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"Since there are no other factors helping Windows Phone’s sales at retail, I don’t see how it’s going to move past the state it’s in today: a platform that reviews well but effectively nobody buys."Retail sales of WP7 phones will be driven by the same factor which drove Android sales - handset manufacturers choosing to build phones running the OS. See Nokia.
The reason this is likely to happen is that WP7 offers a far more stable roadmap and sophisticated B2B relationship than Android. Not least among the benefits are Microsoft's deep pockets, patent portfolio, and consumers' 20+ years of familiarity with the Windows brand.
On the development side, Visual Studio for Windows Phone offers a much lower barrier to entry in terms of cost relative to the iPhone and a much lower barrier to entry in regards to technical knowledge relative to Android (i.e. cheaper development hardware relative to Apple and a more user friendly IDE and languages relative to Android (YMMV)).
Furthermore, TouchStudio provides an onboard IDE to allow scripting by users in a way analogous to bundled BASIC of the Commodore 64, IBM PC, or TRS-80. Because Microsoft is approaching the phone as a true computing device, WP7 is highly likely to gain traction in markets with low levels computing infrastructure by leveraging the higher levels of cellular infrastructure which is not uncommon in the developing worlds.
To put it another way, WP7 offers development opportunities in places without app stores to people of diverse stripes who are interested in solving meaningful computing problems and addressing acute needs without requiring the investment in additional resources (i.e. computers for development).
In other words, Microsoft's strategy appears to include a definition of developer in line with the early days of personal computers where every person may be their own developer - in opposition to a solely consumer centered model of the phone as primarily a media consumption device.
And that strategy truly offers handset makers the opportunity to radically expand the smartphone market in ways that are more difficult to achieve with Android.