The truth is that a majority of tech companies don't need 50%+ of their employees. Google could lay off vast swathes tomorrow and be immensely more profitable without any loss in revenue. The 2010s will be remembered as the golden era for tech employment. The second we start getting industry wide layoffs, the insanely high wage inflation we've seen will kick into reverse much faster than you probably believe possible…
Totally agree. The problem is, nobody knows how to tell which ones.
On the ground it's obvious. I'm sure everyone here knows who on their team is crucial to their current production stack, and also knows others who would have no impact (or even positive impact!) if they left.
One level up - the direct EM - has most of that context too, but some is already lost. At the next level (Sr. EM or Director usually), almost all of it is gone. At that point, cutting 50% is just guessing. Keep going up and eventually the risk becomes too high that you'll sacrifice your key players along with the rest. Bath water, baby.