What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes? • Hacker News Board

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#181

Post by bombcar » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

_gabe_ wrote: post #166

lotsofpulp wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strong labor numbers means wages would be increasing. Perhaps not for all income deciles, but at least the bottom ones (which is a good thing in my opinion since it helps close the income/wealth gap). What would be an issue is the labor participation rate decreasing, which it is, but it may be unavoidable due to things like aging demographics. That means fewer workers supporting non workers, and hence less supply of…

> Strong labor numbers means wages would be increasing How can you equate these two? Couldn't strong labor numbers also be indicative of an economy in turmoil, forcing many people who no longer had to work back into a job to get by? I guess what I'm trying to say is, shouldn't we be taking a look at the data holistically instead of nabbing one good data point and using that to promote a narrative? Inflation, COL, rea…

Strong labor numbers are often correlated with increasing wages (if labor is in short support, wages usually go up) but there's no direct connection; labor numbers could be increasing because people are being "forced" (or deciding to go back) into the labor force because the covid subsidies have dried up; those who took time during covid to homeschool, etc.

All of this all of it is just an attempt to measure if people "feel good" about how things are going, or feel bad; and the general consensus seems to be "things aren't great but they're not horrible ... yet".

The other thing to remember is that lots of economic reporting is 'standard spherical cow' type - inflation may be skyrocketing in the exact things that do not affect you - if you work from home in a house you own on a fixed mortgage, then perhaps the gas prices aren't directly affecting you.

If you're a independent trucker renting, then they hit much harder.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#182

Post by ascar » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:30 PM UTC

nowherebeen wrote: post #36

aulin wrote: post #19

maybe they realized hiring leetcode junkies is not a great strategy and they want to freeze that while they find a better interview system

It’s a way to filter out more experienced candidates because they want cheap and young. Even a Meta recruiter admits to me that Leetcode has nothing to do with the job, it’s just a company requirement that no one questions.

Your logic doesn't add up.

Sure, these tests are not an ideal proxy for job performance and indeed they shifted more and more from general intelligence assessment to algorithm coding assessment. Solving the algorithm is only part of the equation though. Writing readable code, explaining your thought process and decisions and communicating well with the interviewer are also vital points of the assessment. Is it a perfect or even good proxy for job performance? I dunno. Do we have a better one within a 40 minute interview? Not really. Past experience is unfortunately also a weak indicator, starting with the question if what's in the CV is an accurate reflection of the truth. There is also an interesting cultural aspect to lying on your CV.

Every approach comes with its own unique set of problems and as long as the position is sought after people will prepare and try to game the system.

The opinion of a recruiter on the matter isn't really the most relevant either. Especially Google should have quite some data on their various approaches and correlation to job performance and seems to use it. E.g. the trick questions were abandoned as they didn't show a correlation to job performance.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#183

Post by michaelt » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

ahmadss wrote: post #108

kleinsch wrote: post #75

Google has always recruited and interviewed independently of whether they actually have roles open that make sense for you. Earlier this year, I passed the interview and spent six weeks in "team match" before I gave up and took a role with another company. Had a friend who did the same for months for a PM role. Just bc you're getting contacted by Google recruiters this week or interviewing doesn't mean you'll ever fi…

A friend of mine spent ended up spending 9 months in the Google pipeline for a PM role. During the early phases of the cycle (1 month in) he received and accepted an offer at Capital One and joined as a PM. Spent 7 months at Capital One while still interviewing for Google, and then managed to get an offer and team placement. Surprised it took that long, but he's happy he stuck w the Google process.

If a company had a 9-month-long hiring pipeline for me, I would worry their internal decision-making processes would make achieving anything of interest a Sisyphean task.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#184

Post by ffggvv » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

_gabe_ wrote: post #136

phailhaus wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We entered a technical recession by the "two quarters of contracting GDP" rule of thumb, but labor numbers are still strong and that second quarter contracted less than the first [1], which is not what we've usually seen when entering a recession. [2] [1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-... [2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-...

I've never understood how strong labor numbers negate a recession. Like sure your money is worth less because of all the inflation, and your COL keeps increasing but your wages remain the same, but hey we have lots of people working. Maybe somebody smarter than me can explain how these two correlate lol.

they didnt until 2 weeks ago. turns out dems really dont want to say the R word before the november election

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#185

Post by lotsofpulp » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:31 PM UTC

xyzzyz wrote: post #174

lotsofpulp wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strong labor numbers would necessitate real wage increases, otherwise I do not see how it could be classified as strong labor numbers. But it can be negative for higher income groups and positive for low income groups simultaneously.

In fact, you are incorrect. Real wages have decreased YoY. Anything can be classified by “strong labor numbers” by people who are trying to deceive you. Remember this next time you turn the TV on or open a newspaper.

I am getting my information from experience from people who are hiring in the bottom 3 income deciles or so.

Certainly not academic, but I also do not think national statistics captures the entire picture. The nominal wage is also not the entire wage, as quality of life at work can be going up which is also a type of wage.

