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Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

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Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There’s a ceiling, a point you can never pass, with a subscription model due to churn. There isn’t a ceiling with one-off purchases.

Isn't the one-off ceiling much the same: everyone who is interested has bought it, of at least tried it?

Nope. The one-off ceiling is basically non-existent for practical purposes. Do I pay you a theoretical infinite amount of money to use your product for a small percentage of my income, or do I pay you a small part of my wealth for your product?

With a subscription model, there’s a point where the consumer has paid you “too much” and they will either cancel or find another solution. This is also known as churn. If your avg customer pays you for 8 months, this is a pretty good indicator of how much customers are willing to pay, but you can likely charge more for a one-off cost, sometimes 2-5x more.

Since you are likely combatting churn by finding new customers, switching to a one-off model means you can just find new customers and not worry about churn since it doesn’t exist.

Don’t get me wrong, sometimes subscription models make a lot of sense. Most of the time they don’t unless you’re selling something that has an infinite cost anyway (like immediate access to “all” movies ever made like Netflix) and would be an infinite cost for the consumer to do it in some other way. But if I can pay a contractor to build your app for less than infinite money, then it shouldn’t cost an infinite amount to use your product.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#272

I don't mind subscriptions, I actually prefer them for many things. Especially for software I rely on I want the developers to consistently earn money so they keep motivated to work on it, do maintenance and fix bugs. I don't pay for software, I pay for the thing it allows me to do. Me paying a subscription fee creates an incentive and responsibility to keep things working. If there is a backend component to its even…

It blows my mind that there are people in this thread who think that a business should charge once for a product that requires iteration or continued backend support.

Lots of software products don't require constant iteration and maintenance. They can work for 10 years, 20 years, or even more. Unless you build in shittiness and planned obsolescence, which the printer industry commonly does.

Does software want to become the printer industry?

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#273
post #170

For software, the subscription model makes sense to me. It costs money to develop a working product, then it costs money to maintain it, and, in the case of cloud-hosted software, it costs money to serve it. The subscription model benefits the consumer because it incentivizes use of the software. For example, suppose I want to learn web design. If I subscribe to Adobe Creative Cloud, I am now committed to use it beca…

> The subscription model benefits the consumer because it incentivizes use of the software.

Is that really a benefit? I buy a hammer to meet my needs, not to incentivize myself to hammer things. Even in leisure I don't want to subscribe to my snowboard.

> I suggest that we, as consumers, may need to reconcile with the cost of labor.

Fair if there truly must be on going labor. But some things don't need to keep changing constantly. And if backward compatibility were taken more seriously then we wouldn't be wasting so much effort just keeping shit working.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#274

I don't mind subscriptions, I actually prefer them for many things. Especially for software I rely on I want the developers to consistently earn money so they keep motivated to work on it, do maintenance and fix bugs. I don't pay for software, I pay for the thing it allows me to do. Me paying a subscription fee creates an incentive and responsibility to keep things working. If there is a backend component to its even…

It blows my mind that there are people in this thread who think that a business should charge once for a product that requires iteration or continued backend support.

Of course software needs iteration, but what was wrong with paying for occasional upgrades rather than the continuous trickle of a subscription?

I loved this model, it clearly linked revenue earned by new versions to the value provided by the upgrade.

IMO, subscriptions are intended to shoehorn users who would only upgrade every few years into the equivalent of the “yearly” upgrade cycle. They’re a way of avoiding the accountability that comes with paid upgrades.

Personally, I have two subscriptions that I will dump the instant a quality pay-once alternative appears. Locked-in customers are the worst kinds of customers.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But can a developer live off of $10/year? You would need a lot of customers, compared to a more expensive $8/month model.

Of course. But maybe you don’t need one million features and $500M vc investment.

Assuming a developer gets paid (before any taxes) $5000/month you would need 6000 customers, it's definitely possible but it's a lot harder than a monthly subscription. I have read many times that higher prices also filter out a lot of high maintenance customers.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#276
post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speaking from a consumer perspective, there should be definitely 2 options: 1. You pay for a subscription $X per month and get the newest updates. 2. You pay $Y*X once, but then you are left with the version which you bought in the first place.

Why can't software like a music player or playing podcast function perfectly fine w9thout updates for 10 years. We had same audio formats for 10 years, and same OS audio API.

