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AMD passes Intel in market cap

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41–50 of 221 posts

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#41
post #8

Intel is still much bigger company. Intel revenue 73.39B AMD revenue 18.88B TSMC revenue 58.43B

But revenue isn't a meaningful number here. Market cap should be today's value of expected future profit, not future revenue. So: What's Intel's profit? What's AMD's?

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#42
post #8

Intel is still much bigger company. Intel revenue 73.39B AMD revenue 18.88B TSMC revenue 58.43B

Keep in mind their growth rates though. In 2019 AMD had 6.7B in revenue and Intel had 71.97B.

I'm curious how the crypto crash and general recession will impact AMD. When crypto prices come down, the demand for GPUs also crashes. AMD makes a lot of money from graphics cards.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#43
post #35

This could give Intel room to maneuver. I suspect they were going to have a quarterly loss, or close to, no matter what so jammed as much future/high potential loss into that single quarter as they could as well. Now that they appear not to have a dominant position (Samsung sells more chips! AMD is worth more!) this will blunt some opposition to the juicy handouts just passed by the US Congress and may cause some opp…

I wouldn’t ascribe this quarter’s woes to some grand machinations. Intel’s situation really does seem that bad and they’re years from recovering (if they do)

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just to clarify, Zen 3 has been out since November 2020. (Zen 3+ earlier this year.) Zen 4 is not yet formally announced (at least not the full technical details), so presumably that's what you mean. Intel's biggest remaining advantage is if you want a laptop with Thunderbolt. It should theoretically be available on AMD laptops, but I don't know if any have become available yet. EDIT: See below, Zen 4 is announced bu…

Zen 4 has been formally announced. Do you mean it has not launched? https://www.anandtech.com/show/17399/amd-ryzen-7000-announce...

Yes, thanks for clarifying.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#45

Remember the days when AMD was like $3/share and Intel was like crushing it. The world really has changed in the last decade.

It was $1.86/share Oct/Nov 2012, quite a rally if you ask me. I think it was still $1.66/share sometimes in '15.

From Nov 2012 (that was after Bulldozer), it run to $153/share on 19th Nov '21 – that's 8255,38%!

I remember vividly back in 2002 studying the newly established 'FT Deutschland' (FT's German Edition) when being in Germany, that FT Deutschland brought an profound article talking about AMD's imminent impact of success (and how it's going to hit INTC hard) with the then-new Thoroughbred-Athlons – I should've invested as I felt something was up.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#46

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes, people think Tesla is more valuable than the other car markets combined. I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation. If anything, I see them having a huge liability - that is a large workforce to reskill, pensions to pay, antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain, old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up - if anything, newer en…

> antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain

LOL, it's Tesla that is way behind in manufacturing. They had trouble hitting their production targets, and they still have quality problems. Toyota/Volkswagen etc will have zero trouble switching their production lines to electric cars, and when they do they will manufacture cheaper, faster, and better.

> old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up

Again, advantage at putting together supply chains is with traditional manufacturers, because of their experience.

EDIT: Tesla seems to have problems even hiring workers for their factory in Berlin, never heard of any German manufacturer having similar problem.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#47

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes we do, that's literally what a marketcap is. People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

> People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

the market can stay crazy lobger than you can stay solvent.

You losses in shorting are unlimited. Every i vestor from Warren Buffet to my dog strongly advises against shorting

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#48

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes, people think Tesla is more valuable than the other car markets combined. I honestly don't see the ICE manufacturers really having an edge when it comes to the future of transportation. If anything, I see them having a huge liability - that is a large workforce to reskill, pensions to pay, antiquitated plants to upgrade/maintain, old supply chains to wind down, new supply chains to wind up - if anything, newer en…

Unless Tesla figures out how to manufacture cars with much lower carbon emissions (I mean, the manufacturing of the cars themselves), Tesla is not going to fare that much better than the legacies.

I hope they do figure it out...

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#49

So I'm very much in camp AMD. But, market cap has proven over and over again to be kind of bogus. E.g. do we really think Tesla is actually worth more than the rest of the top 10 or so automakers?

Yes we do, that's literally what a marketcap is. People who are sure it isn't correct can beat against it and profit in the correction.

I think market cap is a bit misleading. Enterprise value (market cap + net debt) is a more consistent valuation measure.

The house analogy is a helpful one. Let's say I buy a million dollar house but I only have $100K of equity in it so far. My market cap is $100K and my debt is $900K. I'd argue that the house is still worth a million dollars.

This is important here since Tesla has much less debt vs. the rest of the auto industry.

Re: AMD passes Intel in market cap

#50
Longer term (1980-present), it's been a very rough ride for public equity holders of either INTC or AMD: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/INTC,AMD

Intel is still below its year-2000 peak (even in inflation-adjusted, dividend-reinvested terms).

AMD's growth since ~2015 all-time lows is incredibly impressive: https://totalrealreturns.com/s/INTC,AMD?start=2016-01-01 Ryzen was launched in late 2016 -- was that the catalyst?

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