US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate) • Hacker News Board

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#121

Post by junofan » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:32 PM UTC

jhoward321 wrote: post #109

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

They didn't redefine recession, that's been defined by NBER. I agree there's some spin, but this statement isn't correct.

The NBER is a private think tank. You may be confusing them with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is an independent federal agency.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#122

Post by shagie » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

slaw wrote: post #78

shagie wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we survived the economics of the 80s, we can survive the 2020s. Next, pick a country and its inflation rate. The Euro? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/01/business/eurozone-inflati... Pick another currency that meets the requirements of being a reserve currency and then look at its inflation rate.

In the 80s inflation was high, but interest rate was above inflation. This time inflation is 8% above interest rate.

That is the result from the rate of inflation changes being so steep. As it is, the interest rate is being adjusted at the fastest reasonable (and predictable) rate. There were more than a few people shocked with the first 0.75% increase... not so many this past time.

For addressing inflation, the fed's tools are rather blunt (adjusting interest rate). The issues of disrupted logistics and energy cost increases are ones that the fed has little direct control over. The monetary policy tools are being used to the greatest degree they can. The fiscal policy tools have been left rather idle as those require political will to use.

Returning to the reserve currency question - is there another currency that meets the requirements? Saying "the euro" is ok - and that represents the second largest reserve currency holdings, but, if you are pointing to inflation, it is hitting just as hard in Europe. The yen and the pound sterling have their own issues and China's currency has another set of issues.

The crystal ball gazing of "what about 15% inflation and reserve currency" misses out on what is happening to the rest of the world and what can and is being done to address inflation.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#123

Post by misiti3780 » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #118

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#124

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:33 PM UTC

thepasswordis wrote: post #117

jeffbee wrote: post #101

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Direct actions like what? U.S. crude production is near all-time highs. Gas is expensive because ridiculous Americans will pay it and the oil companies figured that out. Shell just announced a $12 billion quarterly profit. The only thing I want to see out of Biden on gas prices is a windfall tax on oil companies where the funds are dedicated to lithium exploration.

Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline. Imagine you're a company which builds refining and extraction infrastructure. The government wants you to build more capacity to bring down the cost fuel, but 18 months ago. you watched them just straight up cancel a project which was already half finished. Would you go for this? I wouldn't. And you have a bunch of land lease contracts which allow y…

> Direct actions like immediately cancelling the keystone XL pipeline.

It's unlikely an unfinished pipeline for export purposes had a significant impact on current gasoline prices.

https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-895299166310

"Experts tell The Associated Press that the Keystone XL pipeline cancellation isn’t affecting what’s happening in the oil market today. It was never operational when it was shut down, and was not slated to go into service until 2023, according to a press release from TC Energy, the company constructing the project."

"Even if the Keystone XL pipeline had been completed, the amount of oil it was designed to transport would have been a drop in the bucket for U.S. demand, experts noted. The U.S. used nearly 20 million barrels of oil a day last year, while global consumption of oil was near 100 million barrels. The pipeline would have contributed less than 1% to the world supply of oil, according to AP reporting."

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#125

Post by bandyaboot » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:34 PM UTC

rajin444 wrote: post #83

wallawe wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But we can stop lying about the definition of a recession. Biden admin changing the definition to avoid loss political points is about as nonsensical as blaming inflation squarely on Putin. The disinformation needs to stop.

[flagged]

It's similar to global warming/climate change. Moving from the former to the latter wasn't some nefarious plot to move the goalposts. The former is an imprecise term which hadn't mattered very much until that imprecision began to be weaponized by those with an agenda.

Same thing with vaccines, the previous definition was inaccurate--but up until the covid vaccines, nobody pretended to be bothered by it. There hasn't been any notable effort to discredit flu vaccines because they don't offer permanent, or even particularly reliable immunity in the many years that they have existed. Along came the anti covid vaccine folks to weaponize the inaccurate definition--so, in response, the definition is updated to be more accurate.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#126

Post by gorwell » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:35 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #118

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

Is the idea here that SHEL.L suddenly became a profit focused company after all these decades?

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#127

Post by hackerlight » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:35 PM UTC

czstar wrote: post #33

tiahura wrote: post #27

Quoted post unavailable.

Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.

They lied when they blamed inflation on Putin's invasion, only one week into the invasion. At best Putin's invasion explained 5% of that number at that early stage, given the lead-lag in the CPI number and the predominant causal factors being supply chain issues from COVID and recent monetary and fiscal stimulus.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#128

Post by thepasswordis » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:36 PM UTC

ceejayoz wrote: post #118

thepasswordis wrote: post #91

The way that the White House, and by extension the administrative branch of the government has decided to redefine "recession" and imply that the economy is doing really well right now is actually scary. These people do have huge levers that control our lives that they can pull. Their actions do have massive effects on the American economy, and by extension the economy of the rest of the world. The actions they're ta…

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

What do you think this is the type of comment, which the administration also keeps making, actually means?

The subtext is: these companies are doing well, and that's a bad thing. How do you think that effects their desire to bring down costs for consumers?

And also: yeah, their profits are up, because due to the actions of the administration people are uncertain about their ability to buy this stuff in the future, and the futures cost goes up.

Watch the end of this clip: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0tOQ5AaFJdU

The question is: do you think this will accelerate us towards a a green energy future.

Her answer: yes, and that's a good thing for the following reasons.

BTW, a green energy future is one where these oil companies are out of business. The energy secretary is saying that she wants these companies to accelerate their own demise at a decreased profit, and how there eventual disappearance is a good thing.

Yeah, gas prices are up. No kidding.

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#129

Post by [deleted] » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:36 PM UTC

NeverFade wrote: post #99

yuan43 wrote: post #43

> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…

> To some, this is a recession Not "to some", two back-to-back negative GDP stats has been the definition of a recession for my entire life. Now suddenly it's questionable, because the current administration would like to shrug away its failures, and too many in the media are helping them do it. This ad-hoc re-definition of language to suit political purposes is scary and Orwellian.

[deleted]

Re: US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)

#130

Post by ceejayoz » Thu, Jul 28, 2022, 2:36 PM UTC

misiti3780 wrote: post #123

ceejayoz wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Gas if still $4.2 national average per gallon. That's HUGE, and the direct actions of the administration are to blame for this. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/shell-reports-record... "Shell (SHEL.L) posted record results on Thursday, with a $11.5 billion second-quarter profit smashing the mark it set only three months ago, lifted by strong gas trading and a tripling of refining profit. The company also ann…

what's your point? you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices, it's only the evil+greedy oil execs?

> you dont think the administration plays any role in the increased gas prices

Essentially correct. Presidents have very little control over this.