The AI Battle
aifuture.substack.com
The AI Battle
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Re: The AI Battle
#2New AI applications by OpenAI and Google are poised to take over creative jobs and much more. This will be a major disruption to jobs, the economy, and life as a whole. Here’s my take on how it will impact your job or business, your investments, and your life.
Re: The AI Battle
#3If we don't implement universal basic income, we are utterly screwed.
Markets where one side is desperate are inelastic, which means that a small change in supply or demand can cause huge price swings. Usually, this works against those who are out of power; for example, oil producers can cause price spikes if they can hold a cartel together. The job market is also extremely inelastic. We might only see 10 or 20 percent of truck-driving jobs automated out of existence by 2032, but that will have devastating effects on wages.
The idea that this only threatens low- and middle-skill workers is also absurd. Look at programming. Agile Scrum has given managers the ability to replace those expensive, fussy high-skill experts with chain gangs of far less capable people who barely qualify as software engineers. If it can happen to software engineers, it can happen to anyone, and the broad-based effects on the labor market (collapses of one industry triggering refugee crises into other ones) are going to be horrible.
Anything you do as a subordinate can and will be automated, if not entirely, at least enough to make possible a massive wage cut. Of course, that's not a bad thing. On its own, it's the opposite. The problem is that the financial penalties associated with automation invariably go to the workers, and the benefits go only to capital.
We have about ten years left on the "if ya doesn't work, ya doesn't eat" model.
Re: The AI Battle
#4No post body was provided.
Re: The AI Battle
#5New AI applications by OpenAI and Google are poised to take over creative jobs and much more. This will be a major disruption to jobs, the economy, and life as a whole. Here’s my take on how it will impact your job or business, your investments, and your life.
No post body was provided.
Re: The AI Battle
#6If we don't implement universal basic income, we are utterly screwed. Markets where one side is desperate are inelastic, which means that a small change in supply or demand can cause huge price swings. Usually, this works against those who are out of power; for example, oil producers can cause price spikes if they can hold a cartel together. The job market is also extremely inelastic. We might only see 10 or 20 perce…
No post body was provided.
Re: The AI Battle
#7If we don't implement universal basic income, we are utterly screwed. Markets where one side is desperate are inelastic, which means that a small change in supply or demand can cause huge price swings. Usually, this works against those who are out of power; for example, oil producers can cause price spikes if they can hold a cartel together. The job market is also extremely inelastic. We might only see 10 or 20 perce…
Thanks for reading my deep dive and your comment. If we zoom out to one year ago, most non AI-savvy people would have considered it preposterous that a graphics designer could become AI automated anytime soon. I believe, similar to you, that we are in the same position with software development becoming automated. Most tech people consider it preposterous right now, but watch it happen in the next couple years.
My point about the highly skilled creative workers retaining jobs is that they may have a year or two of lead time before they too get automated by the AI-job suite.
Re: The AI Battle
#8Any bets on when the majority of software development is automated? My estimate based on the exponential improvement rate of AI on various tests like MMLU and MATH is within 3 years. I know that might sound crazy, but a year ago it would have been crazy to think that graphics design jobs could be automated by an AI in 2022.
Feel free to disagree and discuss why.
Re: The AI Battle
#9Any bets on when the majority of software development is automated? My estimate based on the exponential improvement rate of AI on various tests like MMLU and MATH is within 3 years. I know that might sound crazy, but a year ago it would have been crazy to think that graphics design jobs could be automated by an AI in 2022. Feel free to disagree and discuss why.
I think the biggest issue is that those language models are still very limited by transformer window (2k tokens, each word usually consists of 3 tokens), and there is no visible improvement over this.
Your problem, code base don't fit into 700 words, you have no luck.
Re: The AI Battle
#10This very much requires acceptance of the worse-is-better model. That "beautiful" drawing of an an astronaut riding a horse is aesthetically... crap. It may take a person 5 hours to paint or draw that, but, arguably, a person wouldn't.
GPT-3 might generate a novel, but, generally speaking the prose is jarring and awful to read, because there is no intent (danger: philosophically loaded word) behind it. It's all automated collages and they all feel... cheap.
The world is beginning to discover that polyester isn't very good. It's bad for the skin, bad for the environment, and terrible for human health in general (microplastics generated from washing polyester give a medium for increases in algal blooms in coastal waters... etc.). It is cheap, but we're going to figure out it isn't good, and stop making or buying it (I hope).
DALL-E and GPT-3 are the polyester of design and creative construction. They're cheap; aesthetically uncomfortable. We'll turn to humans for high-quality design until we actually get AGI, and those systems are not a path to AGI.