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Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

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Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#241

Post by hattmall »

bonzini wrote: post #62
cjdell wrote: post #13

I'm not sure why we aren't making EVs with small but upgradeable batteries. Like for example a $20k car with a 10kWh "good enough for now" starter battery that can be bought today. Still good enough for 90% of trips and upgradable to 50kWh with additional after market battery modules should the user decide. As simple as upgrading the RAM on an (old) laptop.

10 kWh is less than 40 miles / 60 km. It's good enough for grocery shopping but it would be akin to always running with your fuel light on and with 1/20th of the fueling stations (ok you would charge at nighttime). I wouldn't be comfortable with that unless I am going to pay for it half of an equivalent ICE car.

That's like 80lbs of LFP batteries, I really don't see why there isn't some easy way to add this to existing ICE cars.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#242

Post by Animats »

bell-cot wrote: post #67

> Automotive giant Ford is shoring up its battery supply chain — partly by importing lower-cost, iron-based batteries popular in China — as it sprints to increase electric vehicle production. Old geezer's perspective: Back in its heyday, Ford Motor was one of the most vertically integrated (large manufacturing) companies in the world. They owned and operated their own fleet of ore carriers (cargo ships), to haul iron…

Ford is building other battery plants. Huge plant going up in Tennessee, "Blue Oval City", for lithium-ion batteries.[1] The battery technology comes from S. Korea. The lithium will come from Ioneer in Nevada.[2] Another plant is going up in Kentucky. Plus there's existing electric production at the Rouge plant in Detroit. Ford is serious about electric trucks.

Tesla's Cybertruck initial delivery was just delayed another year.[3]

[1] https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/money/business/2022/0...

[2] https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-b...

[3] https://observer.com/2022/07/tesla-cybertruck-production-del...

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#243

Post by electrondood »

nr2x wrote: post #232
dylan604 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well. When you're not the trailblazer, it's easy to make catch-up progress to those that went before you in much much less time. Why this is constantly a source of amazement is funny to me. By the time Ford got involved, the path was no longer a beaten down path, it was fully paved 8-lane highway. Instead trying to figure out how to ma…

I think you’re precisely identifying why Tesla is well and truly fucked. The big automakers know how to make cars at scale and once they decide to it’s easy. They may be slow giants, but Tesla lost the advantage of being small and quick. German, Japanese, and American manufacturers were the biggest national security components of WWII. Tesla is a second tier interest of a CEO who prefers to be an online troll than ke…

> Tesla is well and truly fucked

Sorry, this is just absurd. Tesla is the only company designing for massive scale and ruthless simplification from the start. Their entire DNA is based on YAGNI.

Every other legacy automaker is pinned between their dealerships, their dependence on consumer debt, their own massive debt, and the fact that they'll need to cannibalize existing business to pivot to EVs.

No other company owns their own destiny by being more in control of their supply chain than Tesla.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#244

Post by electrondood »

RustyConsul wrote: post #203
enragedcacti wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ford believes they have the battery supply for a 600,000 EV/year run rate by late-2023 and are shooting for 2,000,000/year by 2026. Bloomberg projects VW selling more EVs than Tesla by 2024 and they are planning to have 240GWh/yr of in-house battery production by 2030. BYD in China is fully vertically integrated on EV production, moreso than Tesla who relies on 3rd party mining and on Panasonic for chemistries/cell p…

so what you're saying is they are not only copying the good parts of Tesla (Electrification) but also the bad parts (lying about future production?). Ford made 30k electric vehicles in 2021, 600k means a growth rate of %1900 in the span of 2 1/2 years (They need to be at the run rate in 2026)? Battery packs were a problem to Tesla in 2018 and now they've moved onto the bigger problem that no one is talking about....…

Tesla hasn't ever lied about future production, not once.

If you actually look at their guidance, it's "50% growth on average," and they've consistently hit it.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#245

Post by electrondood »

dylan604 wrote: post #132
solarkraft wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Current-day Ford Motor having to go begging to China - for a major, iron-based component needed to produce more cars - that is laughable, and beyond pathetic. They're lucky China is answering. They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well.

>They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well. When you're not the trailblazer, it's easy to make catch-up progress to those that went before you in much much less time. Why this is constantly a source of amazement is funny to me. By the time Ford got involved, the path was no longer a beaten down path, it was fully paved 8-lane highway. Instead trying to figure out how to ma…

> While Tesla is "working" on self-driving and not doing well with it

Maybe you missed the footage of FSD perfectly navigating San Francisco during rush hour [1]. I'd say they're doing pretty damn well.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yh8AV3OMWYs

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#246

Post by carapace »

To me it seems that batteries in EVs make less sense than e.g. alcohol fuel ICE or hybrids.

The main consideration is energy density, but alcohol is easy to make and handle, carbon-neutral, and the exhaust is non-toxic.

This wouldn't make sense for the whole of car traffic because we use way too much fossil fuel to replace it all with e.g. industrial ethanol. But it could work as part of a transitional strategy. Fuel co-op as part of a CSA farm.

It's pretty straightforward to convert existing ICE cars to burn alcohol instead. You don't even have to wait for anybody else, or any new technology to be developed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_alcohol_fuel

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#247

Post by danans »

NickNameNick wrote: post #48
alexisread wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

...say like a battery trailer with a CCS socket, and with extra storage as well, for long journeys? Low tech FTW. Smartrail is still a better soln but we have to be realistic here.

Will any electric car let you drive while it's plugged in? I'm pretty sure Tesla's Rivians get locked into park when the charger is connected.

No, even my PHEV doesn't let you drive while plugged in.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#248

Post by missedthecue »

deepdriver wrote: post #3
witheld wrote: post #2

I don’t think heavier batteries with less battery life are gonna do much for Americans. Not unless we can get into small vehicles real quick- and given that the chicken tax has been imposed by executive order since 1964 I don’t see that happening.

For others who didn't know: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_tax

"To circumvent the tariffs, imported Ford vehicles replace rear windows with metal panels and remove the rear seats and seat belts. The removed parts are shredded and recycled in Ohio."

What an unbelievable waste. Why hasn't this cold-war relic been long abolished?

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#249

Post by kortex »

hattmall wrote: post #218
cogman10 wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why BEVs are better than fuel-cell hydrogen cars for basically everything, except maybe long distance air transport. The place where BEVs have yet to prove themselves is when energy density is absolutely critical. Long distance transport of any sort (air, sea, train, semi) is really the next places for them. Semi is a maybe at this point. Train MIGHT make sense, but, IMO it'll probably make the most sense as an ene…

Why not electrify the road, at least highways, in part.

How? Rail at least provides a direct conductive path. Electrified highways would require inductive charging at 65mph (not feasible) or building overhead pantograph systems (expensive but at least vaguely tractable). Either requires specialized vehicles.

Europe could pull it off due to its density, but the stretches of American highway which would benefit the most from it, would be a huge challenge.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#250

Post by throwaway_4ever »

sitkack wrote: post #238
dragonwriter wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IIRC, Ford explicitly said that if it hadn't been for the effect of the bailouts of an other manufacturers on shared supply chains, it would have needed a bailout.

Could you explain this with a couple sentences, I don't understand.

Say GM and Chrysler weren't bailed out. Then they wouldn't be able to support the trade between other third party car parts manufacturers that rely on them. Those companies would lose economies of scale and/or go out of business too. Then wouldn't Ford be able to make their cars without those third parties and would need bailing out to not go bankrupt also.
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