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The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

newyorker.com

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Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#181

Post by machineleaning »

throwaway6734 wrote: post #160
neural_thing wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oil leases have been canceled by the Federal government since the Ukrainian invasion https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/12/politics/interior-gas-leases-...

>Due to lack of industry interest in leasing in the area, the Department will not move forward with the proposed Cook Inlet [Outer Continental Shelf] oil and gas lease sale 258," Schwartz said. You're pushing a bad faith argument

And you are taking what politicians say on faith. Here's a view from the other side: Critics, including U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), were quick to blast the decision.

“Citing a ‘lack of industry interest’ is nothing more than fantasy from an administration that shuns U.S. energy production,” she said in a statement to CBS News. “Cook Inlet is the sole source of the natural gas that more than 400,000 people in Southcentral Alaska — and significant military bases that are critical to our national security — depend on. I can say with full certainty, based on conversations as recently as last night, that Alaska’s industry does have interest in lease sales in Cook Inlet. To claim otherwise is simply false, not to mention stunningly short-sighted.”

https://www.gobankingrates.com/money/business/why-did-biden-...

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#182

Post by andsoitis »

jason-phillips wrote: post #83

For context, I live in San Saba and Lampasas, TX. San Saba is located two hours northwest of Austin where the population density is three people per square mile. While there is truth to the story about inflation hitting rural, poorer areas the hardest, this gentleman's quotes are a but of a stretch. > Brisket went from one sixty-nine a pound to seven Brisket has not been $1.69 for years, unless this gentleman has som…

> > “In Texas, in all two hundred and fifty-four counties, you can go get barbecue—that’s what we could lose,” she said.

>It seems that this person is saying we could lose BBQ in all 254 counties in Texas? That's unmitigated hyperbole and balderdash.

No, he's saying that today you can go to any of the 254 counties in Texas and get BBQ, but in the future you may only be to do so in some.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#183

Post by throwaway9870 »

hgomersall wrote: post #138
konschubert wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Inflation is when the ratio of / grows. This can happen by the numerator growing (your (a)) or the denominator shrinking (your (b)).

A moment's consideration would show that's too simplistic. Money available has been growing for years without any notable inflation. It's not like we all rush out to spend every bit of income we have, a fair amount gets saved which effectively neutralises it.

So has the goods available. I suspect China's ability to manufacture cheaply and in huge quantities has masked a lot of the increase in the numerator.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#185

Post by LBJsPNS »

oldjavacoder wrote: post #91
tootie wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While a particular dry season isn't indicative of climate change, Texas is very much experiencing a decades-long drying that is definitely attributable to climate change. That water park may not be viable much longer. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/megadrought-texas-american-...

Lived here for over 1.5 decades and do not see a "decades-long drying". Texas isn't perfect but water management is something it does right. https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/the-last-drop/ "Among the fifty states, Texas may rank near the bottom in many categories—including environmental protection (forty-fifth), quality of parks and recreation (forty-ninth), and availability of mental health care (forty-sixth)—b…

Lived in San Antonio for 2 years in the middle of yet another drouth (welcome to the Southland). Mine was the only lawn in the neighborhood that was brown. Neighbors were pissed. Texas may know exactly how much water they have, but the residents don't seem to understand how important that water is. Part of the reason I moved elsewhere.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#186

Post by LBJsPNS »

ev1 wrote: post #93
thebooktocome wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I probably give off that vibe. But nah, I’m just a jaded, cynical survivor of the Rust Belt imploding twenty years ago, causing similar destruction to our mom n’ pops. From which we also never really recovered. Anyway, more importantly, what weird mushroom water? Is it any good?

kombucha and it is very much an acquired taste IMO

Mildew. It tastes like mildew.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#187

Post by tootie »

oldjavacoder wrote: post #91
tootie wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While a particular dry season isn't indicative of climate change, Texas is very much experiencing a decades-long drying that is definitely attributable to climate change. That water park may not be viable much longer. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/megadrought-texas-american-...

Lived here for over 1.5 decades and do not see a "decades-long drying". Texas isn't perfect but water management is something it does right. https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/the-last-drop/ "Among the fifty states, Texas may rank near the bottom in many categories—including environmental protection (forty-fifth), quality of parks and recreation (forty-ninth), and availability of mental health care (forty-sixth)—b…

"it's how the Earth works."

You missed the part where it's definitely cause by human activity. Especially Texas since it's an oil state and it's government is anti-climate.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#188

Post by Enginerrrd »

tyingq wrote: post #161
imtringued wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People don't seem to grasp that 9% inflation is extremely high across an economy as large as the US. The 70s had 15% inflation, everyone with their rage boner demanding 50% inflation in the CPI wants ridiculous reports of hyperinflation.

Well, and 9% YoY, where the previous year was also up ~7% from its own previous year. The magic of compound interest and all.

Yes! And a lot of people forget that, but I calculated it and the average spending increases I've been seeing in my household are up more like 15% YOY over the last 2 years. And that coincides with a significant reduction in consumption on our part as well as substitution for cheaper goods over that same period.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#189

Post by lend000 »

californical wrote: post #120
lend000 wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

CPI has been engineered to meet targets for a long time. Several major flaws with CPI: Hedonic adjustments are more or less at the mercy of the bureaucrats. For example, new vehicles did not go up in hedonic-adjusted price from 1997 to 2020 according to the BLS [0]. The justification is that new cars have bluetooth and other features that counter-act the price change. An automatic Toyota Corolla was $12373 brand new…

> the survey evaluates the median spending of a sample of Americans, but the median American spends pretty much all of their money. I feel like this is relevant. If you already don’t save anything, then your spending power decreases drastically over a year or two, you still spend all of your money but just buy fewer of the nonessential or “nicer” things. So CPI adjusts and assumes that “this is normal spending now”,…

That was my interpretation when I first read the detailed process about the BLS survey.

It will still measure inflation, but if the median American's spending preferences changes when prices change (which is true until the median American can never afford anything except the bare necessities to begin with), then those changing preferences will result in falsely lower inflation numbers. Combined with Hedonic adjustments, true inflation has probably been about 50% higher than reported for the last two decades (and more in line with the Big Mac index) [0].

[0] https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/what-do-big-mac-prices...

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#190

Post by thfuran »

spaetzleesser wrote: post #157
RC_ITR wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> But it's irrelevant when that's the cheapest new vehicle, most working Americans need a car, and despite better fuel efficiency, it isn't really that much cheaper to own a car. Hedonic adjustments make sense in theory, bpractice it's a loophole to make inflation whatever the government wants it to be. The average new car in the US lasts like 2x longer than it did in 1998. Shouldn’t that factor in?

“The average new car in the US lasts like 2x longer than it did in 1998. Shouldn’t that factor in?” Absolutely not. Where do you stop with this game? Do you factor in that the seats are better so people go less to the doctor for back pain?

Yes, that sounds like a good idea if what you're trying to estimate is the cost of maintaining a certain quality of life.
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