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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#201

Post by powerhour »

r00fus wrote: post #122
itsoktocry wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt They have huge amounts of debt because they run huge financing departments and therefore also have a huge number of assets on the balance sheet. > Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. They have a completely different sales model, so it's apples to oranges. Most OEMs wholesale cars to dealers, of course those margins will be smaller. > Tesla has…

> >Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. > They have a completely different sales model, so it's apples to oranges. Most OEMs wholesale cars to dealers, of course those margins will be smaller. This is the crux of the innovator dilemma - that their dealer sales model was a moat to prevent new entrants, and it could be their lodestone as well, preventing them from actually being able to compete wi…

I never got the impression that Big Car wanted to maintain the dealer franchise laws. I thought that was something the dealers themselves buy from state representatives.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#202

Post by powerhour »

enragedcacti wrote: post #123
victor106 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Got it, Is there anything in the bill that excludes Tesla from access to those credits?

Here is the summarized set of rules: Federal tax credit for EVs will remain at $7,500 Tax credit cap for automakers after they hit 200,000 EVs sold is eliminated, making GM, Tesla and Toyota once again eligible The language in the bill indicates that the tax credit would be implemented at the point of sale instead of on taxes at the end of the fiscal year In order to get the full credit, the EV must be assembled in N…

Not really a fan of having the tax break at point of sale. I don't want dealers knowing my income.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#203

Post by wtallis »

zamalek wrote: post #168
marricks wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may very well be right, but it's a bit much to say that's Intel's explicit strategy. In the past 12 years the main thing Intel has done is make poor long term choices: going big on mobile too late, SSDs taking off but not for Intel, whatever is gong on with 10nm. Saying they're committed to fabricating in the US while they are, for the first time, relying on other companies to make chips for them over seas... rig…

I am a pretty hardcore AMD fan, but fair is fair: > whatever is gong on with 10nm The modern 'nanometer system' is nothing more than a bizarre versioning scheme (specifically its usually the 'major' portion of a semver), and you wouldn't be able to identify a physical thing to measure to compare different fabs. Intel wouldn't have been competitive if they were still on their own 14nm process.

Like it or not, "10nm" is the official label for Intel's most pronounced and prolonged fuck-up since the Pentium 4 dead-end. The fact that node names have little to do with node geometry is irrelevant here (nobody's trying to compare competing process nodes on the basis of nominal size); what matters is that Intel didn't finish moving their CPUs past 14nm until last year. Their recent and long-term inability to ship a functional and profitable new process across all CPU product segments combined with their inability to adjust their CPU design roadmap to account for their fab problems is highly relevant to any discussion of their future prospects, even if the discussion makes use of Intel's technically inaccurate nomenclature.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#204

Post by Panzer04 »

enragedcacti wrote: post #123
victor106 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Got it, Is there anything in the bill that excludes Tesla from access to those credits?

Here is the summarized set of rules: Federal tax credit for EVs will remain at $7,500 Tax credit cap for automakers after they hit 200,000 EVs sold is eliminated, making GM, Tesla and Toyota once again eligible The language in the bill indicates that the tax credit would be implemented at the point of sale instead of on taxes at the end of the fiscal year In order to get the full credit, the EV must be assembled in N…

What a way to subsidize the middle and upper class :/

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#205

Post by Panzer04 »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #41
nabla9 wrote: post #8

Intel is still much bigger company. Intel revenue 73.39B AMD revenue 18.88B TSMC revenue 58.43B

But revenue isn't a meaningful number here. Market cap should be today's value of expected future profit, not future revenue. So: What's Intel's profit? What's AMD's?

Revenue is "real" - it's the value of what Intel is actually selling.

Market cap is a guess - whether it's justified or not will be proven by actual revenue in the future. A 3x revenue difference is a nontrivial gap, especially when AMD would have to take over the entire processor market to reach the kind of revenue Intel is currently making (or make huge strides in GPU - either way)

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#206

Post by tsimionescu »

njarboe wrote: post #182
outworlder wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The P/E for Tesla suggest it is going to take decades(at the peak, over a century) for that valuation to make sense. Even if it grows to the point that it destroys all other automakers and become a monopoly, it's still too high. You can only sell so many cars. The valuation seems to be taking into account that Tesla is not only about cars, but also artificial intelligence, which would allow it to expand to other mark…

If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion. If at that point they have the same PE as Apple has now (~25), that would be a market cap of $5 trillion. That would be a 6x gain from today just on regular auto sales. If the only side project that works out is Full Self Driving (which is the major focus of Tesla and occupies m…

> If Tesla does make 20 million cars that sell for an average of $50k and have net margins of 20%, their annual revenue would be $200 billion

And if they make a hundred trillion cars and sell each for 50$, they will be even richer. But both of these assumptions are absurd, so why discuss them?

There is no market for selling 20M $50k cars every year, especially of the same make.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#207

Post by Gasp0de »

simonebrunozzi wrote: post #173
jongjong wrote: post #84

I had invested in AMD when Lisa Su took over as CEO. I had been keeping tabs on the company for some time. Unfortunately I needed money to cover my basic living expenses and had to sell all my shares about a year later. Even at the time, it was painful because I had spent a lot of time researching AMD and I was very optimistic about Lisa Su based on her background and her tenacity. I could have made maybe 20x on my i…

Remember there's also CALL options, if you are really bullish on a company. Less capital needed, and more risky, but if you're right, you're richer.

There's a huge difference between "Sure that AMD will rise in value" and "Sure that AMD will rise in value until exactly next month/quarter/year"

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#208

Post by throwawayffffas »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

It's not a really fair comparison. AMD just passed Intel not because it's value is particularly inflated but because Intel's price is falling faster. AMD's Price to earnings is around 35 or so, unlike Tesla's over 100.

Furthermore AMD's revenue is about a quarter of Intel's, given that AMD market share has been growing the past few years and they appear to be capable to continue growing it's not unreasonable to bet that in the next say 5 years they are going to have better returns than Intel.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#209

Post by thirdsun »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #185
noogle wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this about CPUs or all electronics? Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities. Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts. Are chips more critical for…

Both - CPUs, electronics, military gear, etc. Strategic risks such as war, invasions, sanctions, etc. have to be dealt with on a decadal basis. You have to ask: what's the current reality, and what's the trend? The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and wher…

> The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and where your financial system will collapse without working computers and servers.

That sounds a lot like the present.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#210

Post by noogle »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #185
noogle wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is this about CPUs or all electronics? Computer chips are in general a reliable hardware, and top-of-the-line CPUs are in general way more powerful than needed, so there is no need for cutting-edge manufacturing and also an embargo won't halt existing activities. Simpler/embedded processors seem to be a generic product that can be manufactured by many countries, hindering embargo efforts. Are chips more critical for…

Both - CPUs, electronics, military gear, etc. Strategic risks such as war, invasions, sanctions, etc. have to be dealt with on a decadal basis. You have to ask: what's the current reality, and what's the trend? The trend is pretty clear: our world is going to depend more on computers, not less. You have to prepare for a world where drones have replaced your fighter jets, where every citizen has a smartphone, and wher…

CPU factories seem to cost hundreds of billions of dollars - beyond the capabilities of most nation-states. I wonder if this will cause a trend towards reducing requirements (e.g. pushing important infrastructure to rely on simpler chips) as keeping up with the technology will drain a country's resources.
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