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ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu

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Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#81

Post by mbesto »

Slackwise wrote: post #10
cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

I've always heard this, and so when I went for my first smart thermometer I went straight to Ecobee (which I'm very happy with btw).

So I gotta ask HN...what the heck was so popular about Nests?! It's one thing to be go after shiny lures like new iPhone apps or luxury items...but a Thermostat?!

Mind boggling...

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#82

Post by HWR_14 »

Slackwise wrote: post #10
cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

The ability to remotely activate it is useful in the case of erratic short term rentals. Other than that, I'm not sure of the point

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#83

Post by sarahlwalks »

As far as I'm concerned, the question is how ML/AI stacks up against the competition -- humans. I don't know, but I'd bet the answer is that ML is much better. Let's say at least 20 percent better, but I imagine it's much higher than that.

Second, this is only saying that right now, ML's performance is "not that good." It says nothing about future technical advances. If you look at the track record of ML in the past three decades, it's amazing, and if that performance is repeated in the next three decades, who even knows what things might look like. (Machine sentience? Maybe.)

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#84

Post by foobarian »

cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

Well, the main selling point when it came out was that it was the iPhone of thermostats. It was the only thermostat at the time that did not have a terrible UI cobbled together by communist residential block designers or people who think that setting your own IRQ pins with jumpers is fun. But yeah I never understood the point of the learning feature; maybe a checkbox that needed to be ticked or a founder's pet feature.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#85

Post by foobarian »

actusual wrote: post #6
cj wrote: post #3

While not exactly aligned to the research, I've been surprised how poor Nest Thermostat's learning feature is. The main selling point for Nest is having a "learning thermostat". Perhaps my schedule is just not predictable enough, but the auto-generated temperature schedules it generates after its "learning" period is not even close to what I would manually set up on a normal thermostat. Maybe I'm just an "edge case"…

Nah, you're not. I just gave up on mine and have a schedule. I also turned off "pre-cooling" because it would just kick on at like 6pm to "cool" the house for bedtime. I also bought several temperature sensors to use, which are fun. At night I have the thermostat use the sensor in my bedroom, then goes back to the main thermostat during the day.

See the next logical step is to outfit the output vents with servo-controlled actuators so you can fine-tune where the air is going!

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#86

Post by sarahlwalks »

bryanrasmussen wrote: post #62
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

>And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. If you have a fairly regular life I would think a schedule would outdo ML pretty much all the time, because you know exactly what that schedule should be. ML might be useful for a secret agent whose life is so erratic that a schedule would be useless. That is to say ML is maybe better than falling back to nothing.

One niche that ML seems to be growing into is /assisting/ humans, but not doing the whole task. ML might give you an image that is 90 percent what you want but needs a few tweaks.

If the task is clear enough, ML can take it on by itself, but this requires clear rules and an absolutely unambiguous definition of what winning means. For example, the best chess players in the world are machines, and are FAR better than the best human players. Same for Go (the game, not the programming language).

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#87

Post by IAmWorried »

It seems to me like the "generation" use case of ML is much more promising than the "prediction" or "classification" use case. It's tough to predict things in general because our universe is fundamentally uncertain. How is some computer going to predict that some mugger sees a target at some random spot and decides to mug them? But the progress in text to image and text generation really blows my mind.

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#88

Post by HWR_14 »

aaronax wrote: post #34

ML is there to maximize business income--nothing else. If ML was benefiting me, it would know that 90% of the time I fire up Hulu I plan to watch the next episode of what I was watching last time. And it would make that a one click action. Instead I have to scroll past promotional garbage...every single time. Assholes.

I don't know why you assume the goal is "help aaronax watch what he wants quickly" vs "make sure when aaronax switches to his next series/movie it's on Hulu"

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#89

Post by [deleted] »

bryanrasmussen wrote: post #74
capableweb wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If your schedule is so irregular/erratic, how is a ML algorithm supposed to be able to learn it? Sounds like in that case it's better to just control things manually.

ML can learn patterns that humans might not be aware of, so you there might be certain things that happen that show you will be on a mission to East Asia for a couple days.

[deleted]

Re: ML is not that good at predicting consumers' choices

#90

Post by miguelazo »

HWR_14 wrote: post #82
Slackwise wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Why am I sweating right now? Oh, the Nest set the temperature too high again!" And then after a few instances, I just turn off all the automation and set up a schedule like normal. Same with the "away from home" which seems to randomly think I'm away and I have no idea why. Oh, and the app doesn't show me filter reminders, only the actual device, which I never touch all the way downstairs. There's not even any statu…

The ability to remotely activate it is useful in the case of erratic short term rentals. Other than that, I'm not sure of the point

Which is something that a cheaper, more basic Honeywell model with way less surveillance potential can also do...
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