Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

bea.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

491–500 of 509 posts

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#491

Post by selimthegrim »

rayiner wrote: post #490
tptacek wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's understandable that someone would reach that conclusion if all they observed was the J6 committee hearing videos. But on a day-to-day basis, people are behaving essentially the way they always have. People still call in zoning violations expecting issues to get resolved, and they still jaywalk. Nobody's asking for a bribe to install the cable.

We’re not there yet, but we are well on the way to becoming a third world country politically. Trump is a politician fit for a third world country. But we also had members of Congress recently abandon their institutional roles and get themselves arrested at protests. I think even Sanders had more dignity than that.

Surely this happened in the 60s (getting arrested)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#492

Post by sangnoir »

seizethegdgap wrote: post #322
rockemsockem wrote: post #270

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've seen the word recession thrown around plenty in the press; who's avoiding saying it? As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to declare a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. This is a preliminary report, I would expect them to wait for the full report to actually declare it. These things work a certain way. Whether that way is good or bad isn't relevant to this partic…

> who's avoiding saying it? No one is avoiding saying the word "recession". The current Executive Branch and Federal Reserve are both avoiding saying we are in a recession.

Aren't recesssions - by necessity, always declared retrospectively? Or at least after they have already started, due to how they are measured.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#493

Post by selimthegrim »

rayiner wrote: post #443
p_j_w wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Conservatives started going crazy long before that. Keep in mind that there was no "The Resistance" before Trump was elected, and Trump being elected is absolutely mind bogglingly crazy. When exactly was that? Republicans ran "Mittens" Romney in 2012 (and John McCain in 2008). Two men whose adherence to institutional norms is irreproachable. Yet, as Vice President, Joe Biden said that Romney would put Black people…

He said Wall Street/the big banks would put them back in chains, not Romney.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#494

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #490
tptacek wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's understandable that someone would reach that conclusion if all they observed was the J6 committee hearing videos. But on a day-to-day basis, people are behaving essentially the way they always have. People still call in zoning violations expecting issues to get resolved, and they still jaywalk. Nobody's asking for a bribe to install the cable.

We’re not there yet, but we are well on the way to becoming a third world country politically. Trump is a politician fit for a third world country. But we also had members of Congress recently abandon their institutional roles and get themselves arrested at protests. I think even Sanders had more dignity than that.

Like many thousands of people, Sanders was arrested at civil rights protests. I don't like Sanders, at all, but he certainly gained "dignity points" for that. The logic you're using to flatten things down isn't working; it's equating things that can't reasonably be equated.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#495

Post by pvg »

rayiner wrote: post #490
tptacek wrote: post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's understandable that someone would reach that conclusion if all they observed was the J6 committee hearing videos. But on a day-to-day basis, people are behaving essentially the way they always have. People still call in zoning violations expecting issues to get resolved, and they still jaywalk. Nobody's asking for a bribe to install the cable.

We’re not there yet, but we are well on the way to becoming a third world country politically. Trump is a politician fit for a third world country. But we also had members of Congress recently abandon their institutional roles and get themselves arrested at protests. I think even Sanders had more dignity than that.

John Lewis was arrested at protests five times as a member of congress and the republic was fine and likely better for it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#496

Post by rayiner »

selimthegrim wrote: post #493
rayiner wrote: post #443

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Conservatives started going crazy long before that. Keep in mind that there was no "The Resistance" before Trump was elected, and Trump being elected is absolutely mind bogglingly crazy. When exactly was that? Republicans ran "Mittens" Romney in 2012 (and John McCain in 2008). Two men whose adherence to institutional norms is irreproachable. Yet, as Vice President, Joe Biden said that Romney would put Black people…

He said Wall Street/the big banks would put them back in chains, not Romney.

You can read the transcript right here: https://www.c-span.org/video/?307584-1/vice-president-joe-bi...

