Live data from Hacker News

Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

science.org

171–180 of 281 posts

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#171
post #115

We don't have testable theories here, we have Mad Libs. A virus of (human)/(animal) origin was (un)intentionally (released)/(spread)/(detected) in Wuhan, starting at a (lab)/(market). Narrative 1: Animal origin with extensive spread in a food market Narrative 2: Animal origin with accidental release from lab study Narrative 3: Intentional creation/modification of a virus for purposes of scientific study and subsequen…

For theories number 3 4 and 5, increased controls and monitoring viral labs is one possible action.

I guess I didn't say all of it - yes, if it is a possibility, we should take it seriously. I think they are all possible, we should take them all seriously.

I don't think there is any way to get to a scientific certainty either positively or negatively about any of the origin theories; thus we should take precautions about all of them.

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All of the companies that created the mRNA vaccines for COVID had already a few years of life, and those few years were all spent testing their vaccines. It wasn't enough testing, and a large scale test wasn't economically viable. But they also weren't completely untested. (And guess what the world spent 6 months doing at some high death rate times? Yep, large scale testing them.)

Fair enough. Then let's go with: not properly tested and approved in alignment with tradition. The rub for many was / is the quickness of the process in contrast with the cock-sureness of the narrative (i.e., don't worry about it...just trust us...). There was also the disconnect between "trust the science" vs limited data and the shutting down of any question. Real Science is fearless.

But the process was enough to bring sureness. You seem to have a problem with the process being non-traditional, but it was the obvious adaptation to get the same sureness on the shortest possible timeframe.

The data wasn't limited in any way.

It's funny, because I have the opposite criticism. We just let people die for 6 months because we refused to act on "we are sure it's safe, we are confident it will work" and waited to have complete certainty on both of those. If we just scaled the tests further and start paying the labs before we were completely sure the vaccines work (we just really, really expected them to). We could have tested them in less than a month, and vaccinated most of the more vulnerable people in less time than that.

But if we did that, we would be open to the possibility of one of the vaccines not working. We would need a lot of transparency to deal with that, and it looks like the population can't deal with quantified certainty in any way, just with the binary version of it.

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#173
post #71
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't worry adolph we still need to pretend that this is the leading cause of death in the world and that economic recession will not responsible for 10-100x this based on historical evidence. Frankly turning this on it's head, Russia should be applauded for pushing so many people toward green, renewable and truely economically viable energy sources, I nominate putin for the nobel peace prize based on his efforts her…

> I nominate putin for the nobel peace prize based on his efforts here. You're implying intent on his part. If any single person in the world would want renewables to never exist, it would be him. I also am aghast that you would feel this way about a man destroying hundreds of thousands of lives. The man is evil.

> You're implying intent on his part.

If this was required for most discoveries we'd have to recall a serious number of nobels...

Also if he's shutting down hundreds of throusands of biological co2 and methane factories isn't that further supporting the case?

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#174
post #156

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you referring to the linked paper or something else? As far as I can tell (the writing style is not very clear IMHO), the Fig 2(B) blue cases are not second-stage cases, but rather a plot of "cases with no known link to the market". As for your second point, I don't see any discussion in the paper that this cluster "occur[s] in an area of high density housing with a preponderance of elderly people". Where are you…

Of course I'm referring to the linked paper. If you are not seeing such discussion perhaps you should read it more slowly. It's early in the Results section. The clustering of COVID-19 cases in December around the Huanan market (Fig. 1, B and C, insets) contrasts with the pattern of widely dispersed cases across Wuhan by early January through mid-February 2020 (Fig. 1, D and E), which we mapped using location data fr…

Sorry, I'm not understanding how what you're quoting there relates to Fig. 2(B). That's a reference to a separate Weibo-based data analysis that has no link at all to Fig. 2(B).

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#175
post #137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> It is perfectly reasonable that some lab somewhere would collect and study the COVID virus. What is unreasonable is that the lab or a lab worker just got sloppy and accidently released that virus out to the world. Is this still true? It is unfortunate that it took an event like this to prove what we already knew: lab workers, who are of course fallible humans, will make mistakes. Given that Covid was released upon…

> Given that Covid was released upon the world likely due to a lab accident This is entirely without evidence. > This in itself has proven to be a source of denial by the very virus experts (like Fauci) that do not want their area of science to be restricted. Even if you ignore Covid19 -- epidemiologists and virologists have been screaming for years that pandemics are hugely problematic and will become increasingly l…

And what evidence may you have that it did not come from a lab?

