Innovation is almost entirely absent
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Innovation is almost entirely absent
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Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#2The state of the art was stuck at a crappy free market local max, where no one was willing to invest in a thing that might pay off later.
Turns out, we all win; someone just had to bite the bullet and fork up the sweetener.
But we really should have smelled an opportunity here. Like the article says, what else are we missing?
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#3The state of the art was stuck at a crappy free market local max, where no one was willing to invest in a thing that might pay off later. Turns out, we all win; someone just had to bite the bullet and fork up the sweetener. But we really should have smelled an opportunity here. Like the article says, what else are we missing?
The article presents it like that, but oil companies actually have a huge incentive to make better faster cheaper cleanup, as they have to pay the cleanup costs. I suspect though they are not really paying enough though to incentivise them, and they should pay higher fines for externalities like spills, eg based on amounts of non recovered oil.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#4I agree that more innovation needs to spread across different fields outside of computers and software. But it doesnt just take the knowledge of technology to innovate but the knowledge of that particular field. In a way you need to be an expert in both worlds.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#5I politely disagree. There are a couple of reasons that computers/software have been sources of rapid innovation.
First of all, there's relatively little government disincentive to innovate, but there have been significant government incentives to innovative especially during the Cold War (e.g. ARAPnet, etc).
Second, capital costs and the road to release are generally lower/shorter in software. I think the author makes a good point in mentioning an X prize type challenge - these prizes reduce capital costs slightly, but more importantly by generating publicity the prizes can reduce the road to market.
However, these prizes themselves and even the author's article are an example of the power of the "sexy" social technologies. More people are gaining awareness of x prize type prizes in part because of buzz in online communities. I read this article because it was upvoted on HN. The very social technologies that many people complain are outshining innovation in other realms are creating a worldwide communication/social system that is just now beginning to become the foundation on which other innovations can take place.
The most important pre-requisite to disruptive innovation in a variety of fields is the very innovation in communication that software makes possible.
In short, changing our ways of collecting, organizing, and communicating information is the key to future radical innovations.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#6Another example of a misuse of the phrase "disruptive innovation". The writer marvels at the fact that nearly no venture dough is thrown at the internal combustion engine. But investment in gas-burning engines would be a sustaining, not disruptive, innovation. Hybrid and electric engines are the disruptive innovations here, and plenty of investment is being done in this area.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#7Assuming that innovation truly is dwindling (not saying it is, just saying it is for this argument), maybe it's just because of exponential growth.
Think of the graph of the square root of X[1]; as x increases rapidly, the change in Y gradually gets smaller and smaller.
Maybe as advances in technology increase rapidly (as they have for the past many thousands of years), the amount of true innovation gets smaller and smaller as a function of the same changes.
Or maybe I'm just being a math nerd looking too much into this...
And also, I think if something was truly innovative, maybe we wouldn't immediately be aware of it[2].
[1] http://thesaurus.maths.org/mmkb/media/png/Squareroot.png [2] http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/09/09/why-we-desire-but-rej...
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#8Assuming that innovation truly is dwindling (not saying it is, just saying it is for this argument), maybe it's just because of exponential growth. Think of the graph of the square root of X[1]; as x increases rapidly, the change in Y gradually gets smaller and smaller. Maybe as advances in technology increase rapidly (as they have for the past many thousands of years), the amount of true innovation gets smaller and…
The square root of s x is not an exponential function.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#9Assuming that innovation truly is dwindling (not saying it is, just saying it is for this argument), maybe it's just because of exponential growth. Think of the graph of the square root of X[1]; as x increases rapidly, the change in Y gradually gets smaller and smaller. Maybe as advances in technology increase rapidly (as they have for the past many thousands of years), the amount of true innovation gets smaller and…
The square root of s x is not an exponential function.
No, it's not. The diminishing returns dwindle similarly as exponential functions grow, and I figured that getting too technical wasn't necessary just to make a point. Downvotes unnecessary.
Re: Innovation is almost entirely absent
#10I agree with the sentiment of the article. How many of the innovative products coming out of the Valley (for example) address basic needs and problems, versus providing convenience, entertainment value, or just incremental improvements? How many don't involve websites, phones or even the internet? There are a lot of things in the world that need improvement but don't intersect with digital technologies.