Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

federalreserve.gov

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 329 posts

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#141

Post by vuln »

pm90 wrote: post #76
ParksNet wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easiest way to increase labor supply is to immediately increase the retirement age to 70. Welfare and retirement systems across the West are insolvent at current settings anyway.

No. Easiest by far is to relax immigration restrictions.

The US has shattered record numbers of migrants crossing the southern boarder every month for over a year. It has had zero deflationary effects if anything it causes the supply to shrink even further as demand skyrockets. Migrants still need to be housed, feed, clothed and transported. There is no easy way out.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#142

Post by JumpCrisscross »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #129
mywittyname wrote: post #47

I'm skeptical that interest rate hikes will curb inflation. I'm even skeptical that a recession will curb inflation. We have significant shortages of so many products and services that people rely on and the only way I see the situation improving is if supplies increase, maybe dramatically. It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. Those are things we just need t…

Probably just my pet peeve, but everyone conflates inflation with CPI. We've had the ridiculous inflation starting in 2008 (and doubling down in 2020), now we're seeing the CPI. Why this matters (just my theory): previously all that new money went to banks, the stock market, VC, etc., not so much directly to consumers. So we saw the stock market explode, but not so much for the price of eggs. Now we have supply chain…

> everyone conflates inflation with CPI. We've had the ridiculous inflation starting in 2008 (and doubling down in 2020)

You may be confusing money supply with inflation. Inflation measures price levels. We haven’t had “ridiculous inflation” since 2008. (In the early parts of the crisis we actually deflated.) CPI is a good measure of inflation, albeit one among many.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#143

Post by thaeli »

pbk1 wrote: post #103
mjr00 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. It's also difficult (impossible) to curb demand for housing if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term. Unfortunately, so many people in the west have their net worth tied up in their homes that policies directly targeting property values is political s…

> if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term. citation needed? genuinely curious - are there studies about long-term returns from housing vs. other asset classes (namely public equities)?

Owner-occupied is kind of a special case, too, because you've got to live somewhere. You could be paying $X to rent, or $X+Y as a mortgage plus upkeep, so the additional "investment" you're making is just $Y. In some cases rents are so high that, especially if you stay in one place a long time, you're actually paying $X-Y to own, so there's a positive return every month in addition to the equity you're accruing. Yeah, this is a horribly broken system, but it does seem to be how things work.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#144

Post by paulpauper »

thesausageking wrote: post #132
colinsane wrote: post #56

anyone know of bullet-proof analyses into central banking policy out there? after dealing with crypto projects that offer high interest rates, and do so by just inflating their token supply, fed policy seems magical to me. the fed’s offering you yield on your dollars, and that yield comes from printing new dollars (right? there’s no tax increase as part of this announcement). your share of dollars stays constant. so…

This article by Lyn Alden is the best on the dollar as the US Currency Reserve I've read: https://www.lynalden.com/fraying-petrodollar-system/

the articles promoting gold and btc in late 2020 and 2021 as a hedge aged well too, I see.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#145

Post by [deleted] »

laweijfmvo wrote: post #129
mywittyname wrote: post #47

I'm skeptical that interest rate hikes will curb inflation. I'm even skeptical that a recession will curb inflation. We have significant shortages of so many products and services that people rely on and the only way I see the situation improving is if supplies increase, maybe dramatically. It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. Those are things we just need t…

Probably just my pet peeve, but everyone conflates inflation with CPI. We've had the ridiculous inflation starting in 2008 (and doubling down in 2020), now we're seeing the CPI. Why this matters (just my theory): previously all that new money went to banks, the stock market, VC, etc., not so much directly to consumers. So we saw the stock market explode, but not so much for the price of eggs. Now we have supply chain…

[deleted]

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#146

Post by lisper »

pbk1 wrote: post #103
mjr00 wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. It's also difficult (impossible) to curb demand for housing if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term. Unfortunately, so many people in the west have their net worth tied up in their homes that policies directly targeting property values is political s…

> if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term. citation needed? genuinely curious - are there studies about long-term returns from housing vs. other asset classes (namely public equities)?

No, there aren't, because it isn't true. Residential real estate underperforms equities [1].

[1] https://jai.pm-research.com/content/23/2/111

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#147

Post by highwaylights »

mywittyname wrote: post #47

I'm skeptical that interest rate hikes will curb inflation. I'm even skeptical that a recession will curb inflation. We have significant shortages of so many products and services that people rely on and the only way I see the situation improving is if supplies increase, maybe dramatically. It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. Those are things we just need t…

> if the population is growing

It isn’t.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#148

Post by goatcode »

mjr00 wrote: post #87
mywittyname wrote: post #47

I'm skeptical that interest rate hikes will curb inflation. I'm even skeptical that a recession will curb inflation. We have significant shortages of so many products and services that people rely on and the only way I see the situation improving is if supplies increase, maybe dramatically. It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. Those are things we just need t…

> It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. It's also difficult (impossible) to curb demand for housing if housing is far and away the best investment you can possibly make, both in the short, medium, and long-term. Unfortunately, so many people in the west have their net worth tied up in their homes that policies directly targeting property values is political s…

The sad thing is that individual landlords are among the most responsive to tenant needs, while corporate landlords often are sons of Hell who should be Thanos-snapped out of existence.

Re: Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 75 basis points

#149

Post by richbell »

seibelj wrote: post #58
mywittyname wrote: post #47

I'm skeptical that interest rate hikes will curb inflation. I'm even skeptical that a recession will curb inflation. We have significant shortages of so many products and services that people rely on and the only way I see the situation improving is if supplies increase, maybe dramatically. It's too difficult to curb demand for things like food and housing if the population is growing. Those are things we just need t…

It's almost like you are encouraging supply side economics... aka... trickle down We need to massively cut corporate taxes, investment taxes, regulations, and all manner of things to increase supply. The government has been attacking business for so long we are in quite the hole.

> We need to massively cut corporate taxes, investment taxes, regulations, and all manner of things to increase supply.

Supply is low due to a global pandemic disrupting trade (and far too many companies relying on 'just-in-time' logistics).

"Massively [cutting] corporate taxes" won't do anything but bolster already soaring corporate profits. A significant amount of that money won't go back into the local economy. It also won't go to improving infrastructure, processes, employee salaries or anything that can improve resiliency or longevity; they've been penny-pinching for decades, and this is the result of it.

Furthermore, 'inflation' of many necessities like grocery, gas, and rent is obviously driven by blatant profiteering.

Post reply on HN