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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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191–200 of 221 posts

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#191

Intel was once known for its memory. Then it became known for its CPUs. I expect that they will pivot at least once more, this time to something which will supersede GPUs for ML workloads. This is, of course, very uncertain which is reflected in the size of my long position

>> they will pivot at least once more,

They most likely won't be a third time lucky. They had to pivot after their first 10nm delay but their monopoly in server CPU allowed them to keep pumping money despite manufacturing delays. Meanwhile, that gave AMD a chance to catch up which they not only did but outperformed them. One can claim that it's easy to say in hindsight, but that's the hallmark of great leadership which they haven't had since Grove's retirement.

Now Intel have lost that money making division so much so that all the fanfare of regaining manufacturing leadership has been defused with the announcement of reduction of 4bn in capex and still a focus on shareholder dividend. Intel will need some financial engineering and a split of manufacturing and design shouldn't be surprising. And this won't be some smart timely pivot, but a forced split.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#193
post #192
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll bite: what is your argument?

Didn't Elon sell the house and moved to live next to the factory?

Yes, he sold his seven or so mansions in California when he moved to Texas last year, and claimed to go possession free living in a $50k tiny house.

First off, one would have to assume he suddenly swore of luxury after seven mansions. Perhaps. He does say a lot of dumb stuff when he's stoned that he ends up trying to hide later on (e.g., submarine scandal).

Second, he doesn't seem to spend too much time in his tiny house:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/lifestyle/home-and-garden/elon-mus...

Third, where does he keep all those tuxedos he keeps showing up wearing at exclusive events for billionaires?

Fourth, he's got like 10 kids and multiple wives. And he keeps getting women pregnant. That's literally a luxury.

Maybe we have different definitions. Sure, he owns a cheap house this year that he seems to not live in, but cavorting with other billionaires and treating women like breeding stock and throwing cash at offspring so you don't have to bother raising them doesn't really strike me as living a lean life.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#194
post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year. It also doesnt surprise me that Teslas margins have shrank, I think the price of their vehicles is rendered somewhat inelastic because of the preorder-purchase contract system they use. The vehicle price is more or less fixed at the time of order based on my understanding, and while they can retroactively increase prices, it will likely result in abandonment of the…

> I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year. There's just over 30m seconds in a year, that's a car every second and a half. That seems like it would take a lot of assembly lines to pull off ignoring other constraints. On the other hand, at 184.8″ for a model 3, that's like a stream of them bumper to bumper leaving a single assembly line at 6.65 Mph for the entire year. Viewed in that light, maybe it doesn't…

The level of market displacement is pretty huge - its not clear to me that its possible for that to happen. The market for vehicles is pretty inelastic, like, you cant grow your way there in an organic way.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> First, my understanding is that Tesla has a night and day lead in battery sourcing. They have a factory where Panasonic employees come in and make batteries for them (a little glib, but not that far off), but aside from that they really don't have some secret sauce that we know about. They are putting CATL batteries in their cars just like everyone else and they don't have any mining or refining operational unlike…

You are making a number of mistakes. First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL. They are also doing their own batteries in addition to that. The production of that is behind schedule, but not that far, and I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin. > depend on…

> First of, Tesla is buying massively from Panasonic, LG and CATL.

i.e. competing with everyone else for the same pie

> I can believe how little credit Tesla is getting for literally turning into a battery company over just a few years. Their batteries are gone give them a huge advantage in margin.

Probably because they aren't a very good battery company yet. they haven't even started mining or refining their own lithium, and they have yet to volume produce their own chemistry.

> Tesla makes that many in less then 6 month. And there is a large difference between signing a supply agreement and actually getting it. The lithium industry had scaling problems and pretty much all expert suggest a shortage is coming.

Tesla will have the exact same problem given they have no mining or refining operations. Even if their volume production goes well they will be fighting over the same lithium as everyone else.

