One of my favorite quotes, is by Stephen Jay Gould:
"The most erroneous stories are those we think we know best -and therefore never scrutinize or question."
Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
31–40 of 132 posts
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#32This is a phenomenon any scientist who has been practicing for any length of time is likely to have encountered. I can't even recall all the statements from ignorance (not pejorative--they simply weren't educated on the subject matter) people have made to me about various physics and engineering topics that have been settled for decades in knowledgeable circles.
> settled for decades in knowledgeable circles.
Which also describes phrenology, the static universe, and phlogiston theory.
A nice collection: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superseded_theories_in_science
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#33You've heard of "Blue skies research", this is what I call "The sky is blue research". Working very hard to show something that is pretty much self evident. I'd love it if we could learn how to change people's minds. Calling people stupid hasn't worked.
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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#34This is an extremely smug and tone-deaf take on the deterioration of trust in public health institutions and messaging. They reference covid in their abstract, so it's fair game to discuss here: where was the scientific objective-truth-machine when the Noble Lies[0] where being told? It was silent and complicit. The general public is not as knowledgeable as experts, but they can sense when they're being lied to, or w…
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Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#35[flagged]
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#36> Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques. In surveys, everything hinges on how you phrase your question. In this case, I'm compelled to agree: I don't believe there's a health risk from eating GM crops. I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; beca…
> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators.
Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivered now"?
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#37How do we know that knowledge overconfidence is not even more strongly associated with consensus views?
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#38> Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques. In surveys, everything hinges on how you phrase your question. In this case, I'm compelled to agree: I don't believe there's a health risk from eating GM crops. I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; beca…
> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators. Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivere…
Those two are sort of inseperable. We don't optimize for some theoretical patent free GM crop world.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#39> Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques. In surveys, everything hinges on how you phrase your question. In this case, I'm compelled to agree: I don't believe there's a health risk from eating GM crops. I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; beca…
> I do think GM crops are bad, though, because they are associated with strain patenting and seedless plants; because they contaminate neighbouring organic plots with non-organic DNA; because they are often sold in conjunction with herbicides; and frankly, because I hate the way their lobbyists act on our legislators. Are most of these an intrinsic problem with "GM crops" in general or with "most GM crops as delivere…
That is another phrasing issue, because it would be reasonable to take the question as a practical one meant to refer to the things that actually exist, but it would also be reasonable to take it as a theoretical one like you're suggesting.
Re: Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views
#40You've heard of "Blue skies research", this is what I call "The sky is blue research". Working very hard to show something that is pretty much self evident. I'd love it if we could learn how to change people's minds. Calling people stupid hasn't worked.
Actually, I think it's important to not just hand-wave but understand the overall psychology of it.
I've known very informed cranks (some of whom are on the edge of being useful contributors to the field by proposing alternative mechanisms and rigorous tests) and poorly informed cranks.
But it is an interesting, if not entirely unexpected finding, that people with anti-consensus views have much lower scores of knowledge in related but not directly connected scientific fields, but are willing to bet higher amounts on their test scores.