Ignoring the incredible risks of playing with and even creating deadly pathogens and the high likelihood of it being released into the world serves what purpose other than to protect a small group of scientists that want to create Frankenstein pathogens for experimental purposes that are likely to be either weaponized or accidentally released? Even if there are some beneficial results from such research it is likely countered by the huge risks to mankind.

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pure emotional argument without substance. You made no effort at all to criticize the methodology (which looks pretty standard to me, consistent with methods used to pinpoint the origin of other disease outbreaks besides COVID), or the raw data. Not one of the listed authors is Chinese, nor do any of them have any Chinese institutional affiliations. What is your actual argument for why I should disregard this, beyond…

The authors of this paper might well be honest and smart, but they - as we all - have to rely on raw data provided by China.

But the gp isn't making the argument that the data is suspect, and so carefully curated as to point to a misleading conclusion. Rather, it accuses the paper of reproducing a political party line.

If China is messing with the data, why do we even have data that shows the epicenter of infection moving southeast? Why not just hide or falsify it?

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#177
post #170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Given that Covid was released upon the world likely due to a lab accident This is entirely without evidence. > This in itself has proven to be a source of denial by the very virus experts (like Fauci) that do not want their area of science to be restricted. Even if you ignore Covid19 -- epidemiologists and virologists have been screaming for years that pandemics are hugely problematic and will become increasingly l…

> This is entirely without evidence. To make it clear, the Chinese government blocks any investigation by outside parties that they don't control or have influence over.

They obviously don't have control over the authors of the paper for thread you're commenting on, and for the umpteenth time, absence of evidence isn't evidence of absence. Confidently asserting that since we don't have evidence of a lab leak, it's somehow more likely is just dumb.

Virologists have pored over the genome and are highly confident it's a virus of natural origin -- that already greatly limits the role a lab could have played and doesn't require any input or approval from the Chinese government.

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#178
post #63
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you sure COVID has never been documented in animals? I seem to remember reading about cases where entire farm populations of minks were being killed. Perhaps you mean infection from an animal host to human?

Even that's wrong: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-01792-y

Indeed. I think the grandparent commenter wanted to say "no animals infected with SARS-CoV-2 have yet been found, except those infected directly or indirectly by humans".

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#179
Wuhan Biosafety Lab is only 8 miles away from this seafood market. That lab is the only lab on earth to deal with SARS related study. The link is quite obvious to me which is why China tried to interfere with the investigation so hard.

Re: Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan was early epicenter of the Covid-19 pandemic

#180
post #118

One problem in these kinds of investigations is that nobody involved really wants the truth to be known. The lab isn't going to let anyone poke around and see what it was doing until the CPP falls. And even then records have probably been wiped already. The problem is that there really isn't any evidence. SARS-COV-2 has never been detected in any Chinese land animals associated with the market. We know that birds can…

> SARS-COV-2 has never been detected in any Chinese land animals associated with the market.

They acted very quickly to sterilize the market which eliminated the evidence.

In SARS-1 the market associated with that was allowed to operate until investigators were able to take samples from the animals there and find the related virus.

As a containment measure this was probably the right reflex to have, as an investigative measure this was highly counterproductive. If, however, you are one of the people who blame China for not acting fast enough to contain the spread then you can't criticize them for this.

> There's no reservoir of the stuff found in the wild...unlike viruses like Ebola, Marburg, MERS, etc.

MERS just happened to be very easy since we sampled the camels and they were positive and sitting right there with lots of human contact. In the case of SARS-1 the actual progenitor virus was only found 10 years later in bats in Yunnan. With Ebola the species that harbors the virus has actually yet to be determined, decades later. Marburg was first discovered in 1967 and was only isolated from Egyptian fruit bats in 2009, 42 years later.

I think you're vastly underestimating how hard it is to track down animal reservoirs, and with the reservoir of Ebola still being unknown 46 years after it was discovered kind of undermines your entire point.

We also now have the BANAL viruses found in bats in Laos which are getting closer and closer to a match to SARS-CoV-2, which is actually good progress after only 2-3 years (it would actually be highly suspicious if someone found the 99% homologous bat progenitor of SARS-CoV-2 after only a few years of looking, that would suggest that China knew where it was all along -- actual science that isn't on the TV or movies is quite difficult and usually a lengthy needle-in-a-haystack process as all of these examples show).

Post reply on HN