Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

axios.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

231–240 of 328 posts

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#231

Post by dangrossman »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #175
snotrockets wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla was never serious about replaceable batteries. They could get more tradeable credits for replaceable batteries, so they told everyone they’ll do that, got the credits for the cars that were supposed to have replaceable batteries, and never followed up with the actual tech.

That's FUD as far as I'm concerned. If they were just aiming for regulatory credits it weighs have been far cheaper to use human labor to do the swaps than to develop the robotic apparatus they developed. Tesla did a decent market test on batteries, the test failed and they moved on.

The "market test" was a shack across the street from a 100% free Tesla Supercharger station. To use said shack, you had to be one of a select group invited, make an appointment days in advance, pay a fee, and risk that you're trading your $20K battery for a worse one out of someone else's car. They invited a couple owners and journalists to do a few swaps for the magazines, collected their extra ZEV credits, and then disconnected the phone and let the one person staffing the place go back to his normal job. If that looks like an honest market test to you, then I don't know what else to say.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#232

Post by nr2x »

dylan604 wrote: post #132
solarkraft wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Current-day Ford Motor having to go begging to China - for a major, iron-based component needed to produce more cars - that is laughable, and beyond pathetic. They're lucky China is answering. They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well.

>They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well. When you're not the trailblazer, it's easy to make catch-up progress to those that went before you in much much less time. Why this is constantly a source of amazement is funny to me. By the time Ford got involved, the path was no longer a beaten down path, it was fully paved 8-lane highway. Instead trying to figure out how to ma…

I think you’re precisely identifying why Tesla is well and truly fucked. The big automakers know how to make cars at scale and once they decide to it’s easy. They may be slow giants, but Tesla lost the advantage of being small and quick.

German, Japanese, and American manufacturers were the biggest national security components of WWII. Tesla is a second tier interest of a CEO who prefers to be an online troll than keeping up with the auto industry.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#233

Post by manmal »

SigmundA wrote: post #136
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #4

This is huge. To date, Tesla has been the only non-Chinese manufacturer talking iron. LFP is often touted for being cheaper than NMC, but given growing insecurity around battery-grade nickel supplies, using the far-more-prevalent iron and phosphate isn’t just about cheaper cars. It’s about having cars to sell in the first place. With respect to range anxiety, pretty much every EV in the 200 to 300-mile range is sold…

LFP Also has much more cycle life and can be cycled 0-100% with much less degradation than NMC meaning a much longer lasting battery. The LFP Tesla it is recommended to charge to 100% always rather than only doing 80% except on long trips on the NMC Teslas. LFP is also safer with much less chance for thermal runaway. So safer, cheaper, longer lasting, easier material sourcing, only downside is lower energy density (a…

There’s also a downside to LFP batteries: They charge significantly slower. There was a report in Germany about Teslas with LFP packs only achieving 73kW on average. For some trips this means 50% longer charging times.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#234

Post by notatoad »

enragedcacti wrote: post #215
notatoad wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Ford made 30k electric vehicles in 2021 source? all i could find was this https://insideevs.com/news/596347/us-ford-ev-sales-june-2022 > H1 production of nearly 34,000 units is below the level from 2021 in the same period. which is just talking about mach-e production, not other EVs.

I think Mach-e is the only BEV Ford sold in 2021. The E-transit and F-150 Lightning both started sales in 2022. They were selling anumber of PHEVs but many people don't count those as "EV" production.

presumably they built some in H2 as well though. the 34k number is only the first half of the year.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#235

Post by quesera »

mtrimpe wrote: post #111
cjdell wrote: post #13

I'm not sure why we aren't making EVs with small but upgradeable batteries. Like for example a $20k car with a 10kWh "good enough for now" starter battery that can be bought today. Still good enough for 90% of trips and upgradable to 50kWh with additional after market battery modules should the user decide. As simple as upgrading the RAM on an (old) laptop.

I think we should start thinking in battery cargo trailers. When do you want extra range and battery? When you're going on holiday. What do you want apart from extra range when you're going on holiday? Extra storage space! So why not just start selling battery cargo trailers which can provide your main car with extended range when needed? It's also much easier to swap and rent out physically, financially and emotiona…

Most drivers can't handle trailers. The roads would be so much more dangerous if trailers were commonplace.

Trailer hookups can be legitimately difficult. Even in the simplest case, they can be time-consuming.

Humans are notoriously bad at backing up with a trailer attached.

Heavy trailers (batteries) are extra dangerous -- tail-wagging can be scary!

Cars with trailers don't fit in parking spaces.

...

