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Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

spectrum.ieee.org

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Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#91
post #12
post #10

At least for the US why not keep one or more nuclear missile subs in the Great Lakes? Lake Superior alone covers 31,700 square miles to an average depth of 483 feet. It’s far to large an area to target with a first strike and well protected from non US/Canadian forces. Edit: A US/Canadian treaty demilitarized the Great Lakes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rush–Bagot_Treaty

The idea is subs deliver missiles halfway around the world, the rockets do the rest. It’s a matter of an hour for a rocket to transit from the Great Lakes to the other side of the planet, but half that for rockets fired from most of the way there already.

That’s part of the idea. Another is, as parent suggests, survivability and stealth.

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

subs can deny access to an incoming navy by sinking them

Can nuke subs do that much damage to a ship? I thought they were equipped to hide from everything and deliver massive damage to large land-based targets.

Different classes of subs are specialized to do different things. Some specialize as missile platforms, some specialize in hunting other submarines. Many can do both at least to some extent.

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#93
Bit of a tangent, but the 'mutually assured destruction' meme is a cold-war-era concept relying on some strong assumptions - namely that any country would be able to credibly claim that they could take out US strike capabilities in the first place.

Russia claims to have inherited that capability from the Soviet union, but that claim looks increasingly suspicious, with the war in Ukraine exposing not only systemic corruption in the Russian military, but also near-total failure on the intelligence front: officials were lining their pockets with funds destined to maintain and enhance military capabilities, and Russian generals were greeted with precision strikes upon arrival in Ukraine. If they can't keep their sh*t secret from Ukraine, how could they hope to keep a nuclear launch order secret from the US? A nuclear arsenal also requires expensive upkeep to remain functional, money that might also have been used to buy fancy appartments and yachts in London, Cyprus,... At this point it's questionable whether Russia would even be able to launch a succesful first strike and not see it intercepted by the US (they might still be able to land more than zero succesful strikes, but taking out US strike capabilities is a wholly different ball game).

Of course it's possible that other players might rise to be a threat, but basically I'm saying we should first check how realistic the scenario is before analyzing the whole situation through the lens of those overly simplified game theory models.

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#94
post #10

At least for the US why not keep one or more nuclear missile subs in the Great Lakes? Lake Superior alone covers 31,700 square miles to an average depth of 483 feet. It’s far to large an area to target with a first strike and well protected from non US/Canadian forces. Edit: A US/Canadian treaty demilitarized the Great Lakes. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rush–Bagot_Treaty

Not exactly the same but there has been consideration given to store ICBMs in lakes amongst other things: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/air-force-considered-f...

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#95
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Shortening the time to target is one of the benefits (well, is that really the right term here?) of submarines, yes, but another is survivability for a retaliatory strike as a deterrent. Trident missiles have at least a 7,500 mile range. A couple in the Great Lakes would provide that with complete safety against Russian hunter-killer subs.

Russian subs are already in the Great Lakes.

Passing through Montreal and Quebec City at 27' of depth in the dead of night (challenging for a Yasen at 32' draft but possibly some freak condition might make it possible) a few drunks watching in awe as it slides silently under bridges. River patrol craft carefully edging out of the way (a tearful salute offered to brave comrades, perhaps a lifted glass of Vodka or a gentle pat on the wallet to acknowledge regular payment). Other patrol craft can be seen lying idle by the side of the water due to their crew celebrating "arranged" events, or being "taken out" by the KGB (or whatever they've taken to calling themselves now).

Now it runs through Lake Ontario and spends a day lolling in the deep cold waters there before night falls once more and enters the Nigara river (oh shit, you see where this is going) and starts the run through Nigara City.

At full speed the most daring Naval maneuver of all time is about to be attempted. Now, finally, the true value of the Yansen class will be revealed as two vast titanium wings snap out from under the hull and the super-cavitating bubble generator is deployed. The hidden rocket engines on the rear of the boat ignite. The submarine fills with the stench of human excrement as the whole crew void their bowels in unison and the Russian sub leaps from the water in front of Nigara falls and..

oh I give up.

Just when HN seemed to have settled into semi-intelligent tech talk we get this.

Sheeech

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#96

Seems naive that, as the article claims, nations might agree to limit their detection technology to enhance survivability of their adversaries’ nuclear forces. If “ocean transparency” comes to pass, it seems much likelier that we’d have to deal with a realignment of the MAD calculus.

It's even more absurd than the idea that nations would curb their CO2 emissions (beyond token gestures) to stave off climate change.

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#98
post #95
post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russian subs are already in the Great Lakes.

Passing through Montreal and Quebec City at 27' of depth in the dead of night (challenging for a Yasen at 32' draft but possibly some freak condition might make it possible) a few drunks watching in awe as it slides silently under bridges. River patrol craft carefully edging out of the way (a tearful salute offered to brave comrades, perhaps a lifted glass of Vodka or a gentle pat on the wallet to acknowledge regular…

While the parent post here is (I hope) a joke, the reply here is beautifully written and now I want a full length story of how this could happen.

Re: Will AI steal submarines’ stealth?

#100
post #93

Bit of a tangent, but the 'mutually assured destruction' meme is a cold-war-era concept relying on some strong assumptions - namely that any country would be able to credibly claim that they could take out US strike capabilities in the first place. Russia claims to have inherited that capability from the Soviet union, but that claim looks increasingly suspicious, with the war in Ukraine exposing not only systemic cor…

> Russian generals were greeted with precision strikes upon arrival in Ukraine. If they can't keep their sh*t secret from Ukraine, how could they hope to keep a nuclear launch order secret from the US?

It's worth noting that the targeting information for these strikes came from the US.[0]

Officials in the Biden administration first boasted about the role of US intelligence in these strikes, but the administration then decided that acknowledging US involvement in strikes on Russian generals is unwise.[1]

0. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/politics/russia-genera...

1. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/09/us/politics/biden-lend-le...

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