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The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

ourworldindata.org

41–50 of 126 posts

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#41
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The world is going to be much awful-er as climate change unfolds. Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed. The world has been getting better, and continues to get better. Unfortunately, I don't have a reference to it, but I recall attending a talk that charted out some kind of measure of wealth/welfare/well-off-ness based on various climate…

> The world has been getting better, and continues to get better ...and as a result of that, the world's population has been growing and growing (and the standard of living of this population has also on average improved), which leads to more CO2 emissions, a higher consumption of finite natural resources etc. etc. Now there are two possible theories: (1) things will continue to get better, if any problems will come…

>as a result of that, the world's population has been growing and growing

At first yes, but not recently, now the opposite is true, if anything. We haven't had exponential growth since the 60s and are currently headed towards a steady state population because of improved standards of living. Turns out health and properity leads to smaller families.

We do still have significant growth, but that is largely because we're filling out the older demographics in many countries, the birth rate is largely under control already, and once the current generations spread through we'll be in a stead state (around 11 billion). In fact, there's no way to _stop_ this growth now, short of killing or sterilising people, since the birthrate is already under control, we're just waiting for the last exponential generations to get old.

see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2LyzBoHo5EI

Long term, we probably should encourage (slightly) sub-2 children per family to let the total population shrink, but that will take a long time (unless something disasterous happens)

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#42
The world is aweful because the economic and political system is aweful. They're aweful because they're run by aweful people, who should spend time on something else rather than being a bad leader. And they're aweful because of the world is aweful.

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#43
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The world has been getting better, and continues to get better ...and as a result of that, the world's population has been growing and growing (and the standard of living of this population has also on average improved), which leads to more CO2 emissions, a higher consumption of finite natural resources etc. etc. Now there are two possible theories: (1) things will continue to get better, if any problems will come…

>as a result of that, the world's population has been growing and growing At first yes, but not recently, now the opposite is true, if anything. We haven't had exponential growth since the 60s and are currently headed towards a steady state population because of improved standards of living. Turns out health and properity leads to smaller families. We do still have significant growth, but that is largely because we'r…

Here too (as with anything) there are different opinions, all more or less scientifically founded:

https://www.science.org/content/article/experts-be-damned-wo...

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#44

> The world is awful. The world is much better. A better way to look at this is that we've made significant progress when it comes to solving some of the problems, but we've also created new ones that make it much worse than before. We can now grow enough food to feed the world (although we're doing a terrible job of distributing it to the world). However the food is much less nutritional and much more toxic than bef…

> although we're doing a terrible job of distributing it to the world Are we? Starvation and malnutrition used to be common and is now rare. https://ourworldindata.org/famines

Slowly but surely, the main problem with food is changing from "starvation" to "obesity".

Which is arguably just a different form of malnutrition, somewhat less deadly, but more of a chronic burden on the patient and the society.

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#45

> The world is awful. The world is much better. A better way to look at this is that we've made significant progress when it comes to solving some of the problems, but we've also created new ones that make it much worse than before. We can now grow enough food to feed the world (although we're doing a terrible job of distributing it to the world). However the food is much less nutritional and much more toxic than bef…

> although we're doing a terrible job of distributing it to the world Are we? Starvation and malnutrition used to be common and is now rare. https://ourworldindata.org/famines

In 2017 when that article was last updated, yeah sure. Not sure you can make that declaration in 2022. The combination of record poverty caused by Covid lockdowns and food supply chain disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine has put millions of people worldwide in famine conditions: https://www.reuters.com/world/world-faces-unprecedented-glob...

Exactly how bad it will get remains to be seen. But the causes of famine are generally political and in terms of total body counts the worst ones are basically "big country X really screws up" (e.g. China and the Soviet Union in the 20th century) and/or wars and I don't think we have any guarantee that those things won't happen again.

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#46

Is there a consensus on this organization (givewell.org)? I donate to French organizations I know and see their work directly, but have no experience with international ones such as this one. I would be most interested in ones that provide education capacities to girls but the one from the post concentrates on health related ones (which is of course great as well)

Give Well is a research organisation that publishes reports on the effectiveness of charities.

They do select a 'Top 9' of best charities for a range of issues, and also run a 'donation index' where you can allow your donation to be distributed to the top charities (purportedly without a fee being taken).

I've heard of Give Well being mentioned on various Stats podcasts (e.g. the BBC's More or Less) and Our World in Data is very reputable.

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#47
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Could you share some entry points to the criticism?

A great paper [1] (published by Linköping University) criticizes the book's unbalanced optimism and bias: "Factfulness actually employs a biased selection of variables, avoids analysis of negative trends, and does not discuss any of the serious challenges related to continual population growth. A policy based on the simplistic worldview presented in Factfulness could have serious consequences." [1]: https://www.resea…

But wasn't one of Roslings main points that we should strive to make Africa wealthy so that they get fewer kids? (Because the richer the country, the less kids are born) So basically his whole point was that he wanted to stop this unsustainable population growth in Africa.

Or am I misremembering?

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#48
post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems to me that the first two are statements, and the final one is a conclusion, which is the only one that's productive to focus on.

I think they all achieve different purposes. "The world is awful" highlights a problem that needs solving, a concrete goal "The world is better" tells you that something is working, which you can build on top of or improve "The world can be better" gives a proposal for a course of action While the 3rd might seem like the most useful, the 1st is extremely important too, because if the proposal fails then you need to f…

It's a nice narrative but the accuracy of it is questionable, there isn't really some grand historical march away from famine. We've just had a great run from 1980-2020. https://ourworldindata.org/uploads/2018/03/Famine-victims-si...

The situation in 2022 is not good, it will take time to see exactly how bad.

Famine correlates very closely with war -- if our recent period of relative global peace comes to an end it will probably return with a vengeance.

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#49

The world is aweful because the economic and political system is aweful. They're aweful because they're run by aweful people, who should spend time on something else rather than being a bad leader. And they're aweful because of the world is aweful.

> The world is aweful because the economic and political system is aweful. They're aweful because they're run by aweful people, who should spend time on something else rather than being a bad leader. And they're aweful because of the world is aweful.

Is there a reason you're spelling it that way?

Re: The world is awful, the world is much better, the world can be much better

#50

If we're talking the general state of the world... The world is going to be much awful-er as climate change unfolds. Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed. The world isn't going to be much better until climate change is addressed - if then. I think this trumps literally any statistical measure of well-being you could come up with.

> The world is going to be much awful-er as climate change unfolds. Climate change is not being addressed seriously currently, at all. And the trend is towards it not being addressed. The world has been getting better, and continues to get better. Unfortunately, I don't have a reference to it, but I recall attending a talk that charted out some kind of measure of wealth/welfare/well-off-ness based on various climate…

Has the world also been getting better for other species we share the planet with?

https://ourworldindata.org/biodiversity

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