81–90 of 509 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” If ever there were a case of 20:20 hindsight, that's one of them.
Every day for a year, every single business leader in every single industry, has been on CNBC warning about inflation. The only ones who didn’t get it are in the present administration.
> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…
No group of people, Republican or Democrat, can stop the perpetual cycles of human history. At best, we can only delay the inevitable.
But we can stop lying about the definition of a recession. Biden admin changing the definition to avoid loss political points is about as nonsensical as blaming inflation squarely on Putin. The disinformation needs to stop.
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According to the White House, it is not [1] https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/written-materials/2022/07/21/...
Kind of amazing how this administration isn’t getting the kind of ridicule that would be expected if the previous administration tried to deny a recession was happening according to the objective definition by including a subjective qualifier. Is this not the same thing as ‘alternate facts’?
They are basing it off facts. The NBER is the one who defines a recessions. They haven't done so (that I'm aware of) as of right now.
It might be that it will eventually be the case, but the arbitrator of this hasn't ruled on it.
Calling it a recession officially now would be the alternate fact.
Basically, it's like how someone can be guilty of something, but you still have to say "alleged" before referencing the crime.
Yes, you might have a million witnesses, but they aren't guilty until they are guilty.
And I'd much rather have a government that abides by these rules than not. Offhanded remarks based on willful disregard to order should not be encouraged.
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While I do believe supply chain issues had a lot to do with triggering, I cannot look past the invention of 1.5 trillion dollars that were injected into the economy, nor can I look past the hit to labor resulting from government policies around covid . The use of "temporary" or "transitory" was political damage control, the tail wagging the dog. I view your comment as more of the kind of spin that we're seeing in the…
But you DO look past the purpose of that injection of money, which was to protect jobs/economy. Whether it could have been implemented is one thing to be debated; to assume/pretend it had absolutely no positive effect, and that we would have been off than we are currently without it, seems disingenuous.
So it’s official now
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That the definition of a recession has always been 2 quarters of negative GDP. The administration now believes there is nuance in the numbers, so what was the accepted definition in the past is no longer. The fact the media on whole has decided it's ok to redefine a commonly accepted definition when the administration promotes it lends itself to the media being a mouthpiece for the administration. I am willing to und…
> This doesn't even touch on the self fulfilling prophecy of hearing that the country is in a recession. That's not how recessions work. There is always people predicting a recession and always people predicting a turnaround or growth. It's quite simple, however, to engineer a recession when you raise interest rates for such a heavily indebted economy.
I am unsure the point you are making. My point was related to mindset and I should have clarified. If a group of people, normal non economic expert citizens, believe a recession is here they change their behavior. The media plays a part in amplifying it. At that point it doesn't matter what is happening at a macro economic level.
I am for introducing nuance to the judgement of a recession or not. I am not for doing it right before numbers are released the admin saying, "Well, there is nuance in the determination" before the numbers are released. At best all you are doing is introducing confusion to the non economic expert citizens and at worst you are attempting to gaslight people.
I hope that helps explain my thoughts.
> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…
Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Do you have evidence she was lying versus being wrong? A number of notable economists thought inflation was transitory. It’s hard to predict things like the effect the war in Ukraine would have and the effect the shipping industry doing its thing would have.
The lying is the present attempt to tell us we’re not in a recession. And her failure to appreciate the scale of the price inflation problem was not just a case of being “wrong.” She was unable to see the worst inflation in 40 years when it was standing right in front of her. She’s a miserable failure.
You can disagree with how that is done, sure, but that's meaningless to the discussion.
Officially, we aren't in one.
Claiming otherwise is like me saying you are guilty of a crime before you are found guilty of a crime.
> Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent. That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it's the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed…
Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession? At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.