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Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

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11–20 of 94 posts

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#11

I threw together an easily sharable document covering the current data on birthrates and it's implications.

Yeah and as I read it I saw a guy called anonymous armadillo writing a section on how falling birth rates are due to the MeToo movement. Is this all just crowd sourced random guesswork with no evidence?

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#12

I threw together an easily sharable document covering the current data on birthrates and it's implications.

Yeah and as I read it I saw a guy called anonymous armadillo writing a section on how falling birth rates are due to the MeToo movement. Is this all just crowd sourced random guesswork with no evidence?

The subject attracts armchair nazis, sadly. Collaborative editing is not a good format for those types of things.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#13
Outside of high-tech solutions (external wombs, anti-aging) there's one social: a totalitarian country forcing women to have kids. The only country I could see it happening is China.

In the absence of one of the three solutions, technological civilization will peak this century. It's not poverty or culture that leads to not having kids, it's industrialization. Any culture that automates agriculture to a sufficient level will eventually go extinct in the absence of a technological solution. Totalitarianism can work for a while but it's inherently brittle - at best it can give more time for a real technological solution.

Maybe it's the great filter.

>Even if life extension technology does begin to roll out, any model we can conjure for its use based on current economic systems will limit access to the top fraction of a percent of the population, socioeconomically speaking, and thus be irrelevant in combating the above trend.

Completely unsupported assumption. In theory antiaging could even be delivered via a virus that infects almost everyone.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#14

AKA 'people should have more kids!' 'Wait! Not in those shithole countries!' Declining birthrates alarmists are essentially sponsoring the great replacement theory. Not with words or by shilling the conspiracy online but with their alarmism as conflated to just particular geographic areas without looking at the whole globe. Global population is still growing and will continue to do so during our lifetime. The relativ…

I think it's just good to have open discussion on what these demographics changes might mean in the context of different societies. Both Europe and North America will see increasing migration from more overpopulated and poorer parts of the world, and this obviously presents its challenges to societies in the both ends of the flow.

I don't believe in "great replacement theory", what is happening is just a natural consequence of massive differences in standards of living and population growth in different parts of the world. Yet at the same time I can also see that this development isn't always without its troubles, like Sweden suffering from a wave of gun violence due to its failure to integrate many migrants who lack education and language skills, and many developing countries suffering from brain-drain. These are small-scale issues compared to the environmental impact of overpopulation, but they should still be discussed.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#15

"Demographic Apocalypse", Jeez. I for one see more dystopian scenery originating in the hell-bent overpopulation we've been witnessing on the planet for the past 100 years or so. We're looking at ~1'000 places with a population of 500'000 up to 37'000'000 these days (source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities); they comment, quite correctly IMHO: There are quite a number of popular and culturally rich cit…

Addendum Quote "The economic systems of virtually all developed countries are predicated on an assumption of constant growth"—I'm with you that shrinking societies will be facing a wholly new set of societal problems. However an economic system that is predicated on constant growth will necessarily fail at some point in the future because physics. We as a species have to find ways to prevent that from happening. To keep adding people is not an option. If we can live with 10 billion people or maybe with 20 billion people (shudder, but who knows) then at some point–100 billion? 200 billion?–there must come a point at which it is with absolute certainty not going to work.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#16

Outside of high-tech solutions (external wombs, anti-aging) there's one social: a totalitarian country forcing women to have kids. The only country I could see it happening is China. In the absence of one of the three solutions, technological civilization will peak this century. It's not poverty or culture that leads to not having kids, it's industrialization. Any culture that automates agriculture to a sufficient le…

> Any culture that automates agriculture to a sufficient level will eventually go extinct in the absence of a technological solution

Sample size: zero. Apart from that I doubt a society should reduce agricultural and horticultural occupations to zero. This is not healthy. We're already using by far too much machinery in developed countries.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#17
Birth rates for humans are self-regulating, like with any other animal population. We are nearing the point of saturation of how many people the current environment can bear. Good. If there will be some mass extinction, or new resources available, birth rates will increase accordingly. No need for intervention here.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#18

Birth rates for humans are self-regulating, like with any other animal population. We are nearing the point of saturation of how many people the current environment can bear. Good. If there will be some mass extinction, or new resources available, birth rates will increase accordingly. No need for intervention here.

Source?

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#19

"Demographic Apocalypse", Jeez. I for one see more dystopian scenery originating in the hell-bent overpopulation we've been witnessing on the planet for the past 100 years or so. We're looking at ~1'000 places with a population of 500'000 up to 37'000'000 these days (source: https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities); they comment, quite correctly IMHO: There are quite a number of popular and culturally rich cit…

I really hope our civilization can go from 7 billion people to 1 billion without a total collapse. Unfortunately we might not be ready. Will we be able to keep our technological level? Our current understanding of math, physics and nature? That requires quite a lot of people to transmit and learn. It certainly is theoretically possible but in practice? It's exponential. This has the potential to creep on us really soon.

Re: Why falling birthrates might be a bigger deal than dominants narratives imply

#20

Not sure if poster is also author, but generally when you want to share a Google docs document to be read (not edited) you should go to the "file"s menu > "share" > "publish to web" The published version isn't added to readers drive, it loads fast, is not limited by the number of concurrent readers, etc. etc.

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