251–260 of 509 posts
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In this case, the Fed is stimulating a (hopefully mild) recession, by raising interest rates, in order to bring inflation down.
Until rates are above inflation (now around 8%) I would say the Fed is still pumping up the economy, but it's hard to see the Fed push up rates to that level like Volker did the last time the US had high inflation. The Fed set the federal funds rate at 20% in June of 1981 when inflation was about 15%. If the US has to finance much of its debt at 15% something will seriously break.
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That definition was only ever a rule of thumb. The fact is, you can't define it. It's like setting a temperature that is officially "cold". The current economic indicators are almost completely unprecedented in the growth is weak, inflation is very high and yet employment remains historically strong. As much as GDP represents the broadest indicator of economic health, if you're looking for a headline to apply to the…
In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...
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What? Biden and other world government officials placed massive sanctions on Russia exports of oil. They seized hundreds of billions of dollars of their deposits at the federal reserve. Forget about the fact that his administration had already been driving up the price of fuel, this had a huge effect on the futures prices, driving them up to where they are now. Their actions do have effects and sometimes a corrupt gr…
Urals crude is trading $20-$30 below Brent, and China and India have Russia over a barrel when negotiating prices. https://www.neste.com/investors/market-data/urals-brent-pric...
The war has not been going well for Russia at all, stagnant at best https://understandingwar.org/project/ukraine-project
> is substantially richer
Russia has been putting out very cherry-picked data on their economy, which Western journalists have been taking at face value. They've been unable to make more PGMs, and their civilian sector is getting savaged.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4167193
Perun's Youtube channel has been a great deep-dive source into the war economy in general. If you're at all interested in how governments acquire arms, he's an indispensable watch. TL;DW: The time for Russia to win the war was February, now it's a matter of how many people and how much wrecked steel and how much of Ukraine he wants to make into a wasteland before he says uncle.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q
EDIT: Because I can't reply, Good Times Bad Times is good too. They're a bit more high-level and wider scope than Perun, and I'd recommend them as well.
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In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...
CNN headline: Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of Is this a joke? It's like something you'd overhear at brunch from a group of co-eds
I personally think we're in recession and the reason is datapoints outside of this GDP print, what companies are saying, and the fact I know people that have been laid off already. What I find pathetic is that saying we are in a recession is now a political stance. I think we all know that if a Republican were President the entire narrative would shift, with most of the press saying we're in recession while Fox, etc…
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Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
It’s because the media leans democrat. But make no mistake Fox News, BBC, and other moderate or right leaning news sources will call this a recession. The news has for the most part has not called out Biden’s many missteps. Not even John Oliver is making fun of it.
> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…
> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.
> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…
2-10 spread went through the pre-GFC record of -28 bps a day or two ago.
The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…
I’ve been hearing from some people that the rise in gas prices is this administration’s fault.
However, when I look at prices here in the EU, gas prices have risen much more. Is that the current US admin’s fault as well?
What specific tools should the exec use in this situation? EO no more oil exports? EO limiting the record petro industry profits?
What is the complete argument for why this is Biden’s fault?