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Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

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Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#201

Post by agent008t »

ransom1538 wrote: post #59

I would purchase a history book. Anything that goes back 100 years or more (US history, Chinese history, fucking anything). Read it. You are living in the easiest -- most cushy time ever. "Culturally, we seem to be getting worse at getting along with each other." Are you insane? Just 75 years ago Germany was putting people into ovens. Toughen up.

100 years or more is the key here. Post-WW2, things were very good in the US, and getting better in Europe. Now the future does not look so optimistic for the US or Europe.

But sure, it could be far worse.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#202

Post by mabbo »

The things that we often fight over are becoming less serious problems.

Energy? Fusion is almost there, finally. Money is pouring into it because it actually looks like it's happening now. We'll see it in our lifetimes. Solar, wind, and batteries are booming everywhere. Fossil fuels are always located in some patch of land, some piece of a country, and someone could own it all or fight over it. But the new energy tech can go wherever it's needed. There's no need to fight.

Health? I think the SARS-CoV2 pandemic was a resounding success. We proved out a technology- mRNA vaccines- which can make a vaccine to any protein in days. We saved millions, maybe hundreds of millions, of lives. All the delays in rolling it out were due to safety checks and logistics. This same technology is going to be applied to cancers, possibly HIV, and who knows what's next. It's huge. And it's one of many techs that are happening today in health.

Food? In the last decade, food has become the cheapest it's ever been. Farmers are going broke because there's just too much competition- sucks for them, but wow is that great news for the rest of us. Hunger used to exist because of scarcity. Now it only exists because of greed. I think we can fight greed more easily than scarcity.

Even the prospect of nuclear war- which is at the highest risk in decades- is not as high as it's been in the past.

It's a bit like looking at the economy for the last 6 months and saying "My god, it's the end of economics!" while ignoring the previous 12 years of boom.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#203

Post by bryanlarsen »

agent008t wrote: post #200
bryanlarsen wrote: post #45

In the short term, all the fundamentals of the economy are doing well -- unemployment rate, corporate profits, wages are up, et cetera. Sure the stock market is doing poorly. The stock market isn't the economy.

Yet it used to be possible to buy a house and support a family with children on a single income, and now you would struggle to do it on two incomes. That does not sound like a big success for the economy to me. Perhaps a reason to be optimistic is that this trend will reverse, but it is hard to see a road to that. In the medium term, we are looking at a large population of retirees to be supported by a dwindling work…

You used to be able to buy an 800 square foot house on a single middle class income, live on spam and potatoes, et cetera. It's still possible to buy a mobile home, eat spam and potatoes and support a family on a single middle class income.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#204

Post by agent008t »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #203
agent008t wrote: post #200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yet it used to be possible to buy a house and support a family with children on a single income, and now you would struggle to do it on two incomes. That does not sound like a big success for the economy to me. Perhaps a reason to be optimistic is that this trend will reverse, but it is hard to see a road to that. In the medium term, we are looking at a large population of retirees to be supported by a dwindling work…

You used to be able to buy an 800 square foot house on a single middle class income, live on spam and potatoes, et cetera. It's still possible to buy a mobile home, eat spam and potatoes and support a family on a single middle class income.

The two scenarios are not comparable. For example, they would result in very different social environments, different access to education, employment etc.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#205

Post by agent008t »

greatminds wrote: post #199

China lifted billions of people out of poverty. India has been improving as well in that front. That means billions of people will go to bed without an empty stomach and wake up with much more hope than in the previous decades. The world order is changing rapidly and moving towards a multi-polar world. That means the US and the west cannot impose their will on countries that doesn't suit their interests. Regime chang…

The time of a changing world order is usually a time of war. I am not sure why you think it would lead to a more peaceful world.

Furthermore, I am not sure a world dominated by China would be more free and peaceful than a US-dominated world order.

I would also disagree with you assertion that the troubles around the world are due to US efforts to contain China. China could have easily stopped Russian aggression in Ukraine, but chose not to. China could have left Hong Kong with its autonomy, but did not. Had it made different decisions on those two issues, it could have gained tremendous soft power in the West, leading to pressure on Western governments for friendlier relations, peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue, and greater role in world affairs. As is, China has demonstrated that a world dominated by China would not be a nice one, and left the West with no choice but to resist its growth.

Now, I do realize that this view may be naïve, and that the US would have been resisting the rise of China regardless, leading to conflicts. Unfortunately, there is not an international mechanism for peaceful transition of power.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#206

Post by daenz »

_y5hn wrote: post #177
daenz wrote: post #145

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In what universe is being happy about the prospect of human extinction considered "perfectly healthy" ?

Rejection is a healthy response to a toxic culture.

However healthy "rejection" is is greatly overshadowed by how unhealthy it is to consider all human life as toxic.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#207

Post by lcall »

Don't (ever!) give up on life, be patient, be reasonable/honest/kind toward yourself & others, and continue forward. Things will eventually be OK (even if hard), especially if we try to do what we know is right.

And to help find purpose and real balance in life, I have thought & written much at my simple web site (in profile; hopefully very skimmable; no sales; see the "things I want to say" (about 1/2-way down), then "purpose in life..." and its sibling "on peace amid commotion", and feel free to send comments). Again, things can be OK.

To bring joy and stability, I think one's purpose needs to be realistic and partly or largely unselfish, and well-founded.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#208

Post by greatminds »

agent008t wrote: post #205
greatminds wrote: post #199

China lifted billions of people out of poverty. India has been improving as well in that front. That means billions of people will go to bed without an empty stomach and wake up with much more hope than in the previous decades. The world order is changing rapidly and moving towards a multi-polar world. That means the US and the west cannot impose their will on countries that doesn't suit their interests. Regime chang…

The time of a changing world order is usually a time of war. I am not sure why you think it would lead to a more peaceful world. Furthermore, I am not sure a world dominated by China would be more free and peaceful than a US-dominated world order. I would also disagree with you assertion that the troubles around the world are due to US efforts to contain China. China could have easily stopped Russian aggression in Uk…

The term "Russian aggression" alone gives a glimpse into the false narratives we are fed.

We never heard US aggression. Did the US leave the Cuba, Venezuela, Vietnam, Nicaragua alone? No. Then why we never heard of US aggression.

For decades, an active geopolitical cat and mouse games has been going on in the world . However, we hear only one side's narrative.

In geopolitics if one side pursue an aggressive strategy to contain another nation, for instance expanding NATO eastwards or changing a regime by other means for instance Ukraine 2014 revolution and have the propaganda mechanism powerful enough to label the other side is the aggressor, we won't see the whole truth.

That's why we tend to have the belief that the US dominated world order is good.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#209

Post by tim333 »

Immortality. We're on the cusp of the singularity type stuff where we can live on in some kind of AI form. If you zoom out on history it goes roughly big bang, planets form, biological life evolves and gets smart, bio life is superseded by tech evolution. We're privileged to be alive at the one time in tens of billions of years that it happens.

Plus the Pinker stuff - less war, more prosperity and so on. Things seem worse than they are because doom sells newspapers, cyberpunk novels and the like.

Re: Ask HN: What makes you optimistic about the future?

#210

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

jamal-kumar wrote: post #174
2-718-281-828 wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

how is being killed by a lion manly?

Oh that part is just a dumb joke. It's just thinking in the broader picture, people have been getting eaten by wild cats for thousands of years. We can continue doing that sustainably for another unit in the thousands of years. But if things start getting nuked? At BEST you happen to be in the far reaches of the Patagonia or maybe New Zealand, and even then the fallout may cause agonizing death. At least if you get i…

This must have been a small lion. A full grown lion will hit you like a train.
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