Out of the 3 "Insight Porn" examples linked in the article, I think the Paul Graham essay seems out of place. I know I know, this is hacker news. Yet another person sticking up for pg. But I just don't think this essay (or others) is really trying to boil some dream/goal into steps. In fact, in the "How to get startup ideas" referenced in this post, pg says: "So if you can't predict whether there's a path out of an i…
Right there he suggests you become an expert. An expert who is at the crest of the wave in some field is more likely to see over it and get a glimpse of what’s next. I think he is spot on. It’s no guarantee but it’s probably as close as you can get.