The references to “they” throughout the speech is usually to Romney and Walker, sometimes to Republicans generally: “Ladies and gentlemen, Governor Romney and Congressman Ryan are running on a theme that they announced at their announcement -- and I'm not being cynical about this -- this when I say they say, quote, we're running to restore the dreams and the greatness of this country. What they didn't tell you in that announcement.”

The immediately preceding text is: “Look at what they value and look at their budget and what they're proposing. Romney wants to let the -- he said in the first hundred days he's going to let the big banks once again write their own rules -- (audience murmurs) -- unchain Wall Street.”

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#497

Post by s1artibartfast »

8note wrote: post #489
s1artibartfast wrote: post #362

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I fundamentally don't understand how low unemployment is a counterclaim against economic recession. This is like saying sure you can't buy as much bread, but at least you are working longer. The fact that more people are working to produce less than before describes an economy in decline. What am I missing here?

GDP is an averaging function, that doesn't show the underlying distribution. Poor people can be doing better while rich people are doing worse. Since economic activity is mostly about how the ultrawealthy are doing, there's always a recession when they're doing badly

That's an interesting thought. Do you think poor people are helped more by the employment numbers than hurt by the inflation?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#498

Post by deltasevennine »

namelessoracle wrote: post #230
deltasevennine wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even science can prove that the observed cycle is inevitable. There have been people in the past who noticed the cycle and came up with methods at stopping the cycle.

Rocks when dropped will eventually fall. You can catch the rock and hold on to it, but will eventually put it down, you can do something crazy like build a wind machine that keeps the rock afloat, but entropy demands the machine go out one day and the rock will fall. Best case is you catch the rock, and put it down gently so it doesn't break, but rock will go down.

An analogy can only serve to clarify a concept. If I'm already aware of a concept, then the analogy is deceptive. It serves no logical purpose other then to deceive. It literally serves no other purpose. For some reason when humans hear an analogy there is a slight catharsis when the brain puts two puzzle pieces together and relates the analogy to the original concept. This catharsis serves to delude the brain into thinking the analogy serves as supporting evidence when it is in fact nothing.

Can you prove that the business cycle is inevitable? Why would an analogy prove anything?

I also literally said that there have been methods used to stop the business cycle. And yes these methods have been successful at completely impeding it... but at great cost. It's called communism.

So literally I've proved the statement wrong by showing the existence of a counter example. The proof hints at the possibility that there are other systems besides capitalism or communism that are undiscovered or not created yet that could impede the business cycle without the associated cost. Others could say that communism as defined by the manifesto was never really implemented or that the current examples of communism failed for different reasons OTHER then communism.

Either way, the cycle being inevitable is categorically false.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#499

Post by smsm42 »

8note wrote: post #488
smsm42 wrote: post #427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's why it is important to have some verifiable agreed upon definitions. "Two quarters of negative growth" is something that anybody can understand and validate. Too simplistic? OK, make it more complex formula, whatever - but make it a formula, and make it fixed, so people can be sure neither Rs nor Ds can game it (at least not easily). Instead what we're getting is "holistic criteria" which means pundits can arg…

I'm not clear that "in a recession" is a particularly useful state to anyone. Even with a complex formula, you're still dropping the useful details. Even with a predictable complicated formula, you still have the question to debate: "does it matter?"

People like certainty more than uncertainty, even if it's a bad certainty. That's why the have all these classifiers. It's easier to handle two situations "we're in a recession, we're not in a recession" than track about 50 economic parameters that are interwoven in a thousand complex ways. If you are a professional economist, you probably need to do the latter, but if you are a regular person, you probably have neither time nor capability to do it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#500

Post by yieldcrv »

ngetchell wrote: post #365
yieldcrv wrote: post #228

Earlier quoted context omitted.

left wing media is making fun of this guy too protip: everyone can perceive which ways the parties are different, when people refer to both sides they are referring to the ways they are the same, not the ways they are different

Is the "liberal media" mentioning it or doing wall to wall coverage on this non-scandal? I'm hearing this talking point from relatives so I assume it is getting the wall to wall treatment on right-wing partisan news.

Not wall to wall
Post reply on HN