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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#241

Post by misiti3780 »

_ea1k wrote: post #163
blululu wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’m sure both oil refinery executives and the executive branch of the us government wish that they did have that much control over gas prices. The reality is that gas prices are set by market mechanisms of an international commodity. Gas costs what it costs.

There is a regulatory aspect as well. The current regulatory environment is not encouraging an increase in refinery capacity, and that seems to be our current bottleneck. This is not a value judgment as to whether this is right or wrong.

i pointed that out below and got downvoted.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#242

Post by sacred_numbers »

NeverFade wrote: post #182
ModernMech wrote: post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In those instances, were there also declines in real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales? In the current climate, are those things declining? Maybe the answer to those questions help explain the discrepancy.

Real earnings has been in a sharp decline since 2020, now mostly thanks to inflation: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LES1252881600Q I don't have the time to link the other stats, but they're not so rosy either, except employment. One good stat and several bad ones is still a recession.

I think that chart shows that things are going back to normal. The reason weekly earnings were at an all time high in q2 of 2020 is because the low wage earners all got laid off because of the pandemic. Now that things are going back to normal, the low wage earners are going back to work at approximately the same real wage (although nominally it's probably a bit higher because of inflation).

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#243

Post by dougmany »

ModernMech wrote: post #144
NeverFade wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

Has that been the definition, or has that just been your understanding, which may have been wrong? Has there really been a redefinition? I mean, if we just take Wikipedia as a gauge, they have defined it according to the NBER, dating back to 2008 [1]. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employme…

It appears, once again, the people trying to refine the word are accusing the people keeping the historical usage as the changers. It's projection all the way down.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#244

Post by ModernMech »

gorwell wrote: post #190
ModernMech wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has that been the definition, or has that just been your understanding, which may have been wrong? Has there really been a redefinition? I mean, if we just take Wikipedia as a gauge, they have defined it according to the NBER, dating back to 2008 [1]. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employme…

Also from Wikipedia: While national definitions vary, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross domestic product is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession. From the Oxford dictionary (recession): a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters. It's only now that we're se…

We can accept that lots of people believe 2 consecutive quarters of GDB decline define a recession, while also admitting that the group that officially defines a recession in the US hasn't done any sort of Orwellian redefinition at all.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#245

Post by willcipriano »

dfxm12 wrote: post #176
willcipriano wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gasoline was expensive before the war.

Yes, because of a worldwide pandemic . https://wtop.com/national/2021/10/covid-19-drives-gas-oil-pr...

Pandemic started in December 2019, gas prices started getting high in early 2021 after keystone was cancelled and the Biden admin began slow rolling drilling permits.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#246

Post by [deleted] »

thepasswordis wrote: post #117
jeffbee wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct actions like what? U.S. crude production is near all-time highs. Gas is expensive because ridiculous Americans will pay it and the oil companies figured that out. Shell just announced a $12 billion quarterly profit. The only thing I want to see out of Biden on gas prices is a windfall tax on oil companies where the funds are dedicated to lithium exploration.

Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. Imagine you're a company which builds refining and extraction infrastructure. The government wants you to build more capacity to bring down the cost fuel, but 18 months ago. you watched them just straight up cancel a project which was already half finished. Would you go for this? I wouldn't. And you have a bunch of land lease contracts which allow y…

[deleted]

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#247

Post by namelessoracle »

adgjlsfhk1 wrote: post #231
gorwell wrote: post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm liberal and don't want central planning. It terrifies me that we are headed down that road at all; even seeing trial balloons for price controls. It always ends very, very badly and there's no reason to think this time would be different.

Price controls on medicine in Europe have worked very well compared to America's "free market" by pretty much any measure.

what new medicines have come out of europe recently? (serious question)

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#248

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

ac29 wrote: post #221
NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed has no mandate to generate or maintain economic growth. The two areas in which it does have a mandate are price stability and sustainable employment. Usually, recessions are accompanied by a loss of jobs, so that's where the Fed would intervene; that isn't happening thus far which is another reason why economists are split over what is really going on in the economy.

Employment has fallen slightly recently: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV Not dramatically though, a more charitable view would say that employement levels are fairly flat.

The unemployment rate is also extremely low by historical standards, even when taking into account the various measures of unemployment. There is also plenty of evidence that businesses are finding it unusually difficult to hire employees. The Fed is probably fine with the unemployment rate rising pretty significantly because they probably don't see the current rate as being sustainable.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#249

Post by alchemist1e9 »

engineer_22 wrote: post #218
NeverFade wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the US, the NBER is the institution that calls recessions. The NBER has never once failed to call two consecutive quarters of negative growth as a recession. It's a foregone conclusion at this point. But wait, according to the mainstream media now, we shouldn't listen to the NBER either, they're all just a bunch of "white economists": https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/30/economy/recession-economists-...

CNN headline: Who decides if the US is in a recession? Eight White economists you've never heard of Is this a joke? It's like something you'd overhear at brunch from a group of co-eds

Now recessions are racists then?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#250

Post by _marlowe_ »

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

2-10 spread went through the pre-GFC record of -28 bps a day or two ago.
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