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Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

strongtowns.org

611–620 of 1001 posts

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#611
post #96

There’s an audio version of the same point here: https://podcast.strongtowns.org/e/the-drip-drip-drip-of-traf... A ”best effort” summary of this article: if thousands of people die in once place, it’s one of the great tragedies in American history. However if thousands of people die in thousands different places, it is ignored and considered a fact of life. When a plane or train crashes, we stop everything and redesi…

> When a plane or train crashes

When a scheduled aviation passenger plane crashes.

GA (General Aviation, "private pilots") flights crash all the time, people in them even die most days. If it happened in their catchment it'd probably make your local TV news, but it won't be their main story and it won't be a national headline unless somebody "important" died. A few hundred people die this way, in the US, in a normal year.

The reasons are much the same as for private car ownership:

- The private pilot cuts corners. They cut corners on maintenance and fuel, they cut corners on training, they cut corners on procedures. So their plane may fail more often than it should, or when one thing goes wrong there's less slack left than there should be.

- The private pilot is subject to very relaxed medical requirements, especially in the US. So too often these pilots will become disabled in flight, and they're usually alone or with a non-pilot so if this happens they're probably dead.

- The private pilot's skills are poor, they're subject to minimal day-to-day oversight and few of them seek real development of their skills once qualified. This means when things go wrong the pilot is less likely to successfully recover from a situation which was salvageable.

- "Mission mindset" easily creeps in for private pilots. Particularly for weather, but also for loss of daylight, private pilots often have a purpose (e.g. "Get back in time for Sarah's wedding on Saturday" or "Fit in one more trip to the lake before winter") which causes them to make unwise decisions to press on into poor weather, deteriorating daylight, etc.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#612

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have a few friends that think the stats I show them are a complete lie and fabrication, but the truth is: more people from pistols than 'assault rifles'. In fact, in the US, more people die from knives than rifles. (not just the 'assualt ones' Heck more people per year in the US die of 'hands, fists, and feet'. [0] But guess what is always in the news, and talked about by politicians on both sides, until their cons…

The banning of assault rifles is because it’s easy and doesn’t detract from peoples lives at all. Assault rifles are for assault and we don’t need more assault. So why have them? Because a few people think it’s cool to own? Pistols and other Guns aren’t very effective at stopping deaths, but they’re perceived to be good defense, so banning them en mass is less palatable. NYC banned pistols once because it was often t…

>Assault rifles are for assault and we don’t need more assault. So why have them? Because a few people think it’s cool to own?

People who think this should have a grizzly bear run at them at least once.

Having seen it from a car I became pro-minigun instantly.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#613
post #537

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China represents 18% of the world's population, yet 0.07% of COVID-19 fatalities. Seems like there is some value in their approach.

There is no value in the Chinese approach. Protecting people from infectious disease can't possibly justify violating fundamental human rights, such as the right to free assembly?

Do you support the right of the polio-infected resident of Rockland County (a NYC suburb) to attend tonight’s basketball game? Would you be okay with him shopping at your grocery store, standing in line with you at the cash register?

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#614
post #482

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition, the extra expense associated with regulation to make planes ultra-safe makes it unaffordable for some people. Those people then go on to use a vastly less safe form of transportation.

This is confusing. You seem to be suggesting that we should let the kind of barely-competent people who typically operate & maintain automobiles with a minimum of attention also operate aircraft systems with a similarly casual approach in order to make it more affordable? The nature of aviation, where unplanned problems result in unplanned non-optional landings in random locations (instead of just pulling off the sid…

> You seem to be suggesting that we should let the kind of barely-competent people who typically operate & maintain automobiles with a minimum of attention also operate aircraft systems with a similarly casual approach in order to make it more affordable?

We do though. In America you can build/buy and fly your own airplane with no license, regulation or certification at all. The catch is that it must be a very small airplane; single seat, under 115kg empty, max 5 gallons of fuel, etc, etc. You can buy or build many of them for about the price of a motorcycle or used car.

They're fairly dangerous to the pilot, but are so small and light they probably don't pose much risk to others. Of course if one crashed straight into you, you'd probably die, but that doesn't happen very often.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#615
post #592
post #96

There’s an audio version of the same point here: https://podcast.strongtowns.org/e/the-drip-drip-drip-of-traf... A ”best effort” summary of this article: if thousands of people die in once place, it’s one of the great tragedies in American history. However if thousands of people die in thousands different places, it is ignored and considered a fact of life. When a plane or train crashes, we stop everything and redesi…

> When a plane or train crashes, we stop everything and redesign the entire network to prevent this from happening again. They do that because planes and trains are expensive and owned by big corps/government.

I can't speak to the government part, but the cost part can't be right.

There have been 20 commercial aviation incidents in the last 20 years in the US of any type and size that included any fatalities by any means. 7 of those included jets, with 1 being a 777, one a 767, and everything else 737 or smaller. A 767 costs about 100 million (list price 200, but the internet says you always get discounts..?)

So we'll ridiculously overestimate the per year cost of airplanes at 100 million, assuming fallaciously that these airplanes are always totaled (they're not) and that they're always 767s (they're not).

On the other hand, let's assume (optimistically) that fatal car crashes always total two people per car, and that they all occur in affordable $10,000 cars (the average new car last year cost almost 5x that at 47K). That gets you 10,000*20,000, or 200 million per year in auto costs.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#616
Author obviously has a service to sell but the illustrative comparisons here bother me.

