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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have more information? I'm interested.

Options. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/put.asp

The timing aspect is still brutal, though. Market can stay irrational for a very long time, and prove you totally right but totally broke if it waits until after your puts expire.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#92
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

I doubt that Tesla can continue to grow 50% YoY as soon as 2023. The Model S, X, and Y are extremely expensive compared to the competition. I’m in the market for an electric SUV right now. The Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 both seem legitimately better than the Model Y, and they are substantially less expensive. The Model Y AWD Long Range is $68,000. The Ioniq 5 SEL is $52,000. Tesla has historically never had to compe…

Tesla is still making poor quality cars. No other car I've seen spends as much time in repairs as Teslas do.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#93
Does anyone think that all that backlash about Intel IME had an impact on this?

I think Intel lost lots of confidence from domestic users due to accusations against IME.

Not that AMD is any different but they somehow managed to not draw public attention to PSP.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Keep in mind their growth rates though. In 2019 AMD had 6.7B in revenue and Intel had 71.97B.

Should cost of production be substracted from AMD revenue for apple to apples comparison? Intel has in house production, why AMD pays premium to TSMC.

Intel also outsources certain components to TSMC. The only apples to apples comparison would be to isolate revenue for chip sales.

Also TSMC has reportedly surpassed Intel in quarterly revenue, so all these numbers are changing quickly.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I doubt that Tesla can continue to grow 50% YoY as soon as 2023. The Model S, X, and Y are extremely expensive compared to the competition. I’m in the market for an electric SUV right now. The Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 both seem legitimately better than the Model Y, and they are substantially less expensive. The Model Y AWD Long Range is $68,000. The Ioniq 5 SEL is $52,000. Tesla has historically never had to compe…

Tesla is still making poor quality cars. No other car I've seen spends as much time in repairs as Teslas do.

You've never owned a BMW then.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#96

Does AMD outsource all their fabrication now, or do they still run any of their own fabs? If they outsource everything to TSMC then this market cap lead could quickly reverse if hostilities break out in Asia.

AMD hasn't had their own fabs since they were spun off as a separate company, Global Foundries. They still use GF for some things, like the I/O dies on their recent chips.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#97
post #69
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value. People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time.

There are several differences. 1) Apple has massive platform benefits. phoneOS, macOS, watchOS, tvOS devices all work really well together. If you buy into 1 part of the ecosystem, the incremental value of switching another device to an Apple device is really high. 2) The high end in cars and phones are 2 orders of magnitude different. Spending a few hundred dollars more to buy into the high end for a smartphone is a stretch many consumers can make. Spending a few tens of thousands of dollars more to buy into the car high end is not a stretch many consumers can make. Heck, you could buy a new high end smartphone with the amount you pay every 2 months for a shitty car. 3) Apple's devices are the best in class in nearly every measure, especially build quality. Tesla is still far behind its competitors in build quality.

This is not an argument against Tesla. It's an argument cautioning against comparing Tesla to Apple. Heck, it's an argument cautioning comparing any company today or in the history of companies to Apple.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#98
While I'll admit that Intel's made several missteps recently and AMD has closed in, the reality is that they pad their numbers using pipeline and microarchitecture tricks to get higher raw stats that don't translate to real-world performance. Intel's tends to be a bit more expensive for the same "tier" with lower listed performance numbers but better performance. That's because AMD has consistently done shit like using shorter pipelines and rampant pipeline flushing. They have used sacrificing cycles to get the raw benchmark numbers to justify someone "saving money for more power". Intel's made a lot of mistakes recently, but I trust their chips to perform at the price point they're sold at. A quality AMD processor or GPU performance-wise is equal in price to their counterparts in Intel and Nvidia.

I'm not anti-AMD at all. I want competition in the marketplace, but their historical approach to this where they cut costs and use tricks to generate raw numbers makes it really hard to support them. "Consoles and gaming computers featuring them are selling like hotcakes!" Yeah because companies are looking to sell units at the highest profit margin.

I think the elite tier of this competition is a solid one, and I'm constantly watching to see what each company's pushing out. That being said, I think it's widely known that Intel's products in their low to mid-tier offerings are superior.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#99
post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The top ten automakers have huge amounts of debt and pension liabilities. Tesla has neither. None of them are making profitable EVs at scale. Tesla has been hitting their goal of growing at 50% per year for a decade and plans to continue until they are making 20 million cars a year in 2030. Their gross margin on cars is the highest in the industry. The next 5 years are critical for the existing players and many will…

> a stealth bailout of the domestic auto industry with a $7500 tax credit on cars that have just $750 worth of batteries in them. As it currently stands the $7500 limit is only for the first 200,000 cars. Tesla benefited a lot from it and exhausted its limit back in 2018. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-tax-credit/tesla-hi...

I think GP is referring to the Climate Bill being debated in Congress this month where the 200k limit would be lifted and an additional $4k tax credit given to used EV purchases.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#100
post #69
post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think they can continue to grow at that rate and preserve their gross margin. The high end part of the market isnt large enough to sustain 20m cars a year. To give you an idea, for scale, the two largest producers made 10m each in 2019 roughly respectively - and those two are VW and Toyota. I cannot see in any way for Tesla to displace that many units and maintain their margins at the level they have them. The…

I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value. People already see some value in Teslas self-driving technology. And that value will continue to go up for a long time.

> I heard the same arguments when Apple had a hit with the iPhone. The high end of the market is saturated, and soon the competition would bring down the prices. But the price of the iPhone continued to go up. It never stopped going up. Because it continued to offer more and more value.

The most expensive iPhone kept getting more expensive but for almost it's entire history there has been a Apple doesn't compete in the ultra-budget space but pretty much from the get-go Apple has been competing on price and value with older models, the 5c, the SE line, the XR, etc.

For reference, iPhone 1 released at $715 2022 dollars compared to the $400 SE available now.

https://www.gsmarena.com/charts_show_the_evolution_of_iphone...

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