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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#471

Post by shagie »

whatshisface wrote: post #454
InefficientRed wrote: post #452

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Someone working low-paid hourly wage work can probably make $20K. A few siblings + their parents = 5 people = $100K. Stagger availability schedules so there's always someone home with the kids, and share vehicles. Suburb of top-tier cities? No. Cheapest suburb of a midwestern city? Absolutely. Again, not saying it's reasonable. Just that it's possible.

So you argument essentially is that economic conditions dictate that within a few decade, there will be no restaurants in major cities.

Commuting. It is possible to commute to the low wages places within major cities while living in less expensive areas. This may be difficult if public transportation makes that too expensive and a losing prospect.

Total household income. It is possible to accept a lower wage job if the rest of the family is making more. A spouse or older child can add to the family budget even if the primary breadwinner is making more.

Grants / subsidized housing of some sort. College students making a few extra dollars while living in the dorms where the major expenses are paid elsewhere.

Back to the older children and summer jobs. Getting a job to do something over the summer and get a bit of spending money of their own.

---

Yes, lower paying jobs within higher cost of living areas are going to be having trouble finding people to work there. This has been a thing for many years. Even in the before times, there were constantly places that had "help wanted" signs out and were paying minimum wage. The ones in higher cost areas of the city were more likely to close resulting in more expensive restraints that can be supported by the people who are living the higher cost of living.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#472

Post by alchemist1e9 »

selimthegrim wrote: post #409
alchemist1e9 wrote: post #390

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would absolutely think it was notable because if I saw “Women Economists” or “Black Economists” I would obviously be concerned the women or black economists are being treated badly. It’s shocking that you somehow think race or gender can effect the categorization by economists of economic conditions. It’s fairly quantitative situation and I’m at a loss how different backgrounds would effect that analysis.

Black unemployment vs White?

Would a black economist measure black unemployment or white unemployment differently?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#473

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #443
p_j_w wrote: post #364

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

> Conservatives started going crazy long before that. Keep in mind that there was no "The Resistance" before Trump was elected, and Trump being elected is absolutely mind bogglingly crazy. When exactly was that? Republicans ran "Mittens" Romney in 2012 (and John McCain in 2008). Two men whose adherence to institutional norms is irreproachable. Yet, as Vice President, Joe Biden said that Romney would put Black people…

This argument is all over the place.

The history of allegations of vote rigging goes back to the 19th century; there were loud, public allegations regarding at least Kennedy, Clinton, Bush, and Obama before Trump. What was notable, of course, about Trump's rigging claims is that they were accompanied by an actual effort to overturn the election, something that has no precedent. That wasn't the "elites"; that was an outsider effort.

Election denialism clearly isn't a reaction to a rejection of institutional norms by elites, unless we're talking about elites during the time of Tilden.

I might agree with you about the filibuster, the Tea Party (bad, but not batshit), and the refusal to confirm Garland. But that doesn't help your argument, which is I think fatally broken.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#474

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #457
selimthegrim wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just wondering who the “institutionalists” you speak of were in East Pakistan in 1971.

I don’t think there were any. My sincere belief is that the greatest strength of British society, and American society by extension, is that the institutionalism. People will jump off a bridge if a court orders them to, and so long as the proper procedures were followed. That’s breaking down in America, and politics here is increasingly reminding me of politics on the subcontinent.

I don't think you could persuasively defend with evidence the claim that American politics resembles that of the subcontinent.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#475

Post by peanuty1 »

Workaccount2 wrote: post #77
boredumb wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Government forcing people out of their jobs and then allowing them to come back into the work force is not job growth in the sense of anything meaningful. So no it probably hasn't been seen before, but it's irrelevant, if I took your 10 dollars today and gave you back 8 dollars next week, your bank account isn't growing unless you only look at this weeks balance and choose to ignore the extremely recent past.

That doesn't make sense since employment is near capacity right now and the worker shortage is still very real. Mind you this is now long after all the covid benefits have dried up.

The worker shortage is at least partly bc of people leaving the workforce, not just bc of creation of new jobs (compared to pre-Covid 2020).

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#476

Post by knewter »

dragonwriter wrote: post #463
anamax wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession. No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office.

> The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession. It absolutely does depend on the factors that NBER has always looked at to judge recessions, like employment. > No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office. That's a nonfalsifiable statement that does nothing but show your own political bias.

It's nonfalsifiable but not for the reason you think :)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#477

Post by rayiner »

tptacek wrote: post #474
rayiner wrote: post #457

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think there were any. My sincere belief is that the greatest strength of British society, and American society by extension, is that the institutionalism. People will jump off a bridge if a court orders them to, and so long as the proper procedures were followed. That’s breaking down in America, and politics here is increasingly reminding me of politics on the subcontinent.

I don't think you could persuasively defend with evidence the claim that American politics resembles that of the subcontinent.

What distinguishes Americans, in my mind, is that they're rule followers. As long as the rules are followed, they will accept decisions that they disagree with, or even think are quite unjust. Folks on the subcontinent typically think in terms of right and wrong, or even lower than that, in terms of tribalism such as Hindus versus Muslims. I see Americans devolving into both those lesser forms of politics.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#478

Post by tptacek »

rayiner wrote: post #477
tptacek wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you could persuasively defend with evidence the claim that American politics resembles that of the subcontinent.

What distinguishes Americans, in my mind, is that they're rule followers. As long as the rules are followed, they will accept decisions that they disagree with, or even think are quite unjust. Folks on the subcontinent typically think in terms of right and wrong, or even lower than that, in terms of tribalism such as Hindus versus Muslims. I see Americans devolving into both those lesser forms of politics.

It's understandable that someone would reach that conclusion if all they observed was the J6 committee hearing videos. But on a day-to-day basis, people are behaving essentially the way they always have. People still call in zoning violations expecting issues to get resolved, and they still jaywalk. Nobody's asking for a bribe to install the cable.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#479

Post by anamax »

dragonwriter wrote: post #463
anamax wrote: post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession. No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office.

> The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession. It absolutely does depend on the factors that NBER has always looked at to judge recessions, like employment. > No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office. That's a nonfalsifiable statement that does nothing but show your own political bias.

> That's a nonfalsifiable statement that does nothing but show your own political bias.

It's political bias to notice that people behave politically?

Is it political bias to notice Republicans complain about the deficit when Democrats are in power or is it only political bias to notice that that Democrats complain about the deficit when Republicans are in power ?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#480

Post by DuskStar »

westmeal wrote: post #232
DuskStar wrote: post #202

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's closer to the center than the other major news network, MSNBC.

I upvoted you because downvoting to disagree is dumb, but I disagree, CNN is totally way far left.

CNN is indeed way far left. But there are three major news networks - Fox, CNN and MSNBC. Of those, Fox is pretty far right, CNN is far left, and MSNBC is farther left than CNN.

https://adfontesmedia.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Media-B...

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