Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end • Hacker News Board

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#141

Post by caust1c » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:57 PM UTC

prichino wrote: post #121

eatsyourtacos wrote: post #8

Honestly I think this is obvious to anyone who is not financially motivated to think otherwise. The biggest problem is the rich have created a system in which people's future (retirement) is basically linked to "the market" growing over their lifetime. And the hopes that if they get lucky enough with the market they can retire early (or at all). This system of course is built 100% on governments/employers not wanting…

The problem is when a civilization stops providing ways for its inhabitants to keep winning inside of it, the civilization collapses. In Western civilization, if there is no growth, how will you motivate people to keep working? The only thing left is to steal from the people who already have things.

Many if not most philosophies and religions arise precisely to answer this very question. It's possible to live happily and healthily without growth.

People will always work because work needs to be done. Food, shelter, power, all of it requires active work by people. No stealing necessary. The laissez-faire rhetoric of "no growth, nobody to work" is exactly the problem mindset this economist is trying to address.

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#142

Post by zwkrt » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:57 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #134

eatsyourtacos wrote: post #8

Honestly I think this is obvious to anyone who is not financially motivated to think otherwise. The biggest problem is the rich have created a system in which people's future (retirement) is basically linked to "the market" growing over their lifetime. And the hopes that if they get lucky enough with the market they can retire early (or at all). This system of course is built 100% on governments/employers not wanting…

Retiring off of investment into the economy in return for a piece of the growth is a very happy situation for everyone involved. Companies get access to capital. Retirees get money to live off of. Capital is allocated to those who can make the most value in return. Retiring off of pensions is a zero sum game. Companies charge more to pay pensioners. Customers don't get any additional value, they just pay higher costs…

Right but the world is a bigger place than that of capital, customers, investors, and companies. That's the problem. As an example, there are trees, which is a class of thing that doesn't fit into any of those above categories. And even worse it doesn't really work, it just works maybe amortized over time for people who start far enough ahead.

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#143

Post by havblue » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:57 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #130

Ok, but... You better get used to higher taxes when you're of working age. And you better get used to reduced Social Security payments. Because these things rely on growth. You better get used to a flat stock market. If you want to live off your investments when you're old -- you're going to have to save a whole lot more. Growth helps governments inflate away their (very large) debts. In a static economy, this won't…

Ironically, economists know that people aren't obsessed with growth as much as just acting according to their own nature...

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#144

Post by orwin » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:57 PM UTC

uhuruity wrote: post #82

As someone with a graduate degree in economics: often when people think about 'growth' in a negative light, they're imagining an ever increasing use of resources to produce more output. But the desirable type of growth (in the economic discipline) is generally Total Factor Productivity growth: (very) roughly speaking, being able to produce more output with the same input. This is basically akin to technological progr…

People here also can calculate Pearson's coefficient between GDP and energy usage and understand by themselves that this is bullshit and that energy efficiency is less than minor in the grand scheme of things.

And those who did not brush up their math know about the theorical max efficiency of Carnot engines and can evaluate without calculation how much growth must be driven by efficiency increase and how much is driven by energy use increase. I mean, we did increase oil production by roughly 2-3 percent per year. If Carnot engines efficiency had risen as much as growth in the last 50 years, we would have those infinite energy motors...

And there is probably a lot of other way to reach that conclusion without thinking about it. I don't understand why people don't just think about it.

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#145

Post by skybrian » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:58 PM UTC

chobeat wrote: post #123

uhuruity wrote: post #82

As someone with a graduate degree in economics: often when people think about 'growth' in a negative light, they're imagining an ever increasing use of resources to produce more output. But the desirable type of growth (in the economic discipline) is generally Total Factor Productivity growth: (very) roughly speaking, being able to produce more output with the same input. This is basically akin to technological progr…

under capitalism, this simply doesn't happen. More efficiency due to automation or other factors always result in constant hours worked, resources exploited more efficiently, humans squeezed harder and less worker's autonomy. Any reduction in the work time was won by unions and as soon as they were destroyed, we got stuck with the 40 hours workweek. Your narrative worked maybe one century ago: now the world is on fuc…

You're misunderstanding the argument. Hours worked can remain the same while production and wealth increase. There are many jobs this isn't true of, but there are enough where it is true that that it can drive up housing costs. (A few rich people wouldn't be enough to do that, so there have to be lots of people.)

A better counter to this argument is that national averages are misleading and irrelevant for many people.

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#146

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:58 PM UTC

eatsyourtacos wrote: post #8

Honestly I think this is obvious to anyone who is not financially motivated to think otherwise. The biggest problem is the rich have created a system in which people's future (retirement) is basically linked to "the market" growing over their lifetime. And the hopes that if they get lucky enough with the market they can retire early (or at all). This system of course is built 100% on governments/employers not wanting…

[deleted]

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#147

Post by Aperocky » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:59 PM UTC

pyuser583 wrote: post #135

mc32 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not an economist and don't pretend to be... For thousands of years of our existence, progress was very slow and sometimes we went in reverse in some regions. Economic growth plus innovation resulted in progress and pulled the 99% who were not wealthy out of utter subsistence poverty over the last few hundred years. Also, we cannot grow forever (unless we figure out how to colonize other planets). We have to figur…

Why can’t we have economic growth forever? Economic growth is fueled largely by innovation. What it is the barrier to perpetual innovation? Will Apple say “Sorry, no more new iPhone versions. All out of ideas?” And all their competitors agree?

> What it is the barrier to perpetual innovation?

Physics and humans shortsightedness.

There are limited resources on Earth and by the looks of it we're stuck here for the long haul.

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#148

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:59 PM UTC

caramelcustard wrote: post #62

Encouraging stagnation among the easily impressionable English-speaking audiences of the economically successful nations i see. Good luck convincing certain Asian countries that they should stop their growth in the name of the "steady-state economy" just because. It's amusing how he goes from "...You can do fantastic computations now with a small material base in the computer..." to criticizing the concept of GDP ("W…

[deleted]

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#149

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:59 PM UTC

DoreenMichele wrote: post #140

When your caterpillar morphs into a butterfly, harping on how your butterfly is "failing to thrive according to standard, well-established caterpillar metrics used globally for the past thousand years and certified as super duper accurate for caterpillars by many respected institutions." is basically gibberish that says damn near nothing about the state of the butterfly's actual health for which we have zero establis…

[deleted]

Re: Pioneering economist says our obsession with growth must end

#150

Post by BlargMcLarg » Mon, Jul 18, 2022, 10:59 PM UTC

prichino wrote: post #121

eatsyourtacos wrote: post #8

Honestly I think this is obvious to anyone who is not financially motivated to think otherwise. The biggest problem is the rich have created a system in which people's future (retirement) is basically linked to "the market" growing over their lifetime. And the hopes that if they get lucky enough with the market they can retire early (or at all). This system of course is built 100% on governments/employers not wanting…

The problem is when a civilization stops providing ways for its inhabitants to keep winning inside of it, the civilization collapses. In Western civilization, if there is no growth, how will you motivate people to keep working? The only thing left is to steal from the people who already have things.

You don't need growth in zero-sum areas or areas that would make us face environmental collapse for people to want to survive and see their needs met.

Perishable goods still exist. People will still work to create perishable goods to consume. They will still change cultures and create solutions in areas where the game is not (pseudo-)zero-sum.

You also can't grow everything forever, as real estate is showing. If your concern is people stealing, that's an obvious target.