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Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#181

Post by phkahler »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #126
maerF0x0 wrote: post #32

more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1]. I always try to…

A civil war isn't always a war by civilians. Consider a scenario where the government is increasingly turned into a mexican standoff between completely entrenched branches of government. Supreme court is completely doing its own thing, the president starts abusing emergency powers to circumvent a ceaselessly filibustering congress and senate. Nothing gets done, and the country starts suffering from neglect and misman…

>> Whether that is realistic today in the united states is another thing.

I didnt think a land war in Europe was a realistic thing in today's world, but here we are.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#183

Post by kkielhofner »

One of my very close friends is a retired Army Special Forces (Green Berets) veteran with a total of 11 combat tours. He's seen (read that as you will) a couple of actual civil wars.

He was once at a very right-leaning event and someone suggested we need a civil war. He's very right leaning himself but he immediately shut them down essentially saying they have no idea what they're wishing for or even talking about. Needless to say everyone there was well aware of his experience and credentials so that immediately closed the discussion. I don't know that it changed any minds but they at least shut up about it...

Whether this data is accurate or not, the fact that anyone is suggesting or frankly even mentioning a civil war in the US is so flippant, macabre, and ignorant it makes you question whether such a person lives in reality. Anything approaching an actual civil war in the US would be an absolute bloodbath.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#184

Post by westernmostcoy »

CSMastermind wrote: post #122
thr0wawayf00 wrote: post #29

One of the biggest problems is that most current gun violence doesn't necessarily represent any sort of targeted pattern (i.e. shooting up a political convention or party headquarters). It's malls and schools because that's such an easy way to create shock and awe. If we do wind up in some sort of civil conflict, I imagine it will look a lot like Ireland from the 60's to the 90's, which was by no means a good time.[0…

Yeah it's really hard to imagine a full blown civil war just because of what the battlelines would be in a right-left split in the country. I've heard people jokingly say, "One side collects guns and the other collects mental disorders." That's obviously an unfair shot but there's some truth to it. Left leaning areas tend to be centered around city centers where right leaning areas tend to be rural and control things…

Respectfully, this totally ignores that the funding for most things in this country comes right out of the cities. To use your terminology, "left leaning" places are ~70% of GDP.

Also, just because some guys in rural areas collect guns compulsively doesn't mean they are remotely capable of becoming an organized militia.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#186

Post by krapp »

lazide wrote: post #9
elil17 wrote: post #3

Is there any data to suggest whether public belief that a civil war is imminent is indicative of a civil war actually being imminent?

It probably doesn't help? That said, in the '70s it was probably 80%+ I don't see an ACTUAL (declared) civil war happening. None of the participants actually could I think, nor would they benefit from taking anything. Would Texas try to actually take Washington DC? Nah. Could they? No chance. Would the Feds do anything but setup sanctions/blockades and wait for Texas to beg to come back if they tried to leave? Nah. T…

> Would the Feds do anything but setup sanctions/blockades and wait for Texas to beg to come back if they tried to leave? Nah.

Texas represents two trillion dollars in revenue, billions of dollars in taxes, a big chunk of American agricultural, manufacturing and tech infrastructure, miles of coastline and ports and military assets like Fort Hood. The premise that the US would just let that go is laughable.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#187

Post by trasz »

petilon wrote: post #102

If a civil war happens, the blame will be on (1) social media and (2) politicians using topics such as abortion and guns to divide people in order to get votes. But politicians leveraging divisive topics to get votes is not new. What is new is social media. In the old days news was filtered, vetted and verified by reputable news services before being distributed. Now because of social media everyone is a publisher, a…

In the old days the reputable sources often spread the lies themselves - from local lobbying, to national propaganda, to churches.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#188

Post by waterheater »

ipnon wrote: post #48

The Civil War was preceded by a constitutional issue divided geographically. The question of slavery in new states was forced by pro-slavery presidents, congressman, and justices. They sought to erase all middle ground, the tenuous bridge maintaining the union. Once it came to blows, the geography of slavery allowed the slavery states to band together. The upshot is that not all of these factors seem possible at once…

Geography will always matter to a certain extent, but you elide the economic component of the Civil War. The business interests in the South were economically dependent on the existence of a slave-based economy. Northern states either moved to a different economic model or avoided it altogether. As such, the moral issues were much more front-and-center in the North, whereas Southerners were whipped around because of the economic aspect. As the quote goes, "It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it." I do think that differences between the urban and rural workforce are creating divergence, especially when you consider the increased population density and service-based economies we have today.

Generally, the coastal states have significantly diverged from the rest of the country, at least politically. As such, they tend to house and draw people with similar values. Value-based migration is not inherently problematic, as the population shift will increase competition between states and force reevaluation of certain policies, both among states losing and gaining different population segments. Real issues may start if a governor decides (and the associated governing apparatus then complies) that certain federal laws and judicial rulings will be ignored. We may be moving in that direction right now (see the NY governor's views on constitutional carry), and I hope we turn back.

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#189

Post by hunglee2 »

650REDHAIR wrote: post #106
hunglee2 wrote: post #52

eh...America is way too big (territorially) for civil war. I mean, how would you even organise it? There's not two sides which could cohere into organised military forces. Worst scenario will be an increase in temperature to what we already have now - anti-federalists who might engage in intimidation, street fights with rival groups and perhaps acts of sabotage and terrorism. In the grand scheme of things, fairly low…

It’ll be like The Troubles and you’ll think twice every time you ride a bus or go to a large social gathering.

yes, a reasonable analogue. Even so, I don't think anywhere near - US is far more intermixed, not as clear divisions between the two ideological tribes. There'll be vicious conflict alright but mainly online and under pseudonyms, punctuated periodically with an offline incident by some guy who takes it too far

Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon

#190

Post by chasd00 »

BurningFrog wrote: post #41
jonnycomputer wrote: post #7

Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"

And who would be fighting? Where would they fight? Twitter doesn't count!

that's a good point, all the strife is really online. It would be hard to translate that into widespread physical violence because people would have to put their phones down, go outside, and do it IRL.
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