Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
shouldibuytwitter.com
Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
1–10 of 119 posts
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#2Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#3Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
Do you have a link to the ML reporting?
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#4This needs a discount rate knob. We're no longer in a low interest rate environment!
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#5Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
Do you have a link to the ML reporting?
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#6Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
> Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
This isn't arbitrage at all. That is taking advantage of a price difference of an asset between two markets by buying and reselling it (nearly) simultaneously. If you are holding the asset longer than strictly necessary it isn't (only) arbitrage.
Your intended action is just timing the market: buying stocks based on the belief they will soon rise in price.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#7Seems like "Chance that Elon Musk forces Twitter to divulge really embarrassing info about their business prospects during trial" should be in here. If he gets away with just paying the $1B, it makes a big difference to how much Twitter is worth without him. But, even if this info exists, there is a <100% chance of it coming out in trial; Delaware court may anticipate this strategy and try to stop it.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#8It looks nice and feels snappy.
How did you build it?
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#9Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
> Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity. This isn't arbitrage at all. That is taking advantage of a price difference of an asset between two markets by buying and reselling it (nearly) simultaneously. If you are holding the asset longer than strictly necessary it isn't (only) arbitrage. Your intended action is just timing the market: buying stocks based on the belief they will soon rise in pri…
This is a classic merger arbitrage spread.
Re: Shouldibuytwitter.com – A tiny takeover arbitrage model for TWTR
#10Inspired by Matt Levine's awesome reporting on the Elon/Twitter purchase fiasco. Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity.
> Just a little app to model the arbitrage (gamble) opportunity. This isn't arbitrage at all. That is taking advantage of a price difference of an asset between two markets by buying and reselling it (nearly) simultaneously. If you are holding the asset longer than strictly necessary it isn't (only) arbitrage. Your intended action is just timing the market: buying stocks based on the belief they will soon rise in pri…
It doesn’t need to be simultaneous, just be very low risk. Usually simultaneous execution is a factor in having low risk though, but some deals take longer.
An example is Bill Gates buying DOS from SCP. The deal making wasn’t instant but he still bought it for a certain profit as he had the contract with IBM.