Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
And who would be fighting? Where would they fight?
Twitter doesn't count!
Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#42Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
The voting system in the US (FPTP) is fundamentally unfair. Combine with post-red-map gerrymandering, it is becoming obvious even to the people "on the wings" that our election system fundamentally disenfranchises large swathes of the population. As a short hand, think "Democrats and Independents in red states" and "Republicans and Independants in blue states".
Being disenfranchised sucks. The system is designed to prevent you from having any ability to even change the system by using the system.
If everything is "ok", then people just ignore the political system. Buuuut... when people get scared (reasonably, or not), and the system is fundamentally unfair, their only option is violence.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#43Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
What was the last one for? “States’ rights”?
Fortunately there is no need to start a war over federal vs state power, given that the current supreme court is ruling in favor of state power, in recent court cases.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#44Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
What was the last one for? “States’ rights”?
The civil war happened because the abolition of slavery threatened the wealth and power of Southern elites. It was about wealth. I just don't see a similar situation right now.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#45Would love to see what percentage of Americans would be willing to fight in a civil war. My guess is it's a whole lot lower. 3 way civil war between left extremists vs right extremists vs the federal government?
I would be interested in seeing of who would be willing to fight in a civil war how many of them are physically able to fight in a war.
Also, how many are capable of organizing a civil war. How many are willing to take orders that would send them off to die for the cause. How many are willing to take orders at all.
Final test would be how many people are willing to just sit outside in August heat for an hour with no internet.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#46Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…
One thing that gives me comfort is that there is a difference between what they say on a poll, and what they actually do. Plenty of people are willing to say "I am willing to commit violence" on social media. My gut feeling is that if 4% say they will shoot someone, < 0.4% will actually do it.
A large fraction of people will shoot if someone they deem an authority figure says they have to and gives them a good reason to justify it.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#47Well, presidential systems like the US has mostly don't remain democratic for that long, we were lucky to have the spoils system moderating ideological conflict for most of our history and a period of unusually low polarization in the time since it ended. We've been seeing round of constitutional hardball like regular use of filibusters on every bill by the opposition that would have been unthinkable in 2000. But on the other hand we don't have senators seriously trying to kill each other on the senate floor like we did before the actual Civil War so as pessimistic as I am I'd be very surprised if things got as far as a civil war within the next decade. I wouldn't rule out a serious constitutional crisis though.
EDIT: I'd highly recommend How Democracies Die, The Revolt of the Public, and Why We're Polarized for understanding the current circumstances.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#48The Civil War was preceded by a constitutional issue divided geographically. The question of slavery in new states was forced by pro-slavery presidents, congressman, and justices. They sought to erase all middle ground, the tenuous bridge maintaining the union. Once it came to blows, the geography of slavery allowed the slavery states to band together.
The upshot is that not all of these factors seem possible at once today.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#49Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…
> For a reality check, consider that 1/8th of respondents said they would be willing to commit political violence themselves and 7.1% of respondents said they'd be willing to kill someone over politics.
God help us. It's almost impressive how biased this sample is. I'm dying to know what else the "Ipsos KnowledgePanel" thinks. Will report back with any eye rollers.