A replaceable battery has to be in the underpan of a car. Or split across several battery modules, but keeping the center of gravity low, and between the axles.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#236

Post by NickRandom »

RustyConsul wrote: post #200
NickRandom wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And of course as a further example of their supply chain integration no conversation on it would be complete without mention of Fordlandia [1][2] [1] Lost cities #10: Fordlandia – the failure of Henry Ford's utopian city in the Amazon https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/aug/19/lost-cities-1... [2] Wikipedia Entry: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fordlandia

>the failure of Henry Ford's utopian city in the Amazon That title is extremely loaded. Ford rubber mining operations in the amazon fail when synthetic rubber is invented is the true story.

Hence the [1] and [2] provison of sources. It is an interesting historical factoid. Nothing more. Nothing Less.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#237

Post by partiallypro »

criley2 wrote: post #155
phtrivier wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China spent the last two years demonstrating that they're "fair weather partners" when it comes to trade. And winter is coming. So obviously it's not bad _per se_ to rely on China ; but if it's not possible to diversify sourcing, this is begging for a disaster next time whatever geopolitic hits the fan.

How did they spend two years demonstrating they are fair weather partners? Was it the part where they locked workers inside of factories producing goods for America to make sure that the Americans got their shipments in spite of the Covid-0 policy? Or was it how China is actually upholding most sanctions against Russia, despite giving less than 0 f's about Ukraine? IMO the real disaster would be a total de-link betwe…

> Was it the part where they locked workers inside of factories producing goods for America to make sure that the Americans got their shipments in spite of the Covid-0 policy?

They did this because it would cause their economy to collapse and there are social repercussions against the CCP if that were to happen. Had 0 to do with the US or the West or any sort of altruism. They also welded doors of apartments shut so people inside couldn't leave during the initial lock downs. China has a much more robust class system than the US and the lower class/rural people are taken advantage of at an astounding rate because they aren't the right kind of Chinese.

> Or was it how China is actually upholding most sanctions against Russia, despite giving less than 0 f's about Ukraine?

China is essentially the sole reason Russia is still occupying Ukraine and they have been skirting sanctions left and right; even going as far as partnering with Russia on a new inter-banking system. They've also used the Ukrainin War as a way to test the waters in the South China Sea and step up their territorial claims over international waters in violation of international law.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#238

Post by sitkack »

dragonwriter wrote: post #209
dghughes wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And if I recall correctly Ford was the only US vehicle manufacturer that did not request a bailout in 2008. That was impressive at the time and it made Ford look like solid well-run company that planned ahead.

IIRC, Ford explicitly said that if it hadn't been for the effect of the bailouts of an other manufacturers on shared supply chains, it would have needed a bailout.

Could you explain this with a couple sentences, I don't understand.

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#239

Post by turtlebits »

iasay wrote: post #39
adrianN wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Laptop batteries and EV batteries have a completely different performance profile. The data we have suggests that the battery will retain 80% of its maximum capacity for about as long as the rest of the car is expected to survive.

You miss the point. Most people don’t buy new cars. Most people buy second hand vehicles. They now risk degraded batteries and a huge incidental cost. My car cost me £5000 second hand. The cheapest EV battery replacement here is £12,500. I could write that car off twice for the price of a battery and still have enough money to go on holiday. When you buy the bottom end of the second hand EV market which is realistica…

EVs aren't for everyone, especially if you have long range requirements. My daily work commute is under 6 miles round trip.

That said, 20% degradation after 10 years isn't a huge deal for me. I'm sure in that time, battery replace/refurbishment will be much cheaper. There is a company in Oregan that will replace a 40kwh Leaf pack for $7000 .

Re: Ford's answer to EV supply chain hell: Cheaper batteries

#240

Post by sitkack »

nr2x wrote: post #232
dylan604 wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>They're incredibly late to the EV game; considering that they're doing remarkably well. When you're not the trailblazer, it's easy to make catch-up progress to those that went before you in much much less time. Why this is constantly a source of amazement is funny to me. By the time Ford got involved, the path was no longer a beaten down path, it was fully paved 8-lane highway. Instead trying to figure out how to ma…

I think you’re precisely identifying why Tesla is well and truly fucked. The big automakers know how to make cars at scale and once they decide to it’s easy. They may be slow giants, but Tesla lost the advantage of being small and quick. German, Japanese, and American manufacturers were the biggest national security components of WWII. Tesla is a second tier interest of a CEO who prefers to be an online troll than ke…

Tesla assembly lines appear to be very well designed. I wonder what else they could make.
Post reply on HN