People can be earning $40k per year, but having to do less work in prior years, for example. Or no longer having to work weekends or evenings or nights.

Either way, the desirable changes for labor sellers would be a reflection of the change in labor supply v labor demand.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#186

Post by parkingrift » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

_gabe_ wrote: post #136

phailhaus wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We entered a technical recession by the "two quarters of contracting GDP" rule of thumb, but labor numbers are still strong and that second quarter contracted less than the first [1], which is not what we've usually seen when entering a recession. [2] [1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-... [2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-...

I've never understood how strong labor numbers negate a recession. Like sure your money is worth less because of all the inflation, and your COL keeps increasing but your wages remain the same, but hey we have lots of people working. Maybe somebody smarter than me can explain how these two correlate lol.

At this point it's just an argument of what constitutes a recession. The NBER definition requires a "significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months."

There is lots of leeway in there for defining a recession to be whatever you want to be. However, I think a GDP contraction of 1% (and decreasing) combined with robust job growth and increased spending would not classically qualify as a recession.

It's clear that the Fed is attempting to slow down the labor market and kill demand. Combine that with ongoing supply chain issues and it's not clear to me whether we are entering a recession or that there is transitory pain from war in Europe and sudden bumps in borrowing rates.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#187

Post by PeterHolzwarth » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

_gabe_ wrote: post #166

lotsofpulp wrote: post #138

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Strong labor numbers means wages would be increasing. Perhaps not for all income deciles, but at least the bottom ones (which is a good thing in my opinion since it helps close the income/wealth gap). What would be an issue is the labor participation rate decreasing, which it is, but it may be unavoidable due to things like aging demographics. That means fewer workers supporting non workers, and hence less supply of…

> Strong labor numbers means wages would be increasing How can you equate these two? Couldn't strong labor numbers also be indicative of an economy in turmoil, forcing many people who no longer had to work back into a job to get by? I guess what I'm trying to say is, shouldn't we be taking a look at the data holistically instead of nabbing one good data point and using that to promote a narrative? Inflation, COL, rea…

It is an economic principle that very low unemployment leads to competition for wworkers via increased wages, which help drive inflation up (as the increased labor costs lead to a more expensive output). The inverse is also true. So, central banks prefer inflation to not be zero, but not be high either (often, central banks have inflation as one of their target numbers that drives their policy).

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#188

Post by mc32 » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

phailhaus wrote: post #123

SQueeeeeL wrote: post #119

The Google internal propaganda game must be crazy strong if the actual employees are believing random management explanations designed to keep people from panicking. The US just formally entered a recession, in within a week of the economic turmoil multiple companies freeze hiring...

We entered a technical recession by the "two quarters of contracting GDP" rule of thumb, but labor numbers are still strong and that second quarter contracted less than the first [1], which is not what we've usually seen when entering a recession. [2] [1] https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-... [2] https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-...

If the labor market is so strong why is there still an eviction moratorium in place in places?

When was the last time the rule of thumb was overlooked?

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#189

Post by PheonixPharts » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

cmrdporcupine wrote: post #104

The people I know who are still inside (Google) seem optimistic that maybe the company is taking a pause to deal with some of its bureaucracy and internal politics issues and with people's complaints about perf. I suppose that's good. From my perspective: They've got way too many people doing a lot of meh work and feeling really ... important about it. And it's on the whole asphyxiating the industry.

> And it's on the whole asphyxiating the industry.

My understanding was that asphyxiating the industry was always the plan.

For those who worked in industry pre-2008, one of the major drivers that allowed new startups to be so disruptive was that startups could very often compete with the then major tech companies on compensation. If there was a difference in pay, it was usually minor and could easily be made up for by better quality of life and a nice promotion in title.

Once Google and Facebook started growing it's clear they realized that every talented engineer on the market is a potential threat. As time has moved on the gap in pay between startup and FAANG and now startup and any company offering RSUs is just too large for startups to compete for talent.

I generally prefer startups to large companies, but can't find a single startup offering comp even remotely close to what I have in my current role. Unless I started to absolutely hate my current position, and found a startup that had essentially my dream role, there's no way I would seriously consider a switch.

My suspicion is that as funding for startups starts to dry up as money becomes more expensive, we'll see large, high paying tech companies start to let go of more staff and start driving comp down. When the market cools Google and similar companies asphyxiation strategy will have been completed. Startups starved of talent and finally starved of dollars will be no threat, that means they can safely reduce labor costs while maintaining market dominance.

Re: What’s going on with Google and Facebook hiring freezes?

#190

Post by pestaa » Tue, Aug 02, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

Grimburger wrote: post #145

_gabe_ wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never understood how strong labor numbers negate a recession. Like sure your money is worth less because of all the inflation, and your COL keeps increasing but your wages remain the same, but hey we have lots of people working. Maybe somebody smarter than me can explain how these two correlate lol.

> negate a recession What do you think GDP actually measures? A hurricane that kills 1000 people increases GDP for instance.

Gross Domestic Product is not divided by population.

GDP per capita is what you're referring to?