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Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

science.org

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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#61
post #37

How do we know that knowledge overconfidence is not even more strongly associated with consensus views?

The study tested the actual knowledge of people on these subjects. They found that people who disagreed with the scientific consensus knew less about these subjects than people who agreed with the consensus, but overestimated their confidence in their knowledge of the facts. So in other words those who agreed with the consensus were better informed and had a more accurate assessment of their level of knowledge.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#62
post #15
post #11

The abstract itself is already contradictory. How can a "controversial scientific issue" at the same time have "expert consensus"? If there was a consensus, then it would not be controversial. Or perhaps there's often not as much consensus as some people would like to believe.

Politically controversial issues (e.g. GM foods, COVID related practices) frequently have scientific consensus.

Depends who you include in the consensus. Plenty of doctors and researchers were shut out of the public debate regarding COVID safety measures.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#63
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators. Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivere…

That is another phrasing issue, because it would be reasonable to take the question as a practical one meant to refer to the things that actually exist, but it would also be reasonable to take it as a theoretical one like you're suggesting.

Well, most of the criticism don't apply to, e.g. golden rice, which could improve the food security and nutrition for a billion people, including preventing severe deficiencies that cause blindness.

> associated with strain patenting

strain patenting isn't really a GM-vs-non-GM issue. As to golden rice-- sure, it's patented, but it's also licensed in a way that most of the people cultivating it wouldn't pay any license fees.

> seedless plants

Golden rice isn't seedless.

> because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA

Because of how rice is cultivated and the fact that it self-pollinates, the potential for this is extremely limited.

> because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides

Not the case here.

> frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators.

Here, there's not much desire to cultivate it "here", though obviously governments abroad do need to approve it. The amount of pro-gm lobbying here is limited, though, because there's really just not much direct fiscal interest in approval (licensing it gratis and letting farmers retain seed neuters that).

Of course, there's some, in part from the desire for an opportunity to show GM as wholesome.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#66
post #29

What the study is describing is a psychological trait known as dogmatism. You might be familiar with the words "dogma" or "dogmatic" in their religious sense: a set of beliefs that members of a religion are expected to accept as true. But there is another, broader way that "dogmatic" is used that does not necessarily have to do with religious dogma. In psychology, dogmatism is a defined as exhibiting great certainty…

Sounds like a more extreme version of the confirmation bias.

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Idk, anecdotally I don’t think I’m right about my heterodox nutrition views because I’m more educated, I just observe the consensus view of eating 12 servings of grain per day is wrong because I feel worse listening to their advice than eating what I naturally prefer. I don’t think education comes into play at all?

Education must come into play. Your own case illustrates this, as there is no such consensus view. And even granting the possibility that you are exaggerating for effect, it's hard to find a field of knowledge with more contention than dietary nutrition, so one has to be even more diligent about acquiring expertise and not fooling oneself.

Education matters for the consensus (for arbitrary reasons) but in my own life, my prior experiences with food inform my next meal. Education doesn’t come into play at all.

Let me pose this another way, why would you expect me to change the amount of bread i eat because of another year education? I already had 13 years of teachers telling me it should be the foundation of my diet and it didn’t stick. Why would the next year of education be any different?

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#68
post #17

You've heard of "Blue skies research", this is what I call "The sky is blue research". Working very hard to show something that is pretty much self evident. I'd love it if we could learn how to change people's minds. Calling people stupid hasn't worked.

"Self evident"

Check some of the other comments here for some critical thinking and analysis

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Education must come into play. Your own case illustrates this, as there is no such consensus view. And even granting the possibility that you are exaggerating for effect, it's hard to find a field of knowledge with more contention than dietary nutrition, so one has to be even more diligent about acquiring expertise and not fooling oneself.

Education matters for the consensus (for arbitrary reasons) but in my own life, my prior experiences with food inform my next meal. Education doesn’t come into play at all. Let me pose this another way, why would you expect me to change the amount of bread i eat because of another year education? I already had 13 years of teachers telling me it should be the foundation of my diet and it didn’t stick. Why would the ne…

The modern consensus (or perhaps official, since consensus may be different) is that you should be eating more vegetables than grains.

So you appear to agree with the consensus of experts that grains should not be the basis of your diet. This has been the us governments recommendation for over a decade (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/MyPlate)

Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You’re in luck, the article speaks to exactly that question! Specifically, it says that the people “following mainstream consensus” are actually less likely to do so “blindly”, i. e. overconfidently. So the answer would seem to be: rather low.

>Specifically, it says that the people “following mainstream consensus” are actually less likely to do so “blindly”, i. e. overconfidently. After the past few years, I’m really not sure if there is anyone left that doesn’t have a personal anecdote against this.

The right has developed their own "mainstream concensus".
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