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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#141

Post by stjohnswarts »

rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

Given that we might be on the verge of war with China over Taiwan because Nancy wants to sip a frosty marg in Taipei, this isn't exactly sticking your neck out too far lol

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#142

Post by kbenson »

Aloha wrote: post #73
itsoktocry wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and maintain their margins at the level they have them. Tesla's margins shrunk quite a bit last earnings report, so I agree. Selling high-end cars in a niche market is easier than selling 20 million cars annually (which no one has ever done before).

I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year. It also doesnt surprise me that Teslas margins have shrank, I think the price of their vehicles is rendered somewhat inelastic because of the preorder-purchase contract system they use. The vehicle price is more or less fixed at the time of order based on my understanding, and while they can retroactively increase prices, it will likely result in abandonment of the…

> I'm skeptical that anyone can make 20m cars a year.

There's just over 30m seconds in a year, that's a car every second and a half. That seems like it would take a lot of assembly lines to pull off ignoring other constraints.

On the other hand, at 184.8″ for a model 3, that's like a stream of them bumper to bumper leaving a single assembly line at 6.65 Mph for the entire year. Viewed in that light, maybe it doesn't take that many assembly lines to reach a speed at which this would be achievable, ignoring other very important constraints. (Or maybe I made a mistake in my math.)

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#143

Post by victor106 »

enragedcacti wrote: post #123
victor106 wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Got it, Is there anything in the bill that excludes Tesla from access to those credits?

Here is the summarized set of rules: Federal tax credit for EVs will remain at $7,500 Tax credit cap for automakers after they hit 200,000 EVs sold is eliminated, making GM, Tesla and Toyota once again eligible The language in the bill indicates that the tax credit would be implemented at the point of sale instead of on taxes at the end of the fiscal year In order to get the full credit, the EV must be assembled in N…

Thanks you, Those rules seem fair enough.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#144

Post by kolbe »

notemaker wrote: post #16
nabla9 wrote: post #8

Intel is still much bigger company. Intel revenue 73.39B AMD revenue 18.88B TSMC revenue 58.43B

Keep in mind their growth rates though. In 2019 AMD had 6.7B in revenue and Intel had 71.97B.

And Intel just cut its 2023 revenue forecast to low 60's

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#145

Post by spaceman_2020 »

wmf wrote: post #134
rsp1984 wrote: post #125

Call me crazy but I think long term (10 years +) the Intel strategy of fabricating chips domestically is the correct choice. There's a ton of geopolitical pressure in this direction. The US simply doesn't want to be dependent on Taiwan for chips, for obvious reasons. Intel knows this and is trying to become the TSMC of the west. And frankly they're the only ones that can pull it off. I'd be surprised if 10 years from…

It's very hard to lose in the short term, year after year, and hope that a black swan event puts you back into a winning position.

Unless China's clearly stated policy that recognizes Taiwan as a part of China changes, it isn't really a black swan event.

It's more like an increasingly active volcano. It might not blow up tomorrow, but if you deliberately built a house on its edges, it would be hard to sympathize with you when it finally does go kaput.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#146

Post by spaceman_2020 »

asdajksah2123 wrote: post #92
parkingrift wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that Tesla can continue to grow 50% YoY as soon as 2023. The Model S, X, and Y are extremely expensive compared to the competition. I’m in the market for an electric SUV right now. The Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 both seem legitimately better than the Model Y, and they are substantially less expensive. The Model Y AWD Long Range is $68,000. The Ioniq 5 SEL is $52,000. Tesla has historically never had to compe…

Tesla is still making poor quality cars. No other car I've seen spends as much time in repairs as Teslas do.

I did find the fit and finish of the S class decidedly poorer compared to the Mercedes EQS. Tesla simply does not have the craftsmanship capability to build something truly luxurious like Mercedes.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#147

Post by fsckboy »

elromulous wrote: post #18

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

> market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus

how do you know when a competitor with a high market is failing? when its market cap... er, goes down. i.e. market cap is the best measure we have of a company's future prospects. What you are seeing over and over is that the future is unpredictable.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#148

Post by nottorp »

jml78 wrote: post #139
asdajksah2123 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla is still making poor quality cars. No other car I've seen spends as much time in repairs as Teslas do.

If you are taking the model S and X sure. model 3 and Y, negative.

The one model 3 I've driven had the left rear door not aligning with the car's body when closed. It's hard to trust Tesla's manufacturing when you see that.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#149

Post by jjoonathan »

itsoktocry wrote: post #59
njarboe wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

> The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt They have huge amounts of debt because they run huge financing departments and therefore also have a huge number of assets on the balance sheet. > Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. They have a completely different sales model, so it's apples to oranges. Most OEMs wholesale cars to dealers, of course those margins will be smaller. > Tesla has…

> of course those margins will be smaller.

You know that this whole game is about profits, right? If "of course" TSLA's margins are higher, "of course" their market cap will be higher.

And yes, investors are aware that this is a function of market segment. It's also a function of vertical integration, manufacturing prowess, unions, and retirees.

> debt because they run huge financing departments

Debt isn't the right metric to focus on, but the fundamental point is that if legacy auto perfectly executes a pivot, they get to keep their cash flows, while if TSLA keeps up the status quo, they expand their cash flows.

There will be a lot of stranded assets and failures to pivot in the legacy auto sector. Investors know it and the market caps got carpet bombed to reflect it. TSLA's didn't.

> Base rate fallacy, extrapolated into infinity

> Tesla, since they are still a rounding error

Do you not see the connection? Not only can we extrapolate, we can extrapolate far more precisely than usual because we already know the size and shape of the market they are expanding into. Usually these models take the form "TSLA grows 50% yoy until they top out at 1/3 of non-China auto sales" or something, and these are the models that back the current valuations. Optimistic? Sure, but not nearly as optimistic as "base rate fallacy, extrapolated to infinity." Lol.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#150

Post by nottorp »

mg wrote: post #69
Aloha wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value. People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time.

Problem is, Apple's competition is ... not so good. Doesn't go for Tesla vs other car manufacturers.
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