Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
One side believes that woke transgender illegals are stealing their jobs, homes, and children. It only takes one side to start a civil war.
Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
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Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#32more than half of americans are unfit for a bar fight let alone a war. I hate to say it but these kinds of surveys are pretty weak. I recall a friend who's a history buff telling me something along the lines of non-professional soldiers often refuse to shoot their firearms, or intentionally miss, because people often don't truly want to kill. A quick google suggests some credibility to this claim[1].
I always try to remember that survey science simply tells us what people say on surveys, not what is actually the truth.
[1]: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/killing-does-not-com...
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#33Is there any data to suggest whether public belief that a civil war is imminent is indicative of a civil war actually being imminent?
It probably doesn't help? That said, in the '70s it was probably 80%+ I don't see an ACTUAL (declared) civil war happening. None of the participants actually could I think, nor would they benefit from taking anything. Would Texas try to actually take Washington DC? Nah. Could they? No chance. Would the Feds do anything but setup sanctions/blockades and wait for Texas to beg to come back if they tried to leave? Nah. T…
Well, the incorrect part of you analysis is implying that right leaning states would start the war here.
Given the current state of upcoming election polls, local politics, and the supreme court, the right leaning states are going to get most of what they want.
They have no reason to secede, when they are winning the current politics battles, and are likely to win future elections in the next few years.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#34Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
And between where? Every state has strong red and blue regions. A second "civil war" is more likely to be terrorist campaigns like the IRA conducted rather than a war like the one the that northern states fought against southern states a century and a half ago.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#35Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…
> Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed)
Virtually no political polling is. I know of no political polling agency/company that submits their polls to peer-reviewed journals.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#36Civil war, for what? Every time I see this mentioned, I think, "for what?"
Yeah. I guess it's supposed to imply a red vs blue state conflict. Proud Boys versus Antifa fighting in the streets! MSNBC fans firing tear gas at Tucker Carlson viewers! Reylo shippers versus original trilogy fans, hitting each other with plastic lightsabers!
What's supposed to happen? Texas is going to invade California?
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#37I feel after January 6th it's definitely possible. I don't want it, and I wouldn't do anything to start it, but I could see it happening. And that honestly scares me the most. So maybe I'm one of those half.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#38History is full of civil wars which were fought for very clear reasons. Do we truly have CLEAR reasons?
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#39Source is apparently a preprint (that is, not peer-reviewed) uploaded here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.07.15.22277693v... > Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022; participants were adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. 8,620 respondents, but I don't see how they were recruited or how potential bias was accounted for. Given how weird some of the interne…
One thing that gives me comfort is that there is a difference between what they say on a poll, and what they actually do.
Plenty of people are willing to say "I am willing to commit violence" on social media. My gut feeling is that if 4% say they will shoot someone, < 0.4% will actually do it.
Re: Half of Americans anticipate a U.S. civil war soon
#40Anyone who wishes for a civil war has never seen war, full stop.
wish != anticipate