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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#161

Post by mywittyname »

philsnow wrote: post #151
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

> None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Is the f150 lightning not profitable for Ford? I looked just now and can't find any information (maybe have to wait until next fiscal year?). Their costs for that line are lower than most other automakers because they share so many parts and design elements with the ICE f150.

I don't think Ford has released this information yet, and it's really too soon to judge either way, considering manufacturing issues and price instability. The Mach-E went from very profitable, to a losser basically overnight as battery prices skyrocketed.

At this point, battery manufacturing is EV manufacturing. Battery costs are such a large percentage of overall costs that the entire margin of a vehicle can evaporate at the whims of a supplier.

I think we need to wait and see how SKBlueOval does before we can really judge Ford's EV performance.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#162

Post by panick21_ »

spaceman_2020 wrote: post #145
wmf wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's very hard to lose in the short term, year after year, and hope that a black swan event puts you back into a winning position.

Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event. It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.

That assumes the only possible way the China-Taiwan issue can be resolved is some kind of event that would disrupt the production, ie. war or at least blockade of Taiwan.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#163

Post by colinmhayes »

mg wrote: post #69
Aloha wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value. People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time.

Huge difference between $500 extra and $20,000 extra. Most working people can sacrifice and afford the 500. Most literally have no way of affording a Tesla.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#164

Post by CabSauce »

jongjong wrote: post #84

I had invested in AMD when Lisa Su took over as CEO. I had been keeping tabs on the company for some time. Unfortunately I needed money to cover my basic living expenses and had to sell all my shares about a year later. Even at the time, it was painful because I had spent a lot of time researching AMD and I was very optimistic about Lisa Su based on her background and her tenacity. I could have made maybe 20x on my i…

I was in on AMD at $9. The hype was so real between Nvidia and AMD that I got cold feet and sold (for a decent profit). Never in my wildest dreams would I have thought it would be here. I'd be retired.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#165

Post by panick21_ »

axlee wrote: post #75
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

Tesla's only claim to profitability is government-enforced carbon compensation laws. Tesla is basically a greenwashing insurance that masquerades as a real automaker, don't get fooled.

This is nonsense. The kind of argument uninformed people who dislike Tesla pick up on twitter and then endlessly regurgitate over every online forum.

The revenue Tesla gets from credit is very small compared to the revenue of cars and gets smaller and less significant with every single quarter.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#166

Post by fancifalmanima »

panick21_ wrote: post #162
spaceman_2020 wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event. It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.

That assumes the only possible way the China-Taiwan issue can be resolved is some kind of event that would disrupt the production, ie. war or at least blockade of Taiwan.

Not the person you're replying to, but if I ran a chip business (or a country with a lot of military/economic tech dependent on chips-- IE most countries), it would certainly be something you'd want to de-risk if you could. Sure it's not the only possible outcome. But it's a realistic outcome, and one that has a ton of downside if it happens.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#167

Post by chazeon »

Unsurprised to be honest. I have access to a few HPC resource in various HPC center, all the the newer clusters (from ~2yrs) are using AMD EPYC CPUs. These are traditionally the market for Intel. Landscape doesn't look good for Intel.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#168

Post by zamalek »

marricks wrote: post #158
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

You may very well be right, but it's a bit much to say that's Intel's explicit strategy. In the past 12 years the main thing Intel has done is make poor long term choices: going big on mobile too late, SSDs taking off but not for Intel, whatever is gong on with 10nm. Saying they're committed to fabricating in the US while they are, for the first time, relying on other companies to make chips for them over seas... rig…

I am a pretty hardcore AMD fan, but fair is fair:

> whatever is gong on with 10nm

The modern 'nanometer system' is nothing more than a bizarre versioning scheme (specifically its usually the 'major' portion of a semver), and you wouldn't be able to identify a physical thing to measure to compare different fabs.

Intel wouldn't have been competitive if they were still on their own 14nm process.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#169

Post by fallingknife »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

You should use enterprise value (mkt cap + debt - cash), not market cap for that type of comparison. It takes into account the fact that most other car companies are levered but not Tesla. Shows Tesla still very big (overvalued IMO) but not by the same ridiculous margin.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#170

Post by keepquestioning »

jongjong wrote: post #84

I had invested in AMD when Lisa Su took over as CEO. I had been keeping tabs on the company for some time. Unfortunately I needed money to cover my basic living expenses and had to sell all my shares about a year later. Even at the time, it was painful because I had spent a lot of time researching AMD and I was very optimistic about Lisa Su based on her background and her tenacity. I could have made maybe 20x on my i…

This thread is funny, reads like a gamblers support forum
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