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The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

newyorker.com

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Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#161

Post by tyingq »

imtringued wrote: post #119
tyingq wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CPI is well thought out, though it's possible that their choices on weighting don't match your own spend. Some detail here: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/relative-importance/2021.htm

People don't seem to grasp that 9% inflation is extremely high across an economy as large as the US. The 70s had 15% inflation, everyone with their rage boner demanding 50% inflation in the CPI wants ridiculous reports of hyperinflation.

Well, and 9% YoY, where the previous year was also up ~7% from its own previous year. The magic of compound interest and all.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#162

Post by spywaregorilla »

jason-phillips wrote: post #83

For context, I live in San Saba and Lampasas, TX. San Saba is located two hours northwest of Austin where the population density is three people per square mile. While there is truth to the story about inflation hitting rural, poorer areas the hardest, this gentleman's quotes are a but of a stretch. > Brisket went from one sixty-nine a pound to seven Brisket has not been $1.69 for years, unless this gentleman has som…

> Absolutely, inflation hurts. For example, I know that small town governments who provide the critical infrastructure for their communities drive the equivalent of an F150 and the increase in gas prices strains city budgets, which may only be $1M per annum. Will they get by? Absolutely, because self-reliance is baked into their existence, the community rallies and supports its own, or they couldn't continue to live and survive in such remote environs.

A ridiculous tautology. They will continue to exist because if they couldn't they wouldn't? Self reliance is baked into their existence? Please.

Let's do a check: https://reportingtexas.com/amid-population-decline-rural-tex...

> Despite Texas gaining more people than any other state in the past decade, more than half of its counties lost population, according to the 2020 U.S. Census.

> During the past few decades, changes in agriculture and the boom-or-bust oil and gas industry have led to dwindling employment opportunities in rural Texas. Many young people leave rural communities after high school in search of economic and social opportunity, often never returning.

These towns are hurting badly. They're not going to survive by gritting their teeth.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#163

Post by spywaregorilla »

bee_rider wrote: post #39
imgabe wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's misleading to talk about profits purely in absolute terms. The profit margin could stay the same while the absolute number doubles. If you make $10 profit on $100 revenue one year (a 10% margin) and $20 profit on $200 revenue the next year (still a 10% margin), profits "doubled" but the profit margin stayed the same. When you add in the inflation and the fact that the $20 this year is not worth as much as $20 wa…

Your hypothetical is of course possible and good to keep in mind, but in this case: https://www.meatpoultry.com/articles/26162-tyson-foods-repor... Compared to 2021: It looks like they increased the price of beef by 31.7%, sales decreased by 6.2%. For chicken, they increased the price by 19.9%, and sales increased 3.6%. It is possible I'm misreading things though, I'm definitely no economist. > Adjusted net income fo…

The missing piece here is how much did costs increase? Are the costs maybe slower to catch up due to locked in prices and they raised to consumers earlier? We'll see. I wouldn't expect these record profits to hold.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#164

Post by BowBun »

jason-phillips wrote: post #83

For context, I live in San Saba and Lampasas, TX. San Saba is located two hours northwest of Austin where the population density is three people per square mile. While there is truth to the story about inflation hitting rural, poorer areas the hardest, this gentleman's quotes are a but of a stretch. > Brisket went from one sixty-nine a pound to seven Brisket has not been $1.69 for years, unless this gentleman has som…

Statements with the word 'never' should immediately be dismissed, especially when you're being as pedantic as you are in your above argument.

If I dissect your points with the same gusto as you dissect the article's:

> It seems that this person is saying we could lose BBQ in all 254 counties in Texas?

Not what they're saying, they're saying some could be lost which would mean BBQ would not be available in every county.

> Brisket has not been $1.69 for years, unless this gentleman has some sort of sweetheart deal.

Comparing wholesale prices to HEB makes no sense. I also can't get 150 eggs for that price.

> Texas BBQ will never go away.

The hubris in this statement is unbelievable! Why do you think BBQ of all things is immune from societal changes? Countless foods and other cultural activities have been lost over generations due to even more reasons. I find it funny how your wording makes BBQ sound like the last bastion of civilization that should be defended!

I get the skepticism, but the response is a bit over the top for what's being talked about. It's just BBQ, they're having a rough time, we might lose some businesses.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#165

Post by spywaregorilla »

quickthrower2 wrote: post #89
InefficientRed wrote: post #6

> a box of a hundred and eighty eggs, which had cost around eight dollars when he opened the restaurant, in 2001, was nearly fifty. I don't think I've seen wholesale eggs even close to that high at any point. I think the only place I've seen unit prices that high is at a Whole Foods (which is organic, not wholesale, and has a "premium brand"/convenience markup). Are eggs just outrageously expensive in the Texas marke…

Australia. I pay $5.50 (US$3.80) for a dozen large free range. So about $60 for 180. But free range! Retail!

About the same price over in Massachusetts. Note that in the US if you want what's considered free range in most of the world you need to buy "pasture raised". "free range" is an awkward middle step.

Normal eggs are about half price, and MA has some regulations in place the limit the abuse of chickens more than other states.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#166

Post by sokoloff »

thebooktocome wrote: post #16
sokoloff wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be fairly surprised if we don't see gas under $3/gal sometime in the next decade. There's a reason several key economic indicators exclude food and energy (due to the much higher volatility of these categories).

Let’s see, they opened in 2001. So their original business model assumed gas would be around 1.40/gal (1.90 inflation adjusted). When do you think gas will fall that low again?

You can’t reasonably predict a specific future price-at-time of a volatile commodity (that’s the whole point of excluding its transient excursions).

Dev 2008, Feb 2016, spring 2020 were all times with retracements back near the 2001 levels (adjusted for currency devaluation/inflation).

I expect we’ll see them again in my lifetime, but you can’t reliably predict exactly when. (If you could, you could retire quite quickly via commodity speculation.)

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#167

Post by buescher »

My barber just raised his price 25% for the first time in the 11 years I've been going to him. There's some sticktion to prices that's breaking free with the inflation we're seeing.

I like to look at the USDA retail price surveys for meat: https://www.ams.usda.gov/market-news/retail

Chicken prices are all over the map right now - wings are down from last year, as are bagged leg quarters. Boneless chicken breasts have almost doubled in price.

Dude's paying over retail for AA eggs.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#168

Post by spywaregorilla »

gumby wrote: post #5
thebooktocome wrote: post #3

That’s rough, but when a business is no longer economically viable it’s probably time to close up shop.

What if the economic change is transient? There are only two regular restaurants in town. The impact is larger than just the owner.

So you're just locked into a slowly decaying town by social norms and guilt? Sounds like the well intentioned by arguably antagonistic group of adults in a coming of age young adult movie. The decline of rural towns has been a long term thing.

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#169

Post by spywaregorilla »

wins32767 wrote: post #18
tylermac1 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is just a reality of the economic policy we’ve chosen to pursue here. Now who is "we" in this scenario?

American citizens collectively.

But also the general development of the world

Re: The true costs of inflation in small-town Texas

#170

Post by mrits »

tootie wrote: post #76
mrits wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you under the impression that droughts didn't happen in Texas until the 21st century? Can we stop calling all extreme weather climate change? It just gives talking points to the critics.

While a particular dry season isn't indicative of climate change, Texas is very much experiencing a decades-long drying that is definitely attributable to climate change. That water park may not be viable much longer. https://www.cbsnews.com/dfw/news/megadrought-texas-american-...

"While a particular dry season isn't indicative of climate"

You could have stopped there.

The highlight of the article is that droughts happened around the state even thousands of years ago.

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