This is my favourite model. Say you are an illustrator, you purchase photoshop once for 900$ and you update again when the features are compelling. Maybe every 5 years?

These are not industries where people make programmer wages. Combining all of the required software costs is very expensive. Subscriptions more closely match the model/needs of the producer, but they are often quite bad the consumer.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#277

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If I sold furniture, the designs and manufacturing processes and materials usage all undergo continuous iteration, yet when I sell you your chair, you don't have to keep paying me forever to keep using it. Yes, you also don't get updates to it. That is actually perfectly fine for countless bits of software. I have 30 year old software, and it still does it's original job just fine, if I happen to be ok with all it's…

No one is going to use an unpatched bug in your chair to rob your house.

You live in a fancy apartment building that has a lobby with a concierge. The building isn't going to give the concierge $100,000 and tell them, okay keep coming back for the rest of your life.

If the lobby of your building has a fancy chair in it, the furniture company isn't going to expect $10 a month forever to keep using it, and on the flip side, if the furniture turns out to be accidentally made of asbestos, it's the furniture company's responsibility to do something about that, regardless of the fact that you're not paying them every month.

Is there a version of the concierge that's a one time purchase? Probably not a good one? The fee your paying is for 1. continued incentive to continue doing a good job and 2. Training and improvements to the staff.

Is there a version of the chair that should be a recurring fee? Maybe if the chair company comes and swaps out the chair every month, but then you're not paying for the chair, you're paying for the chair service. Should the apartment building have the expectation that under a flat fee the fabric in the chair is going to get upgraded to fit new styles and tastes? No, that's never a expectation when you buy furniture. The only case where the manufacturer would be beholden to you would be if there is some gross defect in the product or if there was some negligence on their part that could lead to injury.

Realistically there's not going to be an issue where a chair lets robbers in, but if you bought a door lock for example, and the lock failed when someone tapped it, you're not SOL because your not paying a subscription to the lock maker, they're liable for their defective product.

There's absolutely cases where software should be a subscription model and there's absolutely cases where it shouldn't be.

I don't need any features that have been added to Adobe Premiere since 2013. I don't want or need updates--my copy of CS6 still works. I'm not getting a CC subscription.

If I needed software to help with accessibility compliance, I would absolutely be willing to pay a monthly fee because the standards change and information becomes out of date quickly. It would be an unreasonable expectation that a lump sum I paid in 2013 would still have my websites up to code today.

--

Forgive typos, on my phone.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#278
post #254

The VC model is to blame, I think. The default VC calculation goes something like this. $100 million fund invested in 20 companies at $5 each. 18 or so go bust, break-even, get acquihired. The remaining two return maybe $100m each after 10 years. With this outcome the VC fund has a meager return, barely outperforms the S&P on a risk-adjusted basis. What VCs are really looking for are big multibillion dollar exits. An…

Sounds like VCs are going to have to either live with lower returns or get much, much better at picking winners.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#279
The author hates subscription services, but the author doesn’t fit the ideal customer profile.

Someone who only pays for something once isn’t a customer that any company should want to attract in the first place, especially when you consider marketing costs.

The author would pay the LTV or even more, but the author is in the minority. Most people would pay some small amount of money once and then happily never pay another dime. They don’t drop hundreds of dollars on their LTV.

The author used Adobe as an example, and that’s where I should point out that it was one of the most pirated pieces of software on the market. SaaS basically eliminates that issue entirely.

Also, most consumers budget on a monthly basis. Ten bucks a month is easier to swallow than $150 all at once for a permanent copy of something like Microsoft Office.

For businesses, they were buying support contracts anyway, SaaS makes even more sense for them.

So, yes, that’s why everyone is SaaS. These businesses that operate on the model know it’s successful and more lucrative than one-time sales.

You might hate it, but the balance sheet doesn’t.

Re: Dear startups: I hate subscription services (2021)

#280
post #238

Part of the problem is that most of these startups simply have too much overhead to offer their product for free or cheap. Like I never understood why most of these basic tools morph into 100+ people companies. A tool like Evernote can be built and maintained by under 20 people. Even at inflated salaries, your yearly burn would be under $10M. This is part of a broader trend of startup overhiring. Like Better.com had…

> Like I never understood why most of these basic tools morph into 100+ people companies. Simple answer: They've signed a deal with the devil (VC funding) and now need to grow to make a > 1 billion dollar exit.

I've watched this happen too many times. Good companies destroyed.
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