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At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

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Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#51
post #9

It’s funny that the two examples used to illustrate his play (the 10 2) stories are examples of him making extremely bad reads on his opponent and bad beating them. I can only assume that’s him massaging the narrative a bit to help him win in the future, cause it isn’t great poker playing.

Not sure what makes great poker playing, but I think it's what happens on the edges of that story.

The article says he wore his opponent down little by little -- and then won a big hand. So there's that -- accruing that big lead in the first place. (Which happens in both stories)

And then at that point the logic is different -- Brunson can effectively end the game and win the tournament if he wins the next hand. Even if your odds are 50-50, since you've got more money to gamble with than your opponent, it's probably worth it to take that shot.

Also, in this story he has two pairs. The odds of your opponent having two pairs on any given hand are just 4.7539%. (And the odds of it being higher than a pair of 10s is much lower than 2%). So betting high was the right move -- despite the fact that his opponent, by an incredibly unlikely fluke, seemed to have a better hand with one card left to flip. (Which is sort of meaningless, because the fifth card counts.)

But throughout the article, it also shows Brunson following a long-standing poker principle: playing the man and not the cards. ("Brunson knew that Alto tended to get impatient after losing big.") Even getting your opponent to risk all their chips is a challenge in poker -- but Brunson knew he could make that happen. (And knew exactly how...)

I think the larger point is he won the championship two years in a row. You just don't do that without tremendous skill. But even if that doesn't convince you of poker-playing greatness: it's still a tremendous story -- that he won both championships with essentially the same crappy 10-2 hand.

"To this day, the ten-deuce is known as the 'Doyle Brunson.'"

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#53
post #39

lots of misinformation here about the current state of play with respect to GTO. If you're interested in understanding the principles of GTO and how amateurs currently leverage it check out the Finding Equilibrium youtube channel. Specifically, there's a series where this guy teaches his girlfriend to play poker by building heuristics that generally mimic solver advice. It's a cool way to see how solvers are changing…

I dont get it. Hand picking one hand of poker for an entire youtube video to prove your system is good reeks of snake oil.

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#54
post #39

lots of misinformation here about the current state of play with respect to GTO. If you're interested in understanding the principles of GTO and how amateurs currently leverage it check out the Finding Equilibrium youtube channel. Specifically, there's a series where this guy teaches his girlfriend to play poker by building heuristics that generally mimic solver advice. It's a cool way to see how solvers are changing…

this must be why i see crazy shoves with seemingly turd hands on pokerstars but bad beats on there is roughly 4~5x greater than other places due to sheer volume of players.

I don't know I never bothered learning all these things because it felt like it was taking the fun out of it so I mostly just play on feelings/intuition.

After I stopped reading theories and books I started to improve massively although I never play on Pokerstars anymore.

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#55
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think inspiring a bunch of amateurs to make plays with mostly garbage is a great example of a +EV play. Additionally with two pair heads up you need to get it in, the stuff about making reads gives amateur players the license to go nuts because they feel like it, again +EV. Dolly knew the odds better than almost anyone for a very long time, objectively we've learned a lot about poker in the last few years, and it's…

I haven't played a lot in a while, but my first thought is what you say in the second line: you're the big stack, you're heads up at the end of a tournament, you want to keep pressure on your opponent, and then once you even hit something like two-pair, seems like you want to make them have even less if they fold, or get a good shot at ending the game if they call all-in. Is this outdated in general? From the talk be…

What's outdated is the idea that you can get any advantage from the times you have two pair compared to the times your opponent does.

Situations like this are akin to an "I cut, you choose" situation. Hypothetically, you want to size your bet such that all possible responses lead to the same expected negative EV for the opponent and positive for you, with a layer of fuzziness so that your bet size doesn't always give away what you hold. That's what is meant by non-exploitable game strategy. Doyle's original advantage was knowing that bet sizing and fuzziness more precisely than anyone else, from a combination of intuition and calculation, and also in reading the opponent's propensity to inaccurately calculate and take advantage of that too. What's changed in the last few years is that now everyone and their bots know the proper calculations as Doyle always did - and they're also good at reading your bet sizing to correctly guess that you have the two pair.

Your description is still right for a single situation: with a stack advantage, yes you want to apply pressure. What's changed is the aggregation over many such situations, where your opponents have two pair just as often and play it just as well as you do.

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't played a lot in a while, but my first thought is what you say in the second line: you're the big stack, you're heads up at the end of a tournament, you want to keep pressure on your opponent, and then once you even hit something like two-pair, seems like you want to make them have even less if they fold, or get a good shot at ending the game if they call all-in. Is this outdated in general? From the talk be…

What's outdated is the idea that you can get any advantage from the times you have two pair compared to the times your opponent does. Situations like this are akin to an "I cut, you choose" situation. Hypothetically, you want to size your bet such that all possible responses lead to the same expected negative EV for the opponent and positive for you, with a layer of fuzziness so that your bet size doesn't always give…

Have you tried playing a live poker game in a casino? Beating this type of game has very little to do with playing a non exploitable strategy. Even up to 5/10 you have recs playing completely unbalanced so it’s better to just size your bets to get max value from worse hands or make better hands fold. Nobody is going to exploit you in a 2-3 hour session for doing this.

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#57
post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's a good resource for learning GTO play? I used to be a decent small to medium stakes player, studied a few 2+2 books, that kind of thing, but haven't played much in the past decade or so. Don't have any plans to get back into it seriously, but wouldn't mind getting to the point where I could sit down at a random NL100 or 200 B&M table and have an at least even expectation.

Let me start off by saying that GTO is not the panacea some folks want it to be. It helps find some new lines for sure, it is really good at short stack problems, it helps a lot with starting hand ranges, and it is quite good for hu play. All that said, most gto output assumes that your opponent is also playing gto. This is usually not the case, especially live. You can node lock in solvers to address this, but that’…

Awesome answer, thank you. I'll check out some of those resources out of interest if nothing else!

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#58
post #39

lots of misinformation here about the current state of play with respect to GTO. If you're interested in understanding the principles of GTO and how amateurs currently leverage it check out the Finding Equilibrium youtube channel. Specifically, there's a series where this guy teaches his girlfriend to play poker by building heuristics that generally mimic solver advice. It's a cool way to see how solvers are changing…

> there's a series where this guy teaches his girlfriend to play poker by building heuristics that generally mimic solver advice

Finding Equilibrium – The Ariel Chronicles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pxt-S0nBwOQ&list=PLV0Rs5uYPf...

Re: At 88, Poker Legend Doyle Brunson Is Still Bluffing. Or Is He?

#59
post #4
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book “no limit theory and practice” continues to be the most valuable poker book I’ve read. That said about 80% of that book and 95% of anything written about poker before about 2019 is irrelevant to today’s games. People never intended to play game theory optimal in the past; it was a war of “leveling” your opponent into making the wrong move. You would make money by playing an “exploitive strategy” meaning, you…

Fascinating. I haven’t played or thought about poker in 15 years. Can you elaborate more on the current strategy of poker? A real example would be helpful.

I can only tell you my perspective as an ex poker pro who has not studied with solvers.

But the basic idea is that you put in a range of starting hands for yourself and the opponent, and possible bet sizes, and the solver will brute force a play that approximates Nash equilibrium.

The output of the solver will be something like “45% of the time bet. 55% check.” Or “95% fold. 5% raise X”

The general loop as I understand it is inputting tricky/common situations running the solver and basically memorizing it.

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