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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#261

Post by outworlder »

digdugdirk wrote: post #206
s1artibartfast wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The exact opposite, Buy long positions at a discount

But you need to time the dip with this strategy, otherwise you're underwater in the meantime. I think the question was, "How can I profit as things get worse?" Or, "What are good ways to protect myself as things go downhill?" My recommendation? Reduce expenses. And think about investing in ways to reduce those expenses - Toilet paper is expensive, buying a bidet can save money after X uses. Meat can be expensive, see…

> But you need to time the dip with this strategy, otherwise you're underwater in the meantime.

Being temporarily underwater is fine, unless you think that economic growth will stop, or you are a day trader.

Dollar cost average if you can.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#262

Post by mywittyname »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I agree that we are in a recession.

>How did we get to a point where actual data can be outright denied or absorbed based on your political viewpoint?

Because the actual data is sending mixed signals. People equate recessions with job losses, but job growth is still high and unemployment remains incredibly low. Businesses equate recessions with reduced demand for goods and and services, yet demand remains strong enough to push prices and profits to record levels.

GDP has long been criticized for being a poor metric for the economy. But it's always been correlated enough with overall economic sentiment that it was Good Enough. It looks like we've finally gotten ourselves into a situation where the edge case issues with GDP surface.

Lastly, not everyone feels recessions the same. I was one of those people who benefited from the financial crisis, because I kept my job and lived in an apartment, so my income was going up while my costs went down. That doesn't take away from the devastation it caused to other people.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#263

Post by hedora »

namelessoracle wrote: post #230
deltasevennine wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not even science can prove that the observed cycle is inevitable. There have been people in the past who noticed the cycle and came up with methods at stopping the cycle.

Rocks when dropped will eventually fall. You can catch the rock and hold on to it, but will eventually put it down, you can do something crazy like build a wind machine that keeps the rock afloat, but entropy demands the machine go out one day and the rock will fall. Best case is you catch the rock, and put it down gently so it doesn't break, but rock will go down.

In this analogy, political corruption is playing the role of gravity.

Covid could have been prevented by mechanisms that Trump removed. The US inexplicably kept juicing the economy with zero interest rates through the end of Obama and all of Trump. 2008 could have been prevented by depression-era regulations that were removed due to heavy lobbying and traceable payments to (bipartisan) politicians. Whatever bubbles pop next (crypto seems likely to be one of them) will probably have been fueled by that same deregulation.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#264

Post by InefficientRed »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

Descriptions of economic conditions are obviously politicized. This was probably always true to an extent, but it really took off during the early Obama years.

That said... my wealth manager has been and still is waffling when I ask him if we are in a recession. It's NOT just political; I don't even know my wealth manager's politics and I have absolutely no doubt he puts fiduciary responsibilities first and makes fact-based assessments.

Unemployment is low and the trend is mostly flat. Housing is doing fine. Consumer balance sheets are strong. Are we entering a recession? I think so. But there are a lot of "but"s which really do impact how smart and impartial people are thinking about where and how to deploy capital.

When I ask my wealth manager "are we in a recession?", he basically says "We might be in a recession. We might not be in a recession. Either way, we should not invest as if this is a typical recession."

Which I think pretty much sums things up.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#265

Post by ceejayoz »

willcipriano wrote: post #245
dfxm12 wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, because of a worldwide pandemic . https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-pr...

Pandemic started in December 2019, gas prices started getting high in early 2021 after keystone was cancelled and the Biden admin began slow rolling drilling permits.

The start of the pandemic reduced gas demand.

The returning to normal(ish) phase - in late 2020, early 2021 - increased it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#266

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

InefficientRed wrote: post #233
remflight wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1947 was 75 years ago. Taking 1 example per lifetime doesn’t constitute any sort of evidence to the contrary.

On the other hand, we just went through a once per lifetime pandemic and a once per lifetime consumer stimulus package. Supply chains are wrecked and we're in a period during which international trading patterns could massively change. Meanwhile, * China is still purusing zero COVID. * There's a land war in Europe with Russia effectively cut off from the Western world. * German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is bei…

> German manufacturing, once a workhorse, is being crushed by energy costs

Hmm, maybe Germany can solve this the same way they "solved" ballooning Berliner rents: just pass a law saying how much energy should cost. Simple. They do love regulations over there.

Or just ask Gerhard Schröder and the rest of their former chancellors who were in bed with Russia, to blow their hot air through the pipes this winter. They have enough of it.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#267

Post by hedora »

yieldcrv wrote: post #228
dfxm12 wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why people are getting all riled up by this. Because conservative media is feeding people the talking point, and they are aren't really applying too much critical thought to the matter.

left wing media is making fun of this guy too protip: everyone can perceive which ways the parties are different, when people refer to both sides they are referring to the ways they are the same, not the ways they are different

Yeah; but people get cranky when you point out that one side is propped up by foreign propagandists that have explicitly said they're trying to destabilize the US.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#268

Post by 0x7265616374 »

disantlor wrote: post #103
andrew_ wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To the argument within my comment, the purpose of the money is of no consequence. It is merely fact that the money was injected. The moral consequences or beneficiary of that money don't have bearing on the fact that the money was injected, and would have negative long-term effect.

Right, and not injecting the money would have a negative long-term effect. I'm saying while it's difficult to be sure, it's at least reasonable to conclude that we traded a short term disaster for smaller long-term pain. Maybe you disagree, but I don't get why people are acting like this is sinister.

Why are your kind so desperate to spin this situation into anything remotely positive? Is it buyer's remorse? Tribalism? Desperation?

We're in deep shit. A lot of people saw it coming, a lot of people ignored the warnings. A lot of people tried to spin this like it was no big deal "nothing to see here, all is well." It doesn't matter if this is a damned-if-you-do-damned-if-you-dont - we're in the shit now, and that's all that matters.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#269

Post by dazhengca »

nightski wrote: post #164
duped wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. We're not seeing a decline in employment or spending. The really bad symptoms of a bad economy aren't there yet. > Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. Which direct actions? And frankly, gasoline prices do not amount to a signficant amount of spendin…

It's been suggested the employment is because people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet, not because there are more people getting jobs. Gas affects the prices of nearly everything in the economy so I have no idea how you would conclude it's not a large portion of spending. I work in commodities and we are seeing massive price increases simply due to fuel & freight costs.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12026620

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/U6RATE

That doesn’t appear to be the cae

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#270

Post by rockemsockem »

partiallypro wrote: post #237

I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…

I've seen the word recession thrown around plenty in the press; who's avoiding saying it?

As pointed out by another commenter the NBER has never failed to declare a recession after two consecutive quarters of GDP reduction. This is a preliminary report, I would expect them to wait for the full report to actually declare it.

These things work a certain way. Whether that way is good or bad isn't relevant to this particular point, by expecting that way to change on a whim you're just being impatient.

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