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US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

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Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#161

Post by NovemberWhiskey »

melling wrote: post #69
yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.

The Fed has no mandate to generate or maintain economic growth.

The two areas in which it does have a mandate are price stability and sustainable employment. Usually, recessions are accompanied by a loss of jobs, so that's where the Fed would intervene; that isn't happening thus far which is another reason why economists are split over what is really going on in the economy.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#162

Post by s1artibartfast »

tootie wrote: post #146
NeverFade wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

That definition was only ever a rule of thumb. The fact is, you can't define it. It's like setting a temperature that is officially "cold". The current economic indicators are almost completely unprecedented in the growth is weak, inflation is very high and yet employment remains historically strong. As much as GDP represents the broadest indicator of economic health, if you're looking for a headline to apply to the…

What is a recession if not loss of buying power and material wellbeing?

How is more people working for less pay a counterargument against recession.?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#163

Post by _ea1k »

blululu wrote: post #143
misiti3780 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?

I’m sure both oil refinery executives and the executive branch of the us government wish that they did have that much control over gas prices. The reality is that gas prices are set by market mechanisms of an international commodity. Gas costs what it costs.

There is a regulatory aspect as well. The current regulatory environment is not encouraging an increase in refinery capacity, and that seems to be our current bottleneck.

This is not a value judgment as to whether this is right or wrong.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#164

Post by nightski »

duped wrote: post #151
thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

> and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. We're not seeing a decline in employment or spending. The really bad symptoms of a bad economy aren't there yet. > Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. Which direct actions? And frankly, gasoline prices do not amount to a signficant amount of spendin…

It's been suggested the employment is because people are being forced to take on multiple jobs to make ends meet, not because there are more people getting jobs.

Gas affects the prices of nearly everything in the economy so I have no idea how you would conclude it's not a large portion of spending. I work in commodities and we are seeing massive price increases simply due to fuel & freight costs.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#165

Post by selimthegrim »

thepasswordis wrote: post #128
ceejayoz wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

What do you think this is the type of comment, which the administration also keeps making, actually means? The subtext is: these companies are doing well, and that's a bad thing . How do you think that effects their desire to bring down costs for consumers? And also: yeah, their profits are up, because due to the actions of the administration people are uncertain about their ability to buy this stuff in the future, a…

These companies are not going to invest in new production anyway, they are going to return dividends to shareholders. You are setting up a straw man.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#166

Post by twoquestions »

blululu wrote: post #143
misiti3780 wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?

I’m sure both oil refinery executives and the executive branch of the us government wish that they did have that much control over gas prices. The reality is that gas prices are set by market mechanisms of an international commodity. Gas costs what it costs.

Correct, the last POTUS that did something to meaningfully impact gas/oil prices was Bush II when he invaded Iraq, and Obama a little bit when he decreased Iranian oil sanctions.

For better or worse, we don't live in anything resembling a command economy.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#167

Post by ceejayoz »

paisawalla wrote: post #139
ceejayoz wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

Among other things, that profit owes to the fact that the price for their product was substantially higher at sale time than at the time when they bought their inputs. If your issue is that someone made a profit, then you want the market price to be lower. I personally don't think mandating all actors to altruistically abstain from transacting at market price would be a sound policy, but that seems to be what liberal…

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2022/05/07/oil-...

> The net profit margin of S&P 500 companies, which include energy giants such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil, in the first quarter has been running at 12.3% based on estimates and earnings reported so far, according to FactSet. That’s down from a peak of 13.1% in the second quarter of last year, but above the pre-COVID-19 level of about 11%.

As with food, they've realized the public will pay higher margins than they previously thought they could get away with.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#168

Post by nightski »

ceejayoz wrote: post #150
misiti3780 wrote: post #140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, they do. They control things like this. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/02/24/biden-administration-pausing... We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. And before you start calling me a republican, im not one, but this is just a really stupid idea because it's decisions like this that will cause republicans to be ele…

> We could drill our away out of this problem, but we are not, because the the biden administration is being held hostage by the progressive left. Saying this doesn't make it true. https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-452931879750 > The U.S. was producing 11.185 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021, compared with an average of 11.283 million barrels per day in 2020, according to data from the U.S. Energy…

You can't look at the oil market in isolation like that. Saudi was dumping oil at that point, producing way more than necessary. So much so futures went negative. That is not the case today.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#169

Post by selimthegrim »

thepasswordis wrote: post #149
ceejayoz wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Quoted post unavailable.

What? Biden and other world government officials placed massive sanctions on Russia exports of oil. They seized hundreds of billions of dollars of their deposits at the federal reserve. Forget about the fact that his administration had already been driving up the price of fuel, this had a huge effect on the futures prices, driving them up to where they are now. Their actions do have effects and sometimes a corrupt gr…

And in your ideal world where Russia has zero consequences for anything are you fine with them invading the Middle East for more oil?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#170

Post by ModernMech »

NeverFade wrote: post #159
ModernMech wrote: post #144

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has that been the definition, or has that just been your understanding, which may have been wrong? Has there really been a redefinition? I mean, if we just take Wikipedia as a gauge, they have defined it according to the NBER, dating back to 2008 [1]. A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employme…

The NBER has called a recession every single time we had two back-to-back quarters of negative growth. The news media is known to aggressively jump to conclusions to produce headlines. It's a notable exception that they are so cautious all of a sudden about what is really a foregone conclusion.

In those instances, were there also declines in real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales? In the current climate, are those things declining? Maybe the answer to those questions help explain the discrepancy.
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