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ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#161

Post by avereveard »

foobarian wrote: post #84
cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

Well, the main selling point when it came out was that it was the iPhone of thermostats. It was the only thermostat at the time that did not have a terrible UI cobbled together by communist residential block designers or people who think that setting your own IRQ pins with jumpers is fun. But yeah I never understood the point of the learning feature; maybe a checkbox that needed to be ticked or a founder's pet featur…

It's mostly to trick people in thinking they don't need as many sensors for a smart home, once the nest is bought the sunk cost fallacy kicks in.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#162

Post by zinekeller »

2c2c2c wrote: post #160
throw__away7391 wrote: post #157

Somehow I have the opposite experience of everyone else on this site? I frequently get targeted ads for exactly the item I'm interested in, e.g. a pair a shoes that actually look very similar to a pair I was considering but from a different brand. My YouTube recommendations bring me a ton of new videos on topics I'm interested in. I do a tiny amount of curation, but overall rarely get objectively bad videos recommend…

My guess is targeted advertising works great up until the point you share your devices with other people. parents and their kids sharing accounts, laptops, tablets leads to a bunch of junk input and this makes up the majority of population

Personal anecdote but my personal experience is that targeted advertising seems to be predicting my past me. I can't describe it exactly, but it seems to never realise that I'm done with (something), especially with once-in-a-moon purchases (like laptops).

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#164

Post by itissid »

Slackwise wrote: post #10
cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

> Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why.

Away from home should be an easy problem to solve assuming Nest can talk to your phone(which is almost 100% true in real life). IN my experience there are several easy heuristics that can achieve ~ 90% precision and recall in home detection, like are you connected to a wifi or even combining it with some IMU data to be more confident.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#165

Post by mgraczyk »

mushufasa wrote: post #43
mgraczyk wrote: post #42

Always interesting to see outsiders writing papers about this, using anecdote and unrelated data (mostly political and real world purchase data in this case) to argue that ML doesn't make useful predictions. Meanwhile I look at randomized controlled trial data showing millions of dollars in revenue uplift directly attributable to ML vs non-ML backed conversion pipelines, offsetting the cost of doing the ML by >10x. I…

I think you may be conflating the topics and goals of adjacent exercises; predicting consumer behavior is not the same thing as optimizing a conversion pipeline.

The examples they give in section two are directly relevant to optimizing conversion pipelines. They pretty clearly intend to be describing something relevant the e-commerce user experience.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#166

Post by rusticpenn »

Melatonic wrote: post #97
malkia wrote: post #75

Some years ago, I worked on a team "Ads Human Eval" - we had raters hired to do A/B testing for ads. These evaluated questionaires carefuly crafted by our linguists, and then analyzed by the statisticians providing feedback to the (internal) group that wanted to know more about. So the best experience was this internal event that we had, where the raters would say that certain Ad would not fare well (long term), whil…

I dont think most people are arguing that machines will replace everyone anytime soon - it is that they will replace a huge portion of people. If one person can do the job of 10,000 by being the tweaker / approver of an advanced AI that is still 9,999 jobs eliminated. That might be hyperbole (you still probably will need people to support that system)

and new jobs and industries will be created.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#167

Post by potatochup »

vasco wrote: post #142
malkia wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree, but it's true that some jobs should not simply exists. To this day, if I go to our airport in Sofia (Bulgaria), and my baggage is over the limit of 20 or was it 25kg I have to go to another place, pay for it and come back (why? bureaucracy - not only I have to do it, but I'm slowing anyone waiting for me to this - it's like 25-50 meters one place to the other) Unlike Frakfurt, Munich or Heathrow airport wher…

Meanwhile if you fatten up by 20kgs you fly for the same price. Just eat your clothes!

The difference being, some poor sod doesn't have to carry you to the cargo hold of the plane.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#168

Post by threeseed »

Melatonic wrote: post #97
malkia wrote: post #75

Some years ago, I worked on a team "Ads Human Eval" - we had raters hired to do A/B testing for ads. These evaluated questionaires carefuly crafted by our linguists, and then analyzed by the statisticians providing feedback to the (internal) group that wanted to know more about. So the best experience was this internal event that we had, where the raters would say that certain Ad would not fare well (long term), whil…

I dont think most people are arguing that machines will replace everyone anytime soon - it is that they will replace a huge portion of people. If one person can do the job of 10,000 by being the tweaker / approver of an advanced AI that is still 9,999 jobs eliminated. That might be hyperbole (you still probably will need people to support that system)

> it is that they will replace a huge portion of people

And not just any people. Lower to middle class, blue collar people.

The type who are the least able to travel for work, most likely to have families, least able to transition between careers etc. And crucially in many countries the people who often decide elections.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#169

Post by thaumasiotes »

jsjohnst wrote: post #122
thaumasiotes wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We know that's not the reason; Amazon is infamous for advertising washing machines to people who have just bought a washing machine from Amazon.

Amazon can’t suggest a “product you might like” if their life depended on it. They have 19 years of purchase history for me spanning thousands of product categories. Want to know a category I’ve never looked at or bought from Amazon, women's handbags. What’s near the top of the suggestions right now on the homepage for me? You guessed it!

> Amazon can’t suggest a “product you might like” if their life depended on it.

Actually, there is one method they use to make suggestions that works very well.

If you have a wishlist, sometimes they'll recommend items from there.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#170

Post by speedgoose »

wrycoder wrote: post #96
ape4 wrote: post #22

You just bought a washing machine... could I interest you in a washing machine?

I buy a package of underwear. All I see for next three weeks on my browser is close ups of men’s briefs. It’s embarrassing, when associates glance at my screen.

I agree it can be embarrassing to not use an ad blocker.
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