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Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

shouldibuytwitter.com

81–90 of 119 posts

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#81
I saw the "Buy my dog treats" link at the end and assumed it was the same as "Buy me a coffee". And I was like, "heck yeah I'll purchase some snacks for their puppy".

When in reality it meant, "shop at my dog treat store."

I don't have a dog myself so I didn't purchase anything haha.

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#83
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He signed that he knows everything he needs to know about the company and wants to buy it. Now he wants to back out with the claim that he actually did not know everything, which is a pretty hard sell. Though it's important to note that his lawyers are well aware that this will never fly and therefore the actual court case is them trying to find an edge case where Twitter actually broke the contract (that's the shodd…

He’s not claiming that he actually didn’t know everything, he’s claiming that Twitter lied in public filings not related to the deal.

As Levine has pointed out repeatedly, the statements he's claiming are false are pretty hard to falsify, as they essentially include the string "this statement might be false".

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#84

People seem to be discounting the fact that Elon still owns 9% of the company and is one of the largest shareholders. He just wants a chance to renegotiate as he know if he actually walks away he will lose around $5B.

Of course, if Elon's right, and Twitter has been showing ads to way more bots than anyone else has realized[0], than that's gonna seriously tank Twitter's value. So my question is: what did he learn between the point when he decided to buy all those shares at a high price and the point where he started making a stink about bots? He hasn't made any claims based on new information. Did he just spend a massive amount of…

You may not have thought this out. Why would an upwardly-revised bot count number, even a drastically revised number, tank Twitter's value? Click fraud has been an open secret for decades and did essentially nothing to harm Google's financials. People who buy large blocks of Twitter advertising do so for outcomes they themselves measure financially, not based on synthetic metrics.

If you don't have an especially clear answer to how that revision would harm Twitter's bottom-line numbers, my understanding is that you'd have essentially no hope of convincing the Delaware Chancery Court that a "material adverse event" had occurred. And that's, of course, before you get to the fact that the numbers we're talking about are hedged in the SEC filings.

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#85
post #63

> Normally, valuing a stock is hugely complex. But every once in a while, circumstances come along that make the math relatively straightsforward[sic]. This is one of those moments. Technically, we just moved the really hard part to the question of "what will Twitter be worth if the deal fails". For this to work as value strategy, you either need to be really good at estimating that hard price or assign a really low…

That's only part two of the hard question, part one requires knowledge of M&A law, Delaware corporate precedents and Delaware chancellery psychology/game-theory to establish odds of the deal being forced, cancelled or in-between. Then part three is establishing the probability Elon Musk of all people will follow thru any given ruling and what happens if he doesn't play ball.

I wonder if it's not easier to just project cash flows into the future. Or to play a number of other merger situation with more reliable participants, like Activision-Microsoft for 23% upside (versus Twitter's 42%).

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Of course, if Elon's right, and Twitter has been showing ads to way more bots than anyone else has realized[0], than that's gonna seriously tank Twitter's value. So my question is: what did he learn between the point when he decided to buy all those shares at a high price and the point where he started making a stink about bots? He hasn't made any claims based on new information. Did he just spend a massive amount of…

> "do it for the lulz" argument seems like one of the last best guesses available Or Musk is, was, and always will be, a financier, and is doing all this because at some point it made sense to his broader financial plans - dumping Tesla stock near its peak and minimizing the fallback. Then there was you know, an economic collapse, shortly after this started going into motion. Maybe, I don't know, the financial collap…

No way buying Twitter to justify selling Tesla stock is the simplest solution.

If he wanted to sell some Tesla, here's a simple way:

1) Tweet something: "Batteries are overpriced! I will start or buy a battery company, but I need a warchest to do it!"

2) Sell some Tesla stock

3) Don't do the battery thing. If you really need to justify yourself, just pretend some private discussions convinced you not to do it in the end.

This has the nice benefit of not being on the hook for tens of billions of dollars while accomplishing the same goal.

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#88
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He signed that he knows everything he needs to know about the company and wants to buy it. Now he wants to back out with the claim that he actually did not know everything, which is a pretty hard sell. Though it's important to note that his lawyers are well aware that this will never fly and therefore the actual court case is them trying to find an edge case where Twitter actually broke the contract (that's the shodd…

He’s not claiming that he actually didn’t know everything, he’s claiming that Twitter lied in public filings not related to the deal.

> He’s not claiming that he actually didn’t know everything

Yes; he is.

> he’s claiming that Twitter lied in public filings not related to the deal.

He explicitly claims that they are deeply related to the deal.

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could believe that there is a 100% chance Elon is forced to buy twitter at $54, but if the deal takes 10 years to close, I'm not buying in at $38.

It's filed in delaware courts which are famously fast. Expectation is 3-5 mo

But then Elon might ignore the ruling, and it's not clear what happens, or long it takes.

Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I could believe that there is a 100% chance Elon is forced to buy twitter at $54, but if the deal takes 10 years to close, I'm not buying in at $38.

It's filed in delaware courts which are famously fast. Expectation is 3-5 mo

That's how long it takes to get a ruling, but how long will it take them to enforce it?
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