Amtrak runs 300 trains a day, very rarely has accidents because the environment is so controlled.

The US runs 120 million cars and trucks a day. 93 fatal accidents a day, many through driver fault.

The risk profile is entirely different. We expect people to crash cars. It's why cars have seatbelts and airbags, and why Amtrak doesn't.

We don't ignore car crashes, we just pay a lot more attention to rail failures because it shouldn't ever happen. They're preventable. Automotive accidents aren't, yet.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#617
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A ”best effort” summary of this article: if thousands of people die in once place, it’s one of the great tragedies in American history. However if thousands of people die in thousands different places, it is ignored and considered a fact of life. My summary is different: if thousands of people die because the government specifically puts them in harm's way but doesn't give them the best available protection against…

A problem with your insurance incentive is that it only works for people who have insurance. It does nothing to deter uninsured drivers. The risk of dying in a car accident isn’t enough to stop some people from driving recklessly. Why would a penalty that only applies to the rare occasion when someone causes harm be any better of an incentive for people who seem to already assume they’re not going to cause harm by th…

> A problem with your insurance incentive is that it only works for people who have insurance. It does nothing to deter uninsured drivers.

Uninsured drivers who can pay compensation if they cause harm aren't the problem. The problem is uninsured drivers who are judgment proof, i.e., who have no significant assets with which to pay compensation. The way that problem is currently handled for driving is for auto insurance policies to include coverage if you get hit by an uninsured driver who can't pay compensation.

But, you say, what if I get killed by that uninsured driver? The answer is that you're already at risk from that today, because someone that reckless isn't going to be deterred by anything, since they're not reasonable people to begin with. In other words, the basic problem you point out, that some people aren't deterred by reasonable incentives against reckless actions, is a valid problem, but can't be solved by social engineering. Your only defense against drivers like that is to drive defensively so that you aren't the one that ends up being their victim. And more generally, your only defense against people who genuinely aren't deterred by reasonable incentives against reckless behavior is to avoid them.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#618
post #276
post #185

I think there's another reason too we "ignore" car crashes: loose coupling with politics. Say a DUI driver kills a random family of 5. Is that going to make national headlines? Probably not. Very little to be gained politically. It doesn't really enrage us because we love and celebrate alcohol too much to be capable of villainizing it like guns. So as a result, it doesn't spread very far on social media. Now say a ra…

Well, comparing guns and cars is just absurd. Many kinds of restrictions like age limits, requiring a driver license, requiring liability insurance, seat belt restrictions, speed limits, NHTA safety regulations that car manufacturers have to meet, speed traps by traffic police and so on... none of that exists for guns.

> none of that exists for guns.

This is entirely untrue.

In my state, for example, you must be at least 18 to purchase firearms generally and 21 to purchase handguns or semiautomatic rifles. Every sale has a mandatory criminal and medical background check. The transfer applications (state and ATF Form 4473) require listing your name, date of birth, address, declaration of citizenship, Social Security number, driver license number, etc. Firearms must be stored in "secure gun storage." They are not permitted on various types of school property or property being used by a school, public demonstrations, state capitol grounds, and so on. You can only discharge firearms in certain places. You must have a license to conceal one on your person. You cannot possess short-barreled shotguns or machine guns. You need special licensing for short-barreled rifles and suppressors. I'm excluding a bunch of stuff—mostly federal laws—but you get the point. Violating any of those laws is a gross misdemeanor or felony. Keep in mind I live in a state with relatively permissive firearms laws! The laws in plenty of other states are much more severe.

Purchasing, owning, and operating a vehicle is much more easier than purchasing, owning, or operating firearms.

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#619

Never owned a car of my own until two years ago. Our car has been hit three times in the last two years. Once totaled on the high way (another drivers fault) and twice while parked. Roughly 50K in damages across the two cars and 3 months in the shop doing repairs. We spent 20K on a new car after the old one was totaled and insurance paid out a fraction of what a similar car would cost. We've paid close to 2K in deduc…

Another anecdote on the other side of this: I've been driving since I was 15 for many thousands of miles and have only been involved in two incidents. Both my fault involving icy roads, but both where so minor that only paint damage occurred (no insurance involved). I live in the north-eastern United States for reference. Edit: I wouldn't say that my driving style is cautious either, I do drive attentively though.

Same here, I drove for 7-8 years (not that much though) and my major "accident" was with a thin and curvy tree that was on a dead spot of the rear mirrors while backing up. Was in 3 close calls where the results would have been much worse.

In motorbike in contrast, you touch a wet patch or a gravel bit and it slides right away, 2 minor accidents like that for a total of ~8 weeks driving motorbikes (minor since I knew there was gravel/water and was going really slow).

Re: Why we ignore thousands of daily car crashes

#620
post #418

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yep I believe that is a pretty well established cognitive bias called Illusion of Control [1]. Going down the rabbit hole of cognitive biases is a fascinating journey, and lot of them are relevant when driving a car. One I found especially interesting is specifically about how improving safety features may not reduce accidents as much as it could, because when people feel safer, they tend to take greater risks [2] [1…

Refusal to drink and drive is not an illusion. I've been refusing to do that successfully my entire life.

But other drivers can drink, and you can't do anything about that.

Are you a good enough driver to save yourself in this situation?

https://litter.catbox.moe/ed5an4.webm

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