US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#461

Post by tootie » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:12 PM UTC

hedora wrote: post #346

tootie wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed lowers rates when lowering rates could plausibly help. The Fed has a dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. Employment remains incredibly strong while inflation is obviously too high which is the clearest possible signal to tighten. The Fed won't/can't react to changes in the stock market, supply chain or foreign policy. It's not just "loosen during recession, tighten during expansion".

Also, as the Biden administration is quick to point out, US industrial output is up. So, people are accepting fewer, apparently better employment offers, manufacturing is being onshored, but (due to lower supply of foreign slave labor and exploitable US workers) profits are down, and inflation is up. Since unemplyoment is low, the Fed mandate seems pretty clear at this point. Interest rates should go up. The market w…

Not to delve into politics, but I defy to you explain what the Trump administration actually intended the output of the tariffs on China to be. Trump very consistently said the tariffs were retaliatory for China "taking our money" with the trade deficit being his evidence. He sent separate negotiating teams in the form of Steven Mnuchin and Peter Navarro who were pushing two separate agendas neither of which aligned with Trump's nonsensical reasoning. As far as I can tell, the tariffs were pure PR as Trump did not care about or even understand the intricacy of that or any other policies he advocated. And FOX, of course, isn't really conservative news, it's Republican news.

In reality, there is a case for tariffs on China that has nothing to do with trade deficits. Biden can't just end them because it will make him look soft and let them off the hook for IP theft and other abuses. Really the president should not have this authority at all, Congress should be doing it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#462

Post by TMWNN » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:13 PM UTC

alchemist1e9 wrote: post #249

engineer_22 wrote: post #218

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CNN headline: Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of Is this a joke? It's like something you'd overhear at brunch from a group of co-eds

Now recessions are racists then?

>Now recessions are racists then?

Everything else is, so why not?

CNN in January 2020: "Coronavirus task force another example of Trump administration's lack of diversity" https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/30/politics/donald-trump-coronav...>

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#463

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:22 PM UTC

anamax wrote: post #445

mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

> Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession. No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office.

> The definition of "recession" doesn't depend on what other things people think happen during a recession.

It absolutely does depend on the factors that NBER has always looked at to judge recessions, like employment.

> No one would be making this argument if it had happened while Trump was in office.

That's a nonfalsifiable statement that does nothing but show your own political bias.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#464

Post by TMWNN » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:24 PM UTC

ishjoh wrote: post #271

txsoftwaredev wrote: post #212

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Female, according to Merriam-Webster: "having a gender identity that is the opposite of male" I would be incredibly offended if I was an actual woman.

I was surprised that one of the definitions of Female is exactly as quoted so I looked up male and one of the definitions is: > having a gender identity that is the opposite of female we have achieved word definition stack overflow!

>we have achieved word definition stack overflow!

I prefer to think of it as the equivalent of an Excel circular reference.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#465

Post by rrrrrrrrrrrryan » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:24 PM UTC

phpisthebest wrote: post #300

mywittyname wrote: post #262

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that we are in a recession. >How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint? Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enou…

They are not mixed signals, the data we use for signaling is flawed for the modern area Take for example the U-3 unemployment number that you cite, what is missing from that is Workforce Participation, we have a pretty large drop-off in Work force participation which is leading to the false belief that employment is "fine", and the quote "mix signal" of being in a recession while still having lower unemployment. Comp…

>>GDP has long been criticized for being a poor metric for the economy.

> yes by MMT supporters that want to ignore the classic model of economics in favor of monetary manipulation for political purposes

It's been said that a cancer patient going through an expensive divorce is the best contributor to GDP.

You don't measure the health of a human by looking at their weight on a scale. When you go to the doctor for your annual checkup, they'll measure your BMI, blood pressure, body temperature, resting heart rate, and look at a few other indicators to get a very rough estimate of your overall health and how it compares to last year.

GDP is one indicator among many to measure the health of the economy. An important one, yes, but looking at GDP without also looking at employment figures, inflation data, the markets, etc. would be tremendously silly.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#466

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:28 PM UTC

InefficientRed wrote: post #233

remflight wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1947 was 75 years ago. Taking 1 example per lifetime doesn’t constitute any sort of evidence to the contrary.

On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package. Supply chains are wrecked and we're in a period during which international trading patterns could massively change. Meanwhile, * China is still purusing zero COVID. * There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world. * German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is bei…

> On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package

And—relatedly—a once-in-ever declaration of a recession of less than one quarter, because of how uniquely sharp the decline in output, employment, and all the recession-relevant measures was, even though it quickly reversed direction due to stimulus and other policy responses.

So it's kind of weird people today pretending that the 2-consecutive-doen-quarter thing has always been an ironclad definition of a recession.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#467

Post by vharuck » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

s1artibartfast wrote: post #362

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I fundamentally don't understand how low unemployment is a counterclaim against economic recession. This is like saying sure you can't buy as much bread, but at least you are working longer. The fact that more people are working to produce less than before describes an economy in decline. What am I missing here?

Low unemployment means there are plenty of jobs available. Those jobs are available because employers believe they can increase revenue by shelling out more money on headcount. So those employers believe there's still money to be made in the market.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#468

Post by dragonwriter » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:39 PM UTC

yuan43 wrote: post #453

Nimitz14 wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1947 saw two Qs neg growth amd no recession. This is something that everyone who is actually interested in the topic will have heard of because it's been mentioned repeatedly by the experts. And yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion. Sad.

Good point, thanks for the clarification. Worth noting that the role of arbiter of recessions for NBER only came into being in the 1960s, long after that incident. And 1947 marked the first year the US produced a quarterly GDP report. This Twitter thread has details: https://twitter.com/bencasselman/status/1552411779040419841 The comparison between an economy transitioning from war footing and one transitioning from…

> Worth noting that the role of arbiter of recessions for NBER only came into being in the 1960s, long after that incident.

So? The NBER business cycle dating work covers back into the 19th century, even if some of it was done retrospectively. If anything, the fact that it applied it's methodology this way to times when there could not possibly have been any policy impact to its decisions just further undermines the idea that exceptions to the 2-consecutive-down-quarter rule are about current political convenience.

> And 1947 marked the first year the US produced a quarterly GDP report.

NBER was doing income and product reports before the government did, the government actually directly was motivated by NBER’s prior work in starting to do them.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#469

Post by collegeburner » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:41 PM UTC

selimthegrim wrote: post #405

collegeburner wrote: post #234

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they can't bc investors are scared af about what the future is. biden and his buddies been attacking oil and gas for years now then they wanna flip a switch and have everybody go back to investing in production. then 2 yrs from now they gonna go back to attacking it and straight up cancelling projects and refusing to permit shit and companies won't be able to pay off the assets. it was a mistake to focus on attacking…

You realize big hedge and mutual funds have started including ESG in their shareholder prospectuses too?

yes lol but most of those just have to invest like 20% of their assets in esg or smth. esg is also more commonly exclude oil companies so they aren't the shareholders pushing that. it's kinda funny some of the big esg funds literally have energy companies as their top performing picks rn.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#470

Post by loeg » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 9:54 PM UTC

rabuse wrote: post #330

loeg wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Employment is higher than it was before Covid and unemployment is down at around the same level. To put it in terms of your metaphor, the bank has given you back $10.10 or so for your $10.

Unemployment doesn't account for people not actively seeking work, which is on the rise.

"People not actively seeking work" includes retirees -- which may be partially explained by demographic trends (aging boomers).