> For Ford to get all those materials, it requires a huge number of supply expedition projects to go correctly and that is not at all guaranteed.

My understanding is that those supplies are pretty much entirely from 3rd party suppliers and don't include their in-house battery production which is slated to start later. But hey, maybe they lied to investors about the supply and if so they will pay the price.

> Not sure where you got this from, but its false.

Bloomberg Intelligence, and the actual claim is that they will outproduce them, not just have the supply to: https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/volkswagen-to-overta...

> Andt Tesla has some of the most interesting research in that direction.

I will believe it when I see anything from battery day 2020 materialize.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#196
post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year. There's just over 30m seconds in a year, that's a car every second and a half. That seems like it would take a lot of assembly lines to pull off ignoring other constraints. On the other hand, at 184.8″ for a model 3, that's like a stream of them bumper to bumper leaving a single assembly line at 6.65 Mph for the entire year. Viewed in that light, maybe it doesn't…

The level of market displacement is pretty huge - its not clear to me that its possible for that to happen. The market for vehicles is pretty inelastic, like, you cant grow your way there in an organic way.

I agree, I was trying to examine how plausible it was from a very simplistic model, which is why I said "ignoring other very important constraints". It sounded implausible on the face of it, as it might require cars to be leaving the assembly line at freeway speeds, but it wasn't quite that bad in reality. There are plenty of other things which make it very unlikely/implausible though, such as market demand, as you note.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#197

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Being nimble is preferred. In the long run you can vertically and horizontally intergrate every available business and infrasture. It will save cost assuming those businesses are relevant. In the short-run you burnt out before those business "expired" or fall out of trend. The trick here is to have the right integration at the moment and expand in the market direction that favors it. Is like friendster and myspace too early to boom. Is like every other zoom-like businesses too late. The west has too high labor cost and seriously shortage of engineers. Countries in Asia like China, Taiwan, and SK churned out engineers like the women studies undergraduate in the west. The business environment in Asia will simply edge out the west. Remember solyndra? Remember GE? Remember Kodak? Upcoming is Tesla. There are so many Asian side EV coming in now.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#198
post #186

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Are you sure they will? They seem to prefer dividend payouts rather than capex on new fabs[1]. Combined with them moving to FCF loss - I think that what you described here may be imaginary at best. Given what they said in the last earnings call, a slow IBM-like death seems more likely. 1: https://semianalysis.com/intel-cuts-fab-buildout-by-4b-to-pa...

HN discussion on this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32291356

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#199

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes we do, that's literally what a marketcap is. People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

You might be surprised to learn that ‘Equity Market Cap’ is not the only variable in the full equation which states a company’s value!

When you discover the second variable, you might also discover that Tesla’s ‘Equity Market Cap’ makes a lot more sense vis a vis the other top auto manufacturers based on the scale of that other variable in the valuation equation for those other companies.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#200
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And put bean counters in charge.

This trope needs to be put to rest. Brian Krzanich was a tech insider and Intel fared poorly under him. The current CEO is as much of an insider, and it's still doing poorly under him.

An exception to the trope doesn't "put it to rest," except of course for that exception.

For Intel the interim CFO made CEO was actually executing a strategy that might have worked. I was pretty sure Gelsinger would be a catastrophic mistake because he wasn't a fabrication guy (but maybe they couldn't hire one?) and I'm sad to see this playing out. His strategy depends on one difficult to impossible, and one impossible thing: regain the ability to move to new nodes on a very fast time scale and change the corporate culture to accommodate foundry customers without buying such a company.

By now without having heard of mass firings of incompetent managers but plenty of reports it's still a snake pit or clown show if you prefer, and the latest capex decrease of $4 billion says nothing good. Even if the latter is just that they can't buy the machines they need.

While I'm at it, how well is their 10 nm now Intel 7 node at shipping parts? That was when Intel's decades of bad top level technical management snared their crown jewel.

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