Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

That sounds like they have a model of population demographics and try to “correct” their sample for various biases that effect likelihood of reaching and getting a response from people by reweighting the actual sample to match the expected demographics.

If actual views on the target issues are predicted well by demographics and independent of the response biases beyond their correlation with the demographics, this should work well.

If they aren't, though, this potentially magnifies the impact on the overall result of subsamples that are potentially most unreliable because of small size.

It's also an unfortunate consequence of game theory. If one party Gerrymanders and the other does not, that party will solidify their hold over the House tighter and tighter. They'll also solidify their grip on the states (who run the elections, and who set the rules on who can vote and when they can vote). Trying to play nice and believe in the system is a recipe for being eradicated - it's exactly what's happened to the Democrats for the last 20 years.

As an American citizen who listens to talk radio on roadtrips, I've thought that we were headed towards a civil war as early as Obama's presidency. I largely kept that prediction to myself, but it turns out that a lot of Americans feel that way or even want it to happen. My prediction was largely based on the language that radio hosts and call-ins were using to describe their elected leadership and their fellow citizens. It's gotten worse. Elected politicians are openly talking about civil war. Candidates are talking about hunting their opposition. If you think this narrative is being "pushed" you need to expand your sources of information.

It's not quite that simple. It goes back more than one election, at least back to the supposed Russia-Trump scandals (Steele dossier, etc.). Basically this happened:

- There was once a time when most every American believed that anyone could be elected President, then the following happened:

- Donald Trump was nominated for the Presidency,

- Prior to the election, branches of the federal government began investigating candidate Donald Trump(and everyone around him) for what?? - Anything and everything! False and misleading information was released to a press that was largely hostile.

- Donald Trump won the Presidency after a close election. The transition was difficult. Many in the federal bureaucracy opposed his incumbency. He and his continued to be under investigation as before, even though nothing tangible came of these investigations. Nonetheless Trump took to the office surprisingly well. The press continued their hostility.

The common man now saw that, while not anyone could become President, at least most any person could become President, but that person would have to have a very thick skin and be very rich b/c it was clear that, for the Swamp, the Press and the Democratic Party, a war on Trump had been declared. The common man felt a sharp twinge of unfairness to his very bones.

- After 4 years another hot election campaign was fought. Trump et al were still under investigation with promises of indictments daily. Democratic opposition leaders in Congress used their only significant tool, investigative committees, to question every move and more of the sitting President, his lawyers, friends and past friends. Meanwhile Democratic majorities in various states were modifying election laws to be more lax and lower scrutiny. This was noticed by even the Press.

- Joe Biden won the election by the slimmest of margins. Had it rained in a few states more the election could have gone the other way. such is the nature of politics in the USA. Federal agencies and Congressional committees continued their investigations of Trump et al, the Press continued to harass, and bureaucracies continued to balk at the reins.

- As the scales fell off his eyes, Donald Trump saw the incredible viciousness of politics in a free democracy. Being who he is, he fought with every tool he had to continue his Presidency, pursuing even the slimmest of options for hope. Judging from his competitive background in business, I would expect no less in politics. But it was for naught. He stepped down.

Today, 4 years after he left office, federal agencies continue to investigate Trump et al, as do Congressional committees. The Press continues to publish every lie and rumor, never looking back to consider that nothing substantial had ever been uncovered. Do you see a pattern here?

Common man sees his myths broken, sees that a fellow man, even one who is wealthy, cannot be President of the USA unless something changes. What must be done?

If voting margins are so close then the sanctity of the vote must be guaranteed. Ergo, moves to reduce/eliminate fraud.

If bureaucracies are reaching into the political realm for poltical reasons then they must be more closely monitored. Some may need to be eliminated, purged or reorganized.

If the Press has become captive to one party or one candidate, measures must be taken. Here I'm talking about FAANG as well as the usual Press.