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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#221

Post by ac29 »

NovemberWhiskey wrote: post #161
melling wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed has no mandate to generate or maintain economic growth. The two areas in which it does have a mandate are price stability and sustainable employment. Usually, recessions are accompanied by a loss of jobs, so that's where the Fed would intervene; that isn't happening thus far which is another reason why economists are split over what is really going on in the economy.

Employment has fallen slightly recently: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV

Not dramatically though, a more charitable view would say that employement levels are fairly flat.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#222

Post by markus_zhang »

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

Let's see who breaks first.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#223

Post by beebmam »

remflight wrote: post #214
Nimitz14 wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1947 saw two Qs neg growth amd no recession. This is something that everyone who is actually interested in the topic will have heard of because it's been mentioned repeatedly by the experts. And yet this thread is filled with confident statements by people who clearly have put zero effort into forming their opinion. Sad.

1947 was 75 years ago. Taking 1 example per lifetime doesn’t constitute any sort of evidence to the contrary.

The OP comment said: "AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP."

The comment you replied to gave evidence that directly contradicts the OP comment.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#225

Post by yieldcrv »

ConceitedCode wrote: post #210
safog wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has a technical recession ever not resulted in an actual recession as declared by NBER?

Great question! Not that I'm aware of (EDIT: sseagull provided a good example in 1947). To be fair, I can't think of any time where we've seen 2 quarters of negative GDP growth while maintaining "full" employment and wage growth. This is an unusual recession if it is a recession.

they're all unusual at the time

there are too many variables for a circumstance that doesn't happen very often for it to ever be the same

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#226

Post by weberer »

boredumb wrote: post #37
BuyMyBitcoins wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?

It's fairly obvious there are political bias in american media and always has been. If your party is hostile to increasing federal government or regulatory capture you will be under a microscope and even sacrifice some credibility to attack you, otherwise you can bumble around, redefine common terms, deflect and mislead and have the entirety of relevant and 'trusted' media sources run cover for you indefinitely.

>and always has been

Even just 15 years ago it was nowhere this overt or coordinated. The turning point seems to be shortly after JournoList and CabalList started when different independent media organizations began to collude to push a unified "narrative" rather than the truth.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#227

Post by andrew_ »

librish wrote: post #209
andrew_ wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

it would seem that you are basing aspects of argument on feelings, perceived individual benefit, and speculation. That's not a debate I'm interested in engaging in. I prefer to look at the facts as they are at present.

But how can you argue that we're living in a world that's worse than if we hadn't done the stimulus when you haven't lived in that world?

I'm not and have not argued that. That's where I believe you may be leading with emotion.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#228

Post by yieldcrv »

dfxm12 wrote: post #196
rajup wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't get why people are getting all riled up by this. Of course the White House will try to put a positive spin on things, the same would have been done by the Republican party (or any other political party in the world). As noted above the President can't technically change the definition of a recession anyway, it's another agency that does that. So much ado about nothing...

I don't get why people are getting all riled up by this. Because conservative media is feeding people the talking point, and they are aren't really applying too much critical thought to the matter.

left wing media is making fun of this guy too

protip: everyone can perceive which ways the parties are different, when people refer to both sides they are referring to the ways they are the same, not the ways they are different

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#229

Post by mc32 »

melling wrote: post #69
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The extreme options look like Japan on the one hand and Zimbabwe on the other hand.

We’re not going to land on either extreme but I think it’s clear which is the preferred option.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#230

Post by namelessoracle »

deltasevennine wrote: post #100
ken47 wrote: post #64

No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.

Not even science can prove that the observed cycle is inevitable. There have been people in the past who noticed the cycle and came up with methods at stopping the cycle.

Rocks when dropped will eventually fall. You can catch the rock and hold on to it, but will eventually put it down, you can do something crazy like build a wind machine that keeps the rock afloat, but entropy demands the machine go out one day and the rock will fall.

Best case is you catch the rock, and put it down gently so it doesn't break, but rock will go down.

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