The emphasis on "downturn" concerns me. Aren't reputed firms like YC supposed to look at a 10+ year horizon? If this is true, it indicates that earlier investments were based on the market than the fundamentals of the founding team, market, and product.
In my opinion the pandemic era saw a significant increase in employee headcount, and now we are seeing a "correction" of the employee headcount.
But I think the bigger point is that venture capital funding is really drying up and investors aren't investing as much. A lot of the market is basically "taking a loan to cover a loan that covers a loan.." and the market is no longer giving out loans as easily due to higher interest rates.
>and then list it on the stock market for the retail traders to hold their bags. Out of 3,840 startups funded by YC, fifteen have gone public: https://www.ycombinator.com/companies
That's 0.39%, not sure if this is typical but seems pretty low to me. Anything we can learn from this number, or it's simply just a number?
It's widely discussed in the industry. I like the Matt Levine hypothesis titled "Private markets are the new public markets", briefly stated: that for a while there was a lot more money available for private companies than there used to be, thanks to ZIRP and megafunds like Softbank VF, and also more regulations and disclosures imposed on public companies, which on net makes it more attractive to stay private and not go public https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2020-08-05/money-...
That's 0.39%, not sure if this is typical but seems pretty low to me. Anything we can learn from this number, or it's simply just a number?
It's widely discussed in the industry. I like the Matt Levine hypothesis titled "Private markets are the new public markets", briefly stated: that for a while there was a lot more money available for private companies than there used to be, thanks to ZIRP and megafunds like Softbank VF, and also more regulations and disclosures imposed on public companies, which on net makes it more attractive to stay private and not…
Very informative, thanks for sharing. I guess one of the assumptions behind this is the overall economy is good so the private companies can raise funding easily without going public. Emm but on a second thought, it shouldn't matter when economy is good as companies can always raise funding easily no matter from private equality or public, vice versa, companies may find challenging to raise money when economy is downturn no matter from private or public. So, maybe what you mentioned are the main reasons.
You have the luxury of patience when it's your own money. YC has been raising outside capital for several years (a decade?) now. As soon as you're investing other people's money you're at the mercy of other people's willingness to invest.
They could sell some of their holdings in these huge companies they have 7% of but basically they are saying everything is screwed right now and they expect a decade or more of depression.
I don't read it that way. There is reduced funding available now . So the current batch is smaller. They are still thinking of more than 10 year horizon to mature opportunities but the funds available for that runway is smaller. Hence the small batch. That is my read any way. The depression may be over in 2 years (say), but that does nothing for investor sentiment and available cash right now.
The emphasis on "downturn" concerns me. Aren't reputed firms like YC supposed to look at a 10+ year horizon? If this is true, it indicates that earlier investments were based on the market than the fundamentals of the founding team, market, and product.
YC/VC don't get paid to be founder-friendly. Friendships rely on the returns (mostly from later rounds).
They could sell some of their holdings in these huge companies they have 7% of but basically they are saying everything is screwed right now and they expect a decade or more of depression.
I don't read it that way. There is reduced funding available now . So the current batch is smaller. They are still thinking of more than 10 year horizon to mature opportunities but the funds available for that runway is smaller. Hence the small batch. That is my read any way. The depression may be over in 2 years (say), but that does nothing for investor sentiment and available cash right now.
This argument holds true for most VC firms in general. My contention is that YC's stance on defining the "bar for acceptance" seems to be on how much cash they have. So a mediocre company and founders could have got in the previous batch and a deserving one may not this year. I agree that this is fair and square in market economics. I simply expected more from this institution.