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People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

robkhenderson.substack.com

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Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#61

Post by galaxyLogic »

chii wrote: post #29
brian_cloutier wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is not a paradox but it can be irrational. When the two choices have similar utility the cost of distinguishing them is high and the benefit of making the correct choice is low. There is a crossover point where it does not matter which option you choose, putting more effort into your decision can only leave you worse off, and this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point.

> this article claims we tend to continue putting in the effort well past that point. it's because people have the irrational belief that their thinking and reasoning more about a problem/decision makes their outcome better. I think the common symptom found in software is design analysis paralysis. A software team end up using tonnes of time fretting about design choices (often as a committee), rather than just use t…

Definitely trying out different alternative designs is a good idea. But it has its cost as well. But you are right it is usually better to try out something than just ponder all the possibilities.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#62

Post by mreid »

I learnt the strategy of "satisficing" from Herbert Simons' "Sciences of the Artificial" book. It suggests not bothering to split hairs amongst alternatives once options have met some threshold for acceptance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satisficing

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#63

Post by galaxyLogic »

ZacharyPitts wrote: post #18

Which is why I enjoy buying things at Costco. They usually have one widget of a particular type. And historically for me at least, they seem to be proficient at choosing good widgets. Thus, my only choice is whether I want it or not, not then another choice of which one do I want.

That is also the reason I dislike languages like Perl and Groovy. They have too many ways of doing the same thing.

Web-design is another good example. There are typically so many ways of accomplishing something, that I actually don't spend much time thinking about it. But then later I found I could have done simpler and better with another approach.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#64

Post by galaxyLogic »

EGreg wrote: post #27

Leslie Lamport wrote about it Simply put, given a continuous function mononically increasing from 0 to 1, given any degree of discernment X there will be some radius interval Y in which the function is closer than X to 1/2. And people won’t be able to tell for a while what’s better. If you add random perturbations people will still be sitting there for a while figuring it out, because it could go either way. Like a p…

That is a good reference, thank you: "The significance of Buridan’s Principle lies in its warning that decisions may, in rare circumstances, take much longer than expected."

A software project may be late because it spent too much time to choose how to proceed. But it might also be late because it spent no time on choosing the best design to begin with and just chose a very bad design and went with it.

That is why my favorite metaphor for software design is the game of Chess. Every design choice you make may lead to a winning position, or losing position. If you lose you may be able to "play again". But maybe not, because of budgetary constraints.

There's just no Silver Bullet that would make you win in chess every time. But you can win sometimes, and get better at it.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#65

Post by brian_cloutier »

jquery wrote: post #54
changoplatanero wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A friend was spending forever trying to decide which of two toothpastes to buy at Target. The cost of avoiding calculating which is better by just buying both was only $3. In cases like that I think it's irrational to spend so much time thinking about it.

A grandmaster logician descends from logic heaven to tell you it was actually rational and asks you to figure out why that it so. What is your response?

It might be one of these:

A) the benefits are higher than you think: e.g. little did you know it but they have an unusual mouth microbiome which means some toothpastes will work and the rest will turn them into a wimpering ball of cavities within the week. They don't quite remember /which/ ones though and are trying to figure that out.

B) the costs are lower than you think: this friend is funemployed and has nothing else they would rather be doing with their time, in fact they find a great deal of satisfaction from knowing they have "optimized" every area of their life by spending more time on their decisions.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#67

Post by [deleted] »

brian_cloutier wrote: post #65
jquery wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A grandmaster logician descends from logic heaven to tell you it was actually rational and asks you to figure out why that it so. What is your response?

It might be one of these: A) the benefits are higher than you think: e.g. little did you know it but they have an unusual mouth microbiome which means some toothpastes will work and the rest will turn them into a wimpering ball of cavities within the week. They don't quite remember /which/ ones though and are trying to figure that out. B) the costs are lower than you think: this friend is funemployed and has nothing…

[deleted]

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#69

Post by Shorel »

galaxyLogic wrote: post #58
quest88 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For me it should be intuitive. My test is "Will I accept either outcome if I flip a coin?". Is so, flip the coin. If not, pick the option that prevents me from flipping a coin.

The issue is it is hard to know whether the two (or more) choices are equally good. If you have no way of knowing which choice is better then you would flip the coin of course. The problem is there typically is a way to possibly learn more about which is better, AND HOW MUCH, by studying the choices. The "How much" -part is crucial. One choice might lead to core meltdown. Often such study does not provide any further…

My algorithmic approach:

You spend a fixed amount of time, if no choice could be made during this period, then flip the coin.

The fixed amount of time could be as short as five seconds. Or the amount that makes sense to you, and you feel comfortable with. If it's one week for you, then it is.

Re: People spend too much time on decisions with equally satisfying outcomes

#70

Post by xedrac »

fellowniusmonk wrote: post #31
Waterluvian wrote: post #16

My “anti shampoo aisle” strategy (that drives my wife mad) is to stop at the first item that satisfies my requirements. “You didn’t even look at the back of the menu!!” “Good point. I’ll start reading menus from random locations each time.”

I like this! I have a slightly different one but I'll try yours next time I am out. Mine is: 'I like being surprised, if you have any love it or hate it "controversial" items I'd like to try that, otherwise surprise me :-)' Along with a genuinely friendly demeanor it is almost always a delight. Worst case scenario they just give me the most popular item on the menu, occasionally I get something weird tasting but neve…

I need to try this sometime. It's all too easy for me to just stick with the "safe" option, and I think I'm missing out on some really great things in life because of it.
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