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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#211

Post by whatarethembits »

diydsp wrote: post #117
anony999 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time. Up to the point where you tell your car "Hey, go get me a pizza". You are aware that real self driving(L5) is not possible without some AI breakthroughs, right? All the promises you see from Elon are just pure BS. Your tesla has issues seeing a big truck straight in front of the driver lane so yo…

> Tesla software/user experience is not significantly better than a dumb car with carplay or just an ipad fixed on boar That's only part of it. It also includes the prestige and social cache. Once upon a time, apple was the same. Me, i don't care, but all the fancy ppl around me, the multi generational wealthy and boomers, can't get enough Teslas. That desire for luxury may wax like apple... or the coming recession m…

"Prestige" in regards to Tesla appears to be regional at best. Nobody I know (including myself) even considers Tesla at its price range due to competition (Mercedes, Audi, Porsche) completely outclassing it in terms of design and features, which is an important factor here in Europe. Tesla largely appears to be a footnote when it comes to EV choices in this part of the world.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#212

Post by captainbland »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Sort of depends on whether Intel catches up with TSMC or if TSMC just extends their lead over them.

It seems pretty clear that most firms will just go where the bang/buck is (especially ones like AMD and Nvidia where performance is top priority) irrespective of geopolitics. If intel can't attract the right clients then it might make their extra fab capacity in the US economically tricky to maintain.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#213

Post by njarboe »

tsimionescu wrote: post #156
ajross wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity, sure. You only need to extrapolate Tesla's existing revenue and growth out for five years to make them the biggest automaker in history, though. Clearly, yes, it's going to stop somewhere. But a first principles argument like yours is running out of room. It made sense a few years back when they were still popular-but-tiny. At this point, the median expectation pretty…

Are you being serious? Based on what? They are still a tiny tiny player in the auto industry, if we ignore the market cap.

They delivered ~925,000 cars in 2021 with just two factories. That is about 2% of global sales. Maybe a small player (wouldn't say tiny, tiny at this point) in 2021 but they are ramping up production at two factories completed this year and building a large expansion to the Shanghai plant. They will likely produce ~1.4 million cars in 2022 and north of 2 million in 2023. Where they peak out is not clear of course but at least 6 million cars per year from existing sites can be expected.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#214

Post by njarboe »

tsimionescu wrote: post #206
njarboe wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion. If at that point they have the same PE as Apple has now (~25), that would be a market cap of $5 trillion. That would be a 6x gain from today just on regular auto sales. If the only side project that works out is Full Self Driving (which is the major focus of Tesla and occupies m…

> If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion And if they make a hundred trillion cars and sell each for 50$, they will be even richer. But both of these assumptions are absurd, so why discuss them? There is no market for selling 20M $50k cars every year, especially of the same make.

The key is Full Self Driving. Elon Musk has stated that without it, Tesla won't grow like they are planning. Who know if it is possible, but I think Tesla has the best chance with their access to top talent, no spending limits at this point, and a leader that is willing to put and keep the cars out on the road even with the bad PR of the inevitable crashes and deaths. Full Self Driving will save so many lives.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#215

Post by tsimionescu »

njarboe wrote: post #214
tsimionescu wrote: post #206

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion And if they make a hundred trillion cars and sell each for 50$, they will be even richer. But both of these assumptions are absurd, so why discuss them? There is no market for selling 20M $50k cars every year, especially of the same make.

The key is Full Self Driving. Elon Musk has stated that without it, Tesla won't grow like they are planning. Who know if it is possible, but I think Tesla has the best chance with their access to top talent, no spending limits at this point, and a leader that is willing to put and keep the cars out on the road even with the bad PR of the inevitable crashes and deaths. Full Self Driving will save so many lives.

That doesn't make a lick of difference: there aren't 20M customers willing to pay $50k every year on cars.

Also, Tesla is far behind other players on self-driving, and they are losing talent, not attracting.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#216

Post by NotZachari »

dralley wrote: post #132
NotZachari wrote: post #98

While I'll admit that Intel's made several missteps recently and AMD has closed in, the reality is that they pad their numbers using pipeline and microarchitecture tricks to get higher raw stats that don't translate to real-world performance. Intel's tends to be a bit more expensive for the same "tier" with lower listed performance numbers but better performance. That's because AMD has consistently done shit like usi…

I'm not a hardware engineer so I have to ask, how is using "shorter pipelines" supposed to be illegitimate? Just because Intel may do better at the workloads you have in mind, that doesn't mean that AMD's approach doesn't do better in other (legitimate) workloads. Pentium 4 and Bulldozer both had (very) long pipelines and look how they turned out. Long pipelines certainly doesn't fundamentally equal better real-world…

It's not that I think that shorter pipelines are a bad thing when implemented properly, but historically, AMD used that as a way to match or beat Intel on raw benchmark numbers. A shorter pipeline and pipeline flushing when ops hang or whatever means you get more operations per cycle on paper. If there's an issue, they'd just say "fuck it" and flush the pipeline and run it back, and because it's shorter, the pipeline is full and progressing fairly quick. That leads to higher benchmark scores for inferior hardware or stats that the average casual gamer or enthusiast sees. That leads to sales.

As I said, Intel's not perfect and I don't hate AMD. I want the best possible products. I just feel like market share isn't a great indicator of quality here. Threadripper and top tier AMD products are on the same level as Intel's products, but I personally tend to trust Intel's performance at the price point far more in real world situations. It was the worst kept secret in tech for years that AMD was gaming raw numbers at lower price points to sell units.

Gonna be real. This is all just my take on it, and I could be wrong or biased. I know they're not the same as they were 10 years ago and produce legitimate contenders at the top level. I just don't trust their low to mid-tier products.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#217

Post by panick21_ »

enragedcacti wrote: post #195
panick21_ wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are making a number of mistakes. First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin. > depend on…

> First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. i.e. competing with everyone else for the same pie > I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin. Probably because they aren't a very good battery company yet. they haven't even started mining or refining their own lit…

> i.e. competing with everyone else for the same pie

i.e. being a Top 2 most important costumer of every major battery company.

> they haven't even started mining or refining their own lithium

Almost no battery company does that.

> Bloomberg Intelligence

They apparently disagree with most other people who look at that space. I'm willing to bet 5000$ even odds with you if you on whether VW outsells Tesla in terms of BEV by 2024.

> I will believe it when I see anything from battery day 2020 materialize.

Many things are already in the 4680 cells and you seem to believe all those solid state companies who have never achieved anything.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#218

Post by gen220 »

wmf wrote: post #134
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

It's very hard to lose in the short term, year after year, and hope that a black swan event puts you back into a winning position.

Not if you’re partially valuing your position in the stock as an option on that black swan event.

If you think there’s a X% chance of this happening, and that this event will be the catalyst for intel’s value appreciating by Y% of TSMC’s market cap, you can value the opportunity cost of investing in intel in the interim as a (dividend-paying) insurance premium covering your TSMC position.

If it never comes to pass, at least you earned a dividend. If you think Intel’s valuation has hit a trough, it’s both a good investment and a lot cheaper than a put option.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#219

Post by jongjong »

Gasp0de wrote: post #207
simonebrunozzi wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Remember there's also CALL options, if you are really bullish on a company. Less capital needed, and more risky, but if you're right, you're richer.

There's a huge difference between "Sure that AMD will rise in value" and "Sure that AMD will rise in value until exactly next month/quarter/year"

Exactly. I experimented with options some time ago. My conclusion was that they're not good for profiting from long term growth. Sometimes the company may be improving in terms of fundamentals but its stock price could be flat or even going down for an entire year. You would be wasting a lot of money on premiums as your options expire worthless for several quarters in a row. Options require one to have detailed, short term information about the company and one needs to be able to predict the outcome of specific financial reports - This is almost impossible to do unless you spend a lot of time studying the company's operations in detail. I find shares superior if you just want to invest in fundamentals; you rely more on your reasoning skills to try to figure out if those fundamentals will lead to more profits down the line. Buying and holding shares isn't as data-driven as doing so with options. With options, you're competing against AI trading algorithms which have massive amounts of data.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#220

Post by anony999 »

diydsp wrote: post #117
anony999 wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time. Up to the point where you tell your car "Hey, go get me a pizza". You are aware that real self driving(L5) is not possible without some AI breakthroughs, right? All the promises you see from Elon are just pure BS. Your tesla has issues seeing a big truck straight in front of the driver lane so yo…

> Tesla software/user experience is not significantly better than a dumb car with carplay or just an ipad fixed on boar That's only part of it. It also includes the prestige and social cache. Once upon a time, apple was the same. Me, i don't care, but all the fancy ppl around me, the multi generational wealthy and boomers, can't get enough Teslas. That desire for luxury may wax like apple... or the coming recession m…

Tesla still has an "early adopter" and tech aura(IMHO). I wouldn't say it's seen as luxury in Europe. I believe they sell well in Europe because they have the best batteries/range and little competition. I believe once (if) Mercedes and the other brands ramp up production on their electric cars Tesla will have a very hard time competing. They have to deliver either better tech or better value(price). They cannot compete on "luxury" or brand. Tesla itself markets as a tech company (to investors and everyone else). It sells the first move advantage(i.e. battery tech, economy of scale)
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