131–140 of 184 posts
Anyone remember who wrote that doomsday deck for portfolio founders in like 2008? I can’t believe it’s escaping me, it caused quite the stir at the time.
Sequoia https://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups...
The emphasis on "downturn" concerns me. Aren't reputed firms like YC supposed to look at a 10+ year horizon? If this is true, it indicates that earlier investments were based on the market than the fundamentals of the founding team, market, and product.
Is that supposed to be a bad thing, to consider the market? Less good teams and products will do better in better markets, only the best teams and products do well in hard markets. Shouldn't you adjust?
The emphasis on "downturn" concerns me. Aren't reputed firms like YC supposed to look at a 10+ year horizon? If this is true, it indicates that earlier investments were based on the market than the fundamentals of the founding team, market, and product.
VC is affected by available capital. A lot of investors are dealing with climbing interest rates and loss of value in other investments. That means less money to place bets with, even if you want a 10+ year return.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> In my opinion the pandemic era saw a significant increase in employee headcount I am interested in hearing why you think that. I would have thought that the whole "Great Resignation" theme of the two pandemic years would suggest that people are instead looking to move away from the established companies.
> the whole "Great Resignation" theme of the two pandemic years would suggest that people are instead looking to move away from the established companies That period was characterised by easy money boosting the job pool relative to applicants. Employees had heightened mobility and many capitalised on the opportunity. That window is now closing, with firms focussing on survival over growth.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> the whole "Great Resignation" theme of the two pandemic years would suggest that people are instead looking to move away from the established companies That period was characterised by easy money boosting the job pool relative to applicants. Employees had heightened mobility and many capitalised on the opportunity. That window is now closing, with firms focussing on survival over growth.
Even if unemployment rates triple, we're still not in an employer's market. Companies will lay off to survive, but there will be jobs for laid off to land in.
Broadly, no. We had 0.6 unemployed per job opening in May [1]. So a ~70% increase in unemployment would have neutralised the market.
We saw a 5% MoM reduction in job openings in June [2]; if that continued into July then the ratio is currently about 0.7. Still tight! But tightening, and with all signs pointing to a neutral market before Halloween. (I said the "window is now closing." Not that it’s closed.)
[1] https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/u...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
VCs aren't directly funded by debt. They generally receive funding from accredited investors, and accredited investors are as a rule wealthy. Now when you are wealthy you make money off your money (through traditional means stocks/derivatives/etc...) but you want to get even more wealthy and have access to special discounted loan rates through things like guaranteed loans. So you go to the bank and say here's some of…
Well, in that case, everything is indirectly funded by debt
Earlier quoted context omitted.
VCs aren't directly funded by debt. They generally receive funding from accredited investors, and accredited investors are as a rule wealthy. Now when you are wealthy you make money off your money (through traditional means stocks/derivatives/etc...) but you want to get even more wealthy and have access to special discounted loan rates through things like guaranteed loans. So you go to the bank and say here's some of…
Well, in that case, everything is indirectly funded by debt
In the U.S at least, holding cash is considered the worst thing to do if you have wealth. Which then